With the Switch 2 (probably) releasing next year, I thought it could be fun to bet on the games you think are likely to be launch titles and to give my own thoughts on the matter. I know this is a bit early and there's not much to go on, but in a few years there could be some hot takes on this thread that seemed impossible and ended up coming true, which is always fun to see.

I have no idea how to set up the betting feature on here so the bets are just for fun. That said I'll put $100 vgc bucks on each prediction if I ever take the time to figure out how to do so. 

3D Mario - At this point I think a new 3D Mario is as close to a given as we can get. The last fully  new 3D Mario game was Mario Odyssey (I don't count Bowser's Fury) which released on 2017. It would grab headlines, be a graphical showcase,  and bring an instant "must have" game to the new system. The only reason I could see this not launching with the Switch 2 is if they wanted to hold off the release to coincide with the release new Mario movie in 2026, but I'm betting that won't be a factor. This will be a launch day title. 

2D Mario - no chance. Mario Wonder just released at the end of 2023. 4th Holiday season is when this will launch. 

Mario Maker 3 - I think this has a decent chance to come out in the first year of the Switch 2, but I think it's less likely to be a launch game because they'll already have their 3D Mario in that spot. *Bonus bet* I think they'll introduce 3D Mario Maker with this iteration but it will be limited to Mario 64 graphics. 

3D Zelda - again, no chance. ToTK came out in 2023 and took over 6 years to release after BoTW. Maybe a remake/remaster of one of them will release but no full-fledged new game. 3rd holiday season is when this will launch. 

2D Zelda - The last non-remake 2D Zelda game (starring Link) was released on the 3DS over a decade ago. I think it is time for a new one, and I think it will launch within the launch window of the system. *Bonus bet* It won't be a remake of Zelda 2, but will be similar in gameplay. Meaning that you can level up your stats, learn new moves, and it will have side-scrolling segments where the battles take place. 

3D DK - I think the 3D Donk is dead.

2D DK - If a 2D Zelda doesn't happen then I think this will take its place in the launch window. Obviously retro studios is busy with Metroid Prime 4, so it will be a different team making this, but it has to be in development, right?

Arms 2 - this is a weird one. I think the first game had people excited pre-launch, but it kinda flamed out and had a mixed reception. I don't expect a sequel, but I expect some other motion-heavy or gimmicky game to take its place in the launch window line up. 

Kid Icarus - I think this will be a surprise announcement. A brand new fully 3D Kid Icarus game will launch with the system. *Super Ultra bonus bet* This will show off the currently unannounced VR possibilities of the system. No cardboard required, but it will be require an accessory to fully utilize.

Mario Kart 9 - This will launch during the first holiday season of the Switch 2, so depending on when the system launches it will be in the launch window. It will also be playable in VR. *Bonus bet* Online team mode will be in this game. Microphone will be built into VR accessory. Easy voice chat with friends like it's 2005!

Xeno game - I think Monolith Soft has shown they produce games quickly, but I think it's too soon after XBC3 and Future Redeemed to expect a game in the launch window. Second or third year is when this will launch. 

F-Zero - A remake of F-Zero GX in the launch window with a new F-Zero coming a couple years later. 

Paper Mario - Won't be in the launch window. I expect a new iteration of the series to launch in the second year of the system. 

Mario Party - second year of the system is when this will launch. 

*Extreme Bonus Bet*

Wario Farty - New game that is part Wario Ware and part Mario Party will be in the launch window. This game will feature fully voice acted cut scenes with real fart sounds from the cast from super Mario Brothers 2 movie. 

My predictions, in order of likelihood:

• One of Nintendo's mega franchises that hasn't seen a new release in 5+ years, so that means either a new Mario Kart, Smash Bros,, or 3D Mario.
• At least one new IP that's a bit gimmicky and makes use of the console's new features.
• Cross-release of a Switch game that's due to release around the same time. So one or two of: Metroid Prime 4: Beyond, Pokémon Legends: Z-A, and Professor Layton and the New World of Steam.
• An upgraded port of TotK.
• One fan-pleasing revival of a smaller IP, like F-Zero, Kid Icarus, EarthBound, Star Fox etc.

Plus of course a bunch of third parties and indies for the online service too.

I'm waiting for Nintendo to introduce new IP, like new core IP single player games. I'd really like to see them tackle an open world game that isn't Zelda but a new IP. They play it too safe and rely too much on IP that's cemented. I'm tired of Mario and Zelda. If it's gotta be established IP, I'd like to see a new Fire Emblem game in the vein of Three houses but expanded upon and change the formula up a bit or give us a new Astral Chain game.

3D Mario always makes sense. And it has been a while as well.

To me this whole ordeal will depend on the release date of the new system because I will make my prediction with the thought that the Switch sucessor will release in between March/April nest year.

- The launch day, aside from 3rd party offerings day one, will have two first party games available. First is Metroid Prime 4 Beyond. It'll be a locked 60FPS in both docked/undocked modes (4K DLSS? docked/1080P undocked) experience with some better texture details and shadow resolutions, etc ...

- Another launch day game will utilize the Switch sucessor new capabilities in interesting ways. Don't expect it to be 1,2, Switch branded with how the well has been poisoned with that IP.

- Mario Kart 9 or 10 or whatever will be slated for a May/June release date. As usual, it's strength is not how much it can pull off day one( despite the fact I think it would be the biggest launch of the franchise anyway) but how it can do in the long run.
People will crap their pants when they see how much content the MK team has in the game that isn't just courses (32 courses at launch, expansion pass for additional courses later), but mission mode will be back ! Also instead of Retro Cups, they will be replaced by Legacy Cups which will feature half the tracks as returning tracks while the other half is of new tracks thematically from other Nintendo franchise like Kirby, Metroid, Zelda, etc ...

- The fabled new 3D Mario game is slated for an October release. Could be a sequel to Odyssey or a brand new adventure about a new setting specific for the adventure. Game will aim for a solid 4K DLSS(or an upscaling technique in house)/60fps there too. People will however be disappointed that the graphics themselves aren't that much of a leap from Odyssey because I suspect it won't be a priority for Nintendo with the game. It'll still look great however and plenty stylized.

- Platinum Games is alive !! And in partnership with Nintendo, unveils the sequel to Astral Chain. Game obviously looks like a banger day one and in 60FPS too this time. They will also announce a Switch 2 remaster of the first game to coincide with the announcement. Remaster is coming in August of the first year while the sequel will be slated for early 2026.
They might also do the same with Bayonetta 3, or even better a Trilogy collection with updates for the new console.

- New surprise IP from one of their new internal teams. It's not a fighting game this time like Arms, but a 3D platformer/puzzler. Slated for June/July

- Monolith Soft finally reveals its new project which was in work since 2020's. It won't be on the same scale as a Xenoblade game to justify the shorter years of active production. It'll be an RPG either set hard sci-fi or fantasy in a smaller but packed world to explore than the usual. Story might be lighter in counter part though. (Think of Soma Bringer for some)
Game is the biggest showcase of the new hardware prowess in graphics rendering. It releases in November/1st week December.

- Also, Nintendo gets to announce enhanced ports of BOTW and TOTK for the sucessor and release them at some point during the launch window.
If you already own the game previously, they'll ask for 5-10 bucks for the updated versions, otherwise you buy them both at their current regular pricing.

Also an obvious change in their pricing methods, their biggest games will now be priced at 70$(3D Zelda, 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Monolith Soft games, etc ...) while their AA efforts will likely remain at 60$(Kirby ?, 2D Donkey Kong, Yoshi, Super Mario Party, WarioWare, etc ...)

I completely understand and appreciate your perspective, but to me the newness of an IP is overrated. I'd much rather have new experiences and mechanics than new characters and stories. And in my opinion, Nintendo is great at reinventing its franchises even as it reuses the same plotlines, heroes, and villains.

Anyway, @OP: I think Switch 2 has to hit store shelves with either the next 3D Super Mario (hopefully some continuation of the gameplay in Bowser's Fury) or Mario Kart 10. Apart from that I expect Metroid Prime 4 and Pokemon Legends Z-A to be there at cross-gen launch titles. Since I believe Switch 2 will be backward compatible, I don't foresee any ports of popular Switch games. Maybe a Switch Sports sequel to hammer home the usefulness of the new Joy-Cons and help drive NSO subscriptions?

Yeah, but something different I mean. Like an open world that delivers somethign new. Maybe try a soulsborne approach to a game. Maybe try a sim racer. Maybe try a story telling adventure game in the vein of The Last of Us. Maybe a survival horror game like RE. Stuff like that, really shake up the IP like and create new stuff like Sony did in the ps3 early ps4 era. 

So, a lot to talk about here. Let me start by adressing your points/predictions:

I agree on your points about 3D Mario, 2D Mario, 3D Zelda, Paper Mario and Mario Party (after now releasing Jamboree for the Switch I doubt another one will be in the launch year of Switch 2).

How you discount Echoes of Wisdom for 2D Zelda is beyond me. You say with Link as protagonist, but making Zelda the main protagonist doesn't make Echoes of Wisdom less of a game (I am very excited) and more importantly: didn't mean less work for the team. The teams for both 3D Zelda and 2D Zelda are tapped out for the moment. A Zelda remake... well let's look at it in my later points.

I don't feel like Nintendo is caring for Kid Icarus. Uprising happened because of Masahiro Sakurai. Kid Icarus was then features in Smash, again by Sakurai. So no, I don't think we will see Kid Icarus.

I think yes, Monolith could be ready for another game. I am unsure though if they continue on with Xenoblade Chronicles. Yes it is their biggest success, but after four titles (including X) I feel like they might take a breather with something else entirely. Maybe (*maybe*) we will see a remake of XBC:X, but that does not need to involve Monolith much and I am not sure Nintendo wants that.

Mario Kart 9 - yes, you can bet it will be in the launch year of Switch 2. Either the direct launch title or the big holiday title. Not only is it very, very long since MK8, more importantly I think the DLC shows clearly they are working on a new title. Think about it: if you spin up production for a big title you need to bring on more people. But they will not be acclimated right away to this thing, so you have to train them. On what? Why not porting old courses or Mario Kart Tour courses to the current code base? This looks like the perfect training exercise. People noticed that the first waves started out a bit lackluster, but got increasingly better. Just like if the makers learned along the way. And this is the perfect ground to test out things and get some feedback from the community about what makes them excited and what not. So yeah, I think they already are producing MK9 for a while and it will be ready for Switch 2.

So let's build my own prediction. First take a look on Switch 2017. Nintendo didn't fart around, they were covering all their bases. Don't believe me? Look at their 2017 games (including 3rd partys with Nintendo  IP):

• new entries in big IPs (Odyssey and BOTW - 3D Mario + 3D Zelda)
• new entries in smaller IPs (Splatoon 2, Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Fire Emblem Warriors)
• ports of successful and niche titles (Mario Kart 8, Pokken Tournament)
• new IPs (1-2-Switch, Arms, Snipperclips, Mario+Rabbids Kingdom Battle)

Making this list I realized there are less ports than I expected, as the Switch has pretty much the whole WiiU catalogue ported and a lot of 3DS and even some DS and Wii games, it feels like they started out strong with porting, but seeing it now there were only two ports, but with Mario Kart also a really massive one. In 2018 they ported more titles.

But you see, they were not relying on one big title, but spread a lot. So let's see if we get a similar 1st year lineup for Switch NX. I don't know if Super Switch will be backwards compatible. If it is, this clearly involves the port question. If it is 

New entries in big IPs: As we already mentioned, I expect a new 3D Mario and Mario Kart 9. These are massive IPs, so this already matches what the Switch had in it's first year. But I would follow up, that arguably by now Splatoon is also a big IP. This wasn't clear with Splatoon 2, it could've been a one hit wonder. But Splatoon 2 and 3 both are clearly in the 10M+ area, so I would call it now also a big IP. And I think Nintendo knwos it and wants to utilize this. So yes, I expect Splatoon 4 in the launch year.

New entries in smaller IPs: This area is a lot murkier and harder to guess. I think that again Nintendo don't want to put all on their big hitters, even though I think they have three for the launch year this time.

• As I wrote I don't expect Mario Party, Paper Mario or Xenoblade in the first year. I also don't think Mario+Luigi, as they just announced that for Switch.
• If Switch Deluxe is not backwards compatible, I think Metroid Prime 4 will be a cross-gen release (like BOTW). If it is, I expect a patch to make it look better on Switch 360.
• Arms 2 is a big maybe. I think it is successful enough to justify a new entry, but maybe Nintendo wants to go in a different direction.
• That recent Basketball Update on Switch Sports out of the blue makes me think Nintendo is working on a Wii/Switch Sports title again. I hope they bring back Wuhu Island like in Wii Sports Resort. Anyways, I would guess this would make a good first year title to catch the more casual/motion gaming audience. As 1-2-Switch didn't do as well as Switch Sports, I think Switch Sports will get the priority here. 1-2-Switch like minigames are probably cropping up in Mario Party and Wario games instead (well, they already do on current Switch).
• If there is no new motion sports title, they might instead do a Ring Fit Adventure 2. Again, it will be not in the same year as Switch Sports, but I think one of the two has a good probability.
• I doubt Nintendo will do F-Zero (port or new entry) in the same year as Mario Kart, so that is no.
• There might be an outside chance for Luigi's Mansion 4. Luigi's Mansion 3 broke the 10M mark and it is five years old now. Also the remake of 2 shows they ongoing interest in the IP. So yeah, maybe they have a new one ready.
• Some dark horses/personal wishes. It is a long time since the last Rhythm Heaven/Rhythm Fever game. The last one was a compilation on 3DS. Making a new compilation for Switch 2 might good to utilize motion features with something else than Sports and as I said I doubt another 1-2-Switch. Also I think a new Tomodachi/Miitopia like title can be useful. It probably has low cost but if it works can bring in a lot of people, which Tomodachi did. And I also think it is time for a new Pullblox/Pushmo. Intelligent Systems probably isn't working on another Paper Mario, and they will working on a new Fire Emblem but after Engage last year I think it is too early. So Pullblox might be a good filler title for them to release early for Super Switch. It could be also a compilation, maybe with some collaborative features like Pullblox World.

Ports/Remakes: So, this depends a lot on if the Switch Ultra has backwards compatibility. If it has I expect a lot of recent Switch titles get a patch for better visuals. If not, then there are some titles that could be ported from the Switch catalogue. As I said I expect Metroid Prime 4 to be cross-gen, but as it releases about the same time as Switch Next I don't think of it as port per se, but more as multiplatform/cross-gen release, as they probably already building it with the new system in mind. But some candidates for direct Switch porting are: Pikmin 4 (the game took so long, they might let it get another chance to sell), Mario Wonder and Echoes of Wisdom (to cover they 2D bases) and Smash Ultimate (as I expect a new Smash to take time and this one feels very complete). Maybe Smash doesn't even get a new release on the next system but instead they prolong the life of Ultimate similar to what they did with Mario Kart. I also feel every game that has to follow Ultimate may feel lacking as Ultimate feels so complete. That probably was what held them back on Mario Kart 8, because that already left no room for improvement in the medium term. Smash Ultimate feels like impossible to make a sequel of.

• But let's not keep us restricted to the Switch catalogue. Switch has ports of nearly all WiiU games. But there are some very obvious omissions. Xenoblade Chronicles X, Windwaker HD and Twilight Princess HD. At this point I see them get ports/remakes on the next system at some point. Maybe one of them in the first year.
• I don't hear much about sales of Another Code Recollection, which sadly likely means it didn't sell too well. I just hope that Nintendo still also brings back the other Cing-IP they acquired with Another Code: Hotel Dusk and Last Window. It doesn't have to be a super elaborate and expensive remake, just bringing back these games which are by now very hard to get would be valuable.
• We got a remake of Metroid Prime 1 for Switch, but the other games of the trilogy are suspicously missing. So I expect Metroid Prime 2 Remake some time soon and 3 later on in the systems life.

New IPs: Well, obviously it would be hard to guess what new IPs they cook up, as they are new. But I am certain that similar to the Switch launch they also want to have something new ready. 1-2-Switch, Arms, Snipperclips and Mario+Rabbids all felt left field, so I don't feel like giving a general prediction here. Two things though. I think Monolith wants to do something else after so much Xenoblade, I expect something new from them, they had time to cook something up. I also think there might be another coop with Platinum games, but not Bayonetta or Astral Chain, something new entirely. Also I some ridiculous wishes, which probably don't come true: a Hyrule kingdom rebuilding strategy game would be really nice. A Monster Hunter like hunting game with an open world which is filled with strange Xeno game like monsters would also pretty neat.

To conclude: I am kinda certain of the three titles named under big IPs. In the other categories I don't expect all to happen what I list, but maybe some of it. And it is just all my conjecture, I am sure Nintendo will surprise me.

I feel like 3D Mario & Mario Kart will be the big ones in 2025. I can see Animal Crossing, Smash and Pokemon Gen 10 in 2026, Mario Party in 2027 (they've pretty consistently been 3 years apart), 2D Mario in either 2027 or 2028, Zelda in 2029 and Splatoon in 2028 or 2029. Obviously there'd be other things sprinkled in too, like Kirby, Fire Emblem, Mario Sports, etc.

I realize as I reread this post that my lineup is far too stacked. There’s really no reason to cram the launch with so many big names. A slow drip of titles throughout 2025 makes more sense.

Perhaps Z-A is the true swan for Switch, and only Metroid Prime 4 is a cross-gen launch title. That, paired with Mario Kart 10 and some AA “filler” title would be more than enough — assuming a fair number of third-party releases.