Which of these games are the most likely to launch with the Switch 2?

[SuperJortendo]

With the Switch 2 (probably) releasing next year, I thought it could be fun to bet on the games you think are likely to be launch titles and to give my own thoughts on the matter. I know this is a bit early and there's not much to go on, but in a few years there could be some hot takes on this thread that seemed impossible and ended up coming true, which is always fun to see.

I have no idea how to set up the betting feature on here so the bets are just for fun. That said I'll put $100 vgc bucks on each prediction if I ever take the time to figure out how to do so. 

3D Mario - At this point I think a new 3D Mario is as close to a given as we can get. The last fully  new 3D Mario game was Mario Odyssey (I don't count Bowser's Fury) which released on 2017. It would grab headlines, be a graphical showcase,  and bring an instant "must have" game to the new system. The only reason I could see this not launching with the Switch 2 is if they wanted to hold off the release to coincide with the release new Mario movie in 2026, but I'm betting that won't be a factor. This will be a launch day title. 

2D Mario - no chance. Mario Wonder just released at the end of 2023. 4th Holiday season is when this will launch. 

Mario Maker 3 - I think this has a decent chance to come out in the first year of the Switch 2, but I think it's less likely to be a launch game because they'll already have their 3D Mario in that spot. *Bonus bet* I think they'll introduce 3D Mario Maker with this iteration but it will be limited to Mario 64 graphics. 

3D Zelda - again, no chance. ToTK came out in 2023 and took over 6 years to release after BoTW. Maybe a remake/remaster of one of them will release but no full-fledged new game. 3rd holiday season is when this will launch. 

2D Zelda - The last non-remake 2D Zelda game (starring Link) was released on the 3DS over a decade ago. I think it is time for a new one, and I think it will launch within the launch window of the system. *Bonus bet* It won't be a remake of Zelda 2, but will be similar in gameplay. Meaning that you can level up your stats, learn new moves, and it will have side-scrolling segments where the battles take place. 

3D DK - I think the 3D Donk is dead.

2D DK - If a 2D Zelda doesn't happen then I think this will take its place in the launch window. Obviously retro studios is busy with Metroid Prime 4, so it will be a different team making this, but it has to be in development, right?

Arms 2 - this is a weird one. I think the first game had people excited pre-launch, but it kinda flamed out and had a mixed reception. I don't expect a sequel, but I expect some other motion-heavy or gimmicky game to take its place in the launch window line up. 

Kid Icarus - I think this will be a surprise announcement. A brand new fully 3D Kid Icarus game will launch with the system. *Super Ultra bonus bet* This will show off the currently unannounced VR possibilities of the system. No cardboard required, but it will be require an accessory to fully utilize.

Mario Kart 9 - This will launch during the first holiday season of the Switch 2, so depending on when the system launches it will be in the launch window. It will also be playable in VR. *Bonus bet* Online team mode will be in this game. Microphone will be built into VR accessory. Easy voice chat with friends like it's 2005!

Xeno game - I think Monolith Soft has shown they produce games quickly, but I think it's too soon after XBC3 and Future Redeemed to expect a game in the launch window. Second or third year is when this will launch. 

F-Zero - A remake of F-Zero GX in the launch window with a new F-Zero coming a couple years later. 

Paper Mario - Won't be in the launch window. I expect a new iteration of the series to launch in the second year of the system. 

Mario Party - second year of the system is when this will launch. 

*Extreme Bonus Bet*

Wario Farty - New game that is part Wario Ware and part Mario Party will be in the launch window. This game will feature fully voice acted cut scenes with real fart sounds from the cast from super Mario Brothers 2 movie.