So, a lot to talk about here. Let me start by adressing your points/predictions:
I agree on your points about 3D Mario, 2D Mario, 3D Zelda, Paper Mario and Mario Party (after now releasing Jamboree for the Switch I doubt another one will be in the launch year of Switch 2).
How you discount Echoes of Wisdom for 2D Zelda is beyond me. You say with Link as protagonist, but making Zelda the main protagonist doesn't make Echoes of Wisdom less of a game (I am very excited) and more importantly: didn't mean less work for the team. The teams for both 3D Zelda and 2D Zelda are tapped out for the moment. A Zelda remake... well let's look at it in my later points.
I don't feel like Nintendo is caring for Kid Icarus. Uprising happened because of Masahiro Sakurai. Kid Icarus was then features in Smash, again by Sakurai. So no, I don't think we will see Kid Icarus.
I think yes, Monolith could be ready for another game. I am unsure though if they continue on with Xenoblade Chronicles. Yes it is their biggest success, but after four titles (including X) I feel like they might take a breather with something else entirely. Maybe (*maybe*) we will see a remake of XBC:X, but that does not need to involve Monolith much and I am not sure Nintendo wants that.
Mario Kart 9 - yes, you can bet it will be in the launch year of Switch 2. Either the direct launch title or the big holiday title. Not only is it very, very long since MK8, more importantly I think the DLC shows clearly they are working on a new title. Think about it: if you spin up production for a big title you need to bring on more people. But they will not be acclimated right away to this thing, so you have to train them. On what? Why not porting old courses or Mario Kart Tour courses to the current code base? This looks like the perfect training exercise. People noticed that the first waves started out a bit lackluster, but got increasingly better. Just like if the makers learned along the way. And this is the perfect ground to test out things and get some feedback from the community about what makes them excited and what not. So yeah, I think they already are producing MK9 for a while and it will be ready for Switch 2.
So let's build my own prediction. First take a look on Switch 2017. Nintendo didn't fart around, they were covering all their bases. Don't believe me? Look at their 2017 games (including 3rd partys with Nintendo IP):
- new entries in big IPs (Odyssey and BOTW - 3D Mario + 3D Zelda)
- new entries in smaller IPs (Splatoon 2, Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Fire Emblem Warriors)
- ports of successful and niche titles (Mario Kart 8, Pokken Tournament)
- new IPs (1-2-Switch, Arms, Snipperclips, Mario+Rabbids Kingdom Battle)
Making this list I realized there are less ports than I expected, as the Switch has pretty much the whole WiiU catalogue ported and a lot of 3DS and even some DS and Wii games, it feels like they started out strong with porting, but seeing it now there were only two ports, but with Mario Kart also a really massive one. In 2018 they ported more titles.
But you see, they were not relying on one big title, but spread a lot. So let's see if we get a similar 1st year lineup for Switch NX. I don't know if Super Switch will be backwards compatible. If it is, this clearly involves the port question. If it is
New entries in big IPs: As we already mentioned, I expect a new 3D Mario and Mario Kart 9. These are massive IPs, so this already matches what the Switch had in it's first year. But I would follow up, that arguably by now Splatoon is also a big IP. This wasn't clear with Splatoon 2, it could've been a one hit wonder. But Splatoon 2 and 3 both are clearly in the 10M+ area, so I would call it now also a big IP. And I think Nintendo knwos it and wants to utilize this. So yes, I expect Splatoon 4 in the launch year.
New entries in smaller IPs: This area is a lot murkier and harder to guess. I think that again Nintendo don't want to put all on their big hitters, even though I think they have three for the launch year this time.
- As I wrote I don't expect Mario Party, Paper Mario or Xenoblade in the first year. I also don't think Mario+Luigi, as they just announced that for Switch.
- If Switch Deluxe is not backwards compatible, I think Metroid Prime 4 will be a cross-gen release (like BOTW). If it is, I expect a patch to make it look better on Switch 360.
- Arms 2 is a big maybe. I think it is successful enough to justify a new entry, but maybe Nintendo wants to go in a different direction.
- That recent Basketball Update on Switch Sports out of the blue makes me think Nintendo is working on a Wii/Switch Sports title again. I hope they bring back Wuhu Island like in Wii Sports Resort. Anyways, I would guess this would make a good first year title to catch the more casual/motion gaming audience. As 1-2-Switch didn't do as well as Switch Sports, I think Switch Sports will get the priority here. 1-2-Switch like minigames are probably cropping up in Mario Party and Wario games instead (well, they already do on current Switch).
- If there is no new motion sports title, they might instead do a Ring Fit Adventure 2. Again, it will be not in the same year as Switch Sports, but I think one of the two has a good probability.
- I doubt Nintendo will do F-Zero (port or new entry) in the same year as Mario Kart, so that is no.
- There might be an outside chance for Luigi's Mansion 4. Luigi's Mansion 3 broke the 10M mark and it is five years old now. Also the remake of 2 shows they ongoing interest in the IP. So yeah, maybe they have a new one ready.
- Some dark horses/personal wishes. It is a long time since the last Rhythm Heaven/Rhythm Fever game. The last one was a compilation on 3DS. Making a new compilation for Switch 2 might good to utilize motion features with something else than Sports and as I said I doubt another 1-2-Switch. Also I think a new Tomodachi/Miitopia like title can be useful. It probably has low cost but if it works can bring in a lot of people, which Tomodachi did. And I also think it is time for a new Pullblox/Pushmo. Intelligent Systems probably isn't working on another Paper Mario, and they will working on a new Fire Emblem but after Engage last year I think it is too early. So Pullblox might be a good filler title for them to release early for Super Switch. It could be also a compilation, maybe with some collaborative features like Pullblox World.
Ports/Remakes: So, this depends a lot on if the Switch Ultra has backwards compatibility. If it has I expect a lot of recent Switch titles get a patch for better visuals. If not, then there are some titles that could be ported from the Switch catalogue. As I said I expect Metroid Prime 4 to be cross-gen, but as it releases about the same time as Switch Next I don't think of it as port per se, but more as multiplatform/cross-gen release, as they probably already building it with the new system in mind. But some candidates for direct Switch porting are: Pikmin 4 (the game took so long, they might let it get another chance to sell), Mario Wonder and Echoes of Wisdom (to cover they 2D bases) and Smash Ultimate (as I expect a new Smash to take time and this one feels very complete). Maybe Smash doesn't even get a new release on the next system but instead they prolong the life of Ultimate similar to what they did with Mario Kart. I also feel every game that has to follow Ultimate may feel lacking as Ultimate feels so complete. That probably was what held them back on Mario Kart 8, because that already left no room for improvement in the medium term. Smash Ultimate feels like impossible to make a sequel of.
- But let's not keep us restricted to the Switch catalogue. Switch has ports of nearly all WiiU games. But there are some very obvious omissions. Xenoblade Chronicles X, Windwaker HD and Twilight Princess HD. At this point I see them get ports/remakes on the next system at some point. Maybe one of them in the first year.
- I don't hear much about sales of Another Code Recollection, which sadly likely means it didn't sell too well. I just hope that Nintendo still also brings back the other Cing-IP they acquired with Another Code: Hotel Dusk and Last Window. It doesn't have to be a super elaborate and expensive remake, just bringing back these games which are by now very hard to get would be valuable.
- We got a remake of Metroid Prime 1 for Switch, but the other games of the trilogy are suspicously missing. So I expect Metroid Prime 2 Remake some time soon and 3 later on in the systems life.
New IPs: Well, obviously it would be hard to guess what new IPs they cook up, as they are new. But I am certain that similar to the Switch launch they also want to have something new ready. 1-2-Switch, Arms, Snipperclips and Mario+Rabbids all felt left field, so I don't feel like giving a general prediction here. Two things though. I think Monolith wants to do something else after so much Xenoblade, I expect something new from them, they had time to cook something up. I also think there might be another coop with Platinum games, but not Bayonetta or Astral Chain, something new entirely. Also I some ridiculous wishes, which probably don't come true: a Hyrule kingdom rebuilding strategy game would be really nice. A Monster Hunter like hunting game with an open world which is filled with strange Xeno game like monsters would also pretty neat.
To conclude: I am kinda certain of the three titles named under big IPs. In the other categories I don't expect all to happen what I list, but maybe some of it. And it is just all my conjecture, I am sure Nintendo will surprise me.
