Stellar Blade seems to be doing better than I thought.

I didn't make any for the last fiscal year but for calendar year 2023 it was about 14m so I was off but not by a big degree. Keep in mind that back in 2021 I said that in the worst case scenario the Switch will still reach 140m when some people were still saying its best case scenario would be lower than that so I've not been historically pessimistic for the Switch or anything like that. When you break it down my main point is that it would be very unusual for the Switch to not significantly decline in its final year before its successor comes out especially since it should release the first half of next year.

I absolutely agree with you. The more notable drops of the Switch started after the summer last year, and are still here. Yes there were some months as december or january that were a little bit outliers with more steady drops, but outside of those generally Switch was between 20 and 40% drops, with peaking this month by a whopping 50% drop worlwide YOY. Yes you heard right. Also weekly numbers dropped in the last quarter of the last year to range between 180 and 200k just before the holiday boost (from 200 to 250k in the first 8/9 months of the year) to 150 - 180k weekly range in the weeks till April, and dropped once again to a range of 130k to 160K for the month of April. You heard right! The very last week of April Switch made only 130k for the week. This is very big drop. Even I with not so optimistic projections as some people here, expected the drop to 130k at least in the second half of this year. This is big. Switch hadn't had so weak week since 2017, and even then there were only a few weeks around that number. Maybe the drop in number in the range 100 - 130k will come sooner than I expected. And yes, as @Phenomajp13 said, this is only 1 month, however I just wrote, the drops continue to be here, and in the past 9 months they have become bigger and bigger (if we exclude the holidays of course, well there were decent drops there as well for a holidays, but we are talking standart non holidays weeks here) and I honestly don't think the sales will go back to let's say 200k weekly unless Nintendo really steps up massively, and put some new big software titles (yes, titles, at least a few not only 1) and of course pricecut, as you @Norion said, 100$. At this point even delaying the Switch 2 won't save the sales so much. And this is not even a quarter I am explaining here, it's a period of 9 months, or 7 if you will without the holidays (although the drops for the holidays were there too, let's not forget November). I am only not sure about if the drops will continue, or Switch can hold on let's say till the end of the year, with weekly number in the 130-160k range, cuz if it can, that it is still good. This is still decent numbers for so old console, and the chances of 155-160M are maybe still there. But I really doubt that with showing week of 130K in as early as April, and weeks of 150-160K before that, that Switch can hold on to those level of sales for the rest of the year, as I said, unless they do at least 100$ price cut which will help definitely. With that pricecut I can see Switch even going back to the 180-200k sales range for some time. I still expect around 10M for the year though. But if the next 2-3 month show range of 100-130K I am not sure if it can reach that number.

It certainly would be unusual, I was personally thinking 10 million this fiscal year but I think Nintendo certainly better analyst and a better idea on what's to come. Really nothing wrong with your post besides the consistent idea that you know what's to come (should release in the first half of next year is another assumption). I don't think you are pessimistic at all unlike another poster here that was the real reason for my initial post lol. 

I mean Sony missed their last PS5 forecast by quite a bit so the analysts at these companies are not infallible. I don't fully know what's to come of course but when looking at the trends you get a good idea of what's gonna happen. It's clear there's gonna be no games on the level of TOTK this year for example since all the huge stuff will be developed for the Switch 2 at this point and it's a fair assumption since the highly reported on rumour was it originally being intended for late this year and a delay that big would be surprising.

There is definitely a good chance they will miss their target but I would say let’s wait until next month’s Direct because they wouldn’t make that forecast if they didn’t have a reason to think it was possible.

They had to know April/May would be down by a lot considering Mario Movie+TotK released last year and this year has Endless Ocean+Paper Mario. They have to have something significant coming or else the forecast makes no sense.

The Successor will be announced throughout this FY, through tweets, quick Nintendo mini directs (like how they showcased the Mario Movie) and more. So yes we will have a solid understanding of the Successor.

There is nothing that hints at Legends Z-A being a cross-gen (as in launch cross-gen). It will still be playable on the Successor given the rumored backwards compatibility. But all signs point to a 3D Mario launch. Hence no need for launch cross-gens, like what most people say on here for Metroid Prime 4, or Legends Z-A. Those two maybe be playable immediately on the Successor but it'll be through the Switch cartridge/software because they'll be released earlier than the Successor. 

Personally, I would love to see the Successor launch in the Spring, but considering that the FY only had Switch I can only assume the Successor must launch after March 31, 2025. And the latest being the 3rd week of November 2025. Earlier is better considering it could be difficult to find, and it help bring positive advertising through word of mouth to many for the holiday season.

Giving what you said some thought, and I agree maybe they won't do a full $100 price cut immediately, but I can see them announcing a Summer Sale $50 off all Switch units (NS: $249, NSL: $149, NSOLED: $299) and release a Summer bundle of 2-3 games for same price as the console used to be (NS: $299, NSL: $199, NSOLED: $349). Then continue to announce the Summer Sale but rebrand it as the Fall and Holiday Sale, each with 2-3 different bundles. Then after Dec 31, 2024 they announce another $50 off. Leading to the $100 off price cut, and multiple bundles. 

Either way there will for sure be a price cut once the Successor comes out, that way the Switch won't be "competing" at its price level.

I talk about the price cuts because it doesn't make much sense on why their revenue goal is so low. Which is why price cut, and bundles make sense.

According to Sony ps5 Is the most profitable generation for Playstation history doesn't make sense but someone needs to make a thread cause all I been hearing is how they closing companies and not doing well.

It is true that PS5 makes a bigger currency amount in profit, but operating margins are under pressure. This is caused by that they make a lot more revenue thanks to the physical -> Digital. This strong revenue growth does not seem to translate in equal ways to profit growth.

Also just like with Nintendo the USD/EUR -> Yen conversion rates are doing them favors the past couple of years. Arguably with PS more, because a larger portion of their business is outside Japan.

Nintendo is always revising their HW forecasts, so no reason to latch on to their 2024 prediction as market gospel or an indicative of their future strategy.