April Circana (NPD) 2024 Thread + Predictions

[Norion]

Phenomajp13 said:

Norion said:

I didn't make any for the last fiscal year but for calendar year 2023 it was about 14m so I was off but not by a big degree. Keep in mind that back in 2021 I said that in the worst case scenario the Switch will still reach 140m when some people were still saying its best case scenario would be lower than that so I've not been historically pessimistic for the Switch or anything like that. When you break it down my main point is that it would be very unusual for the Switch to not significantly decline in its final year before its successor comes out especially since it should release the first half of next year.

It certainly would be unusual, I was personally thinking 10 million this fiscal year but I think Nintendo certainly better analyst and a better idea on what's to come. Really nothing wrong with your post besides the consistent idea that you know what's to come (should release in the first half of next year is another assumption). I don't think you are pessimistic at all unlike another poster here that was the real reason for my initial post lol. 

I mean Sony missed their last PS5 forecast by quite a bit so the analysts at these companies are not infallible. I don't fully know what's to come of course but when looking at the trends you get a good idea of what's gonna happen. It's clear there's gonna be no games on the level of TOTK this year for example since all the huge stuff will be developed for the Switch 2 at this point and it's a fair assumption since the highly reported on rumour was it originally being intended for late this year and a delay that big would be surprising.