April Circana (NPD) 2024 Thread + Predictions

[zorg1000]

Norion said:

Phenomajp13 said:

It certainly would be unusual, I was personally thinking 10 million this fiscal year but I think Nintendo certainly better analyst and a better idea on what's to come. Really nothing wrong with your post besides the consistent idea that you know what's to come (should release in the first half of next year is another assumption). I don't think you are pessimistic at all unlike another poster here that was the real reason for my initial post lol. 

I mean Sony missed their last PS5 forecast by quite a bit so the analysts at these companies are not infallible. I don't fully know what's to come of course but when looking at the trends you get a good idea of what's gonna happen. It's clear there's gonna be no games on the level of TOTK this year for example since all the huge stuff will be developed for the Switch 2 at this point and it's a fair assumption since the highly reported on rumour was it originally being intended for late this year and a delay that big would be surprising.

There is definitely a good chance they will miss their target but I would say let’s wait until next month’s Direct because they wouldn’t make that forecast if they didn’t have a reason to think it was possible.

They had to know April/May would be down by a lot considering Mario Movie+TotK released last year and this year has Endless Ocean+Paper Mario. They have to have something significant coming or else the forecast makes no sense.