Fair enough for the first part and if Nintendo believes that then they're in for a reality check since everything is pointing towards Q2 and Q3 being down as well. The Switch was down compared to last January-March so it's completely expected for it to also be down for the 2nd half of this year when it's gonna be down for the entire first half. For Q4 the Switch 2 will be announced by then and should have a release date with its launch games having been shown off which points to Q4 being down too. Another model would help but would only do much this late in its life since it wouldn't be one like a Switch Pro and in terms of software it's clear that this year won't compare to last year having both TOTK and Mario Wonder. The Switch 2 is coming out next year and was rumoured to be originally intended for late this year so it's not jumping the gun when they've clearly mostly moved on from the Switch with how many remasters and remakes it's getting this year as a way to fill time while the huge stuff is being saved for the successor. I had the audacity to say that cause that is how insanely ambitious the goal of only being down 14% this fiscal year is. I've pointed out various reasons why that is an unreasonable target and saying we don't know the full details of July-March isn't a good counterargument since it's not difficult to notice trends like the ones I've mentioned. That would be a good lineup but considering that Pokemon Legends Z-A is probably gonna be a cross-gen game that one won't help out the Switch much and by November the Switch 2 will either be announced or close enough to launching that information about it will be spreading far and depressing hardware sales since many people would prefer waiting a bit longer. This point is particularly noteworthy since the majority of Switch sales are the OLED model and it's clear a lot of those are being sold to existing owners based on the slowing growth of the annual userbase and people are gonna be way less likely to spend a few hundred on an upgrade when they can just wait a bit and get a way bigger upgrade.
The issue is that it would be very strange for them to suddenly do a huge price cut like that when they've gone 7 years without doing any and even released a more expensive model that has the same level of power. With the Switch on its way out a few million extra sales for it but a big reduction in revenue doesn't seem like a good trade. I can see them cutting the price after the successor comes out though so they have a low cost option for a while. |
The Successor will be announced throughout this FY, through tweets, quick Nintendo mini directs (like how they showcased the Mario Movie) and more. So yes we will have a solid understanding of the Successor.
There is nothing that hints at Legends Z-A being a cross-gen (as in launch cross-gen). It will still be playable on the Successor given the rumored backwards compatibility. But all signs point to a 3D Mario launch. Hence no need for launch cross-gens, like what most people say on here for Metroid Prime 4, or Legends Z-A. Those two maybe be playable immediately on the Successor but it'll be through the Switch cartridge/software because they'll be released earlier than the Successor.
Personally, I would love to see the Successor launch in the Spring, but considering that the FY only had Switch I can only assume the Successor must launch after March 31, 2025. And the latest being the 3rd week of November 2025. Earlier is better considering it could be difficult to find, and it help bring positive advertising through word of mouth to many for the holiday season.
Giving what you said some thought, and I agree maybe they won't do a full $100 price cut immediately, but I can see them announcing a Summer Sale $50 off all Switch units (NS: $249, NSL: $149, NSOLED: $299) and release a Summer bundle of 2-3 games for same price as the console used to be (NS: $299, NSL: $199, NSOLED: $349). Then continue to announce the Summer Sale but rebrand it as the Fall and Holiday Sale, each with 2-3 different bundles. Then after Dec 31, 2024 they announce another $50 off. Leading to the $100 off price cut, and multiple bundles.
Either way there will for sure be a price cut once the Successor comes out, that way the Switch won't be "competing" at its price level.
I talk about the price cuts because it doesn't make much sense on why their revenue goal is so low. Which is why price cut, and bundles make sense.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)
PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)
Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)
"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.
