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Forums - Sales - Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

 

Will Switch outsell DS and/or PS2? or neither?

Switch will outsell both the DS & PS2 95 65.52%
 
Switch will outsell the DS, but not PS2 26 17.93%
 
Switch won't outsell DS or PS2 24 16.55%
 
Total:145

The only major drop during the holiday this year was the US in December thanks to a lack of deals. Japan sales were up during this holiday quarter, Europe sales were also basically flat (-15% for the year despite being down significantly more during the non-holiday months), and even the US was flat or up during November due to Black Friday promotions. Even accounting for holiday overshipping last year (Nintendo should have shipped about 6.3m instead of 6.9m), this holiday's strong holds means that Switch shipments should come over 5.5m minimum unless Nintendo undershipped, probably close to 6m. Ultimately what matters is that the Switch did hit 12m sold this year which puts it on pace to meet its sales target for the fiscal year.

Last edited by CheddarPlease - on 24 January 2025

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CheddarPlease said:

The only major drop during the holiday this year was the US in December thanks to a lack of deals. Japan sales were up during this holiday quarter, Europe sales were also basically flat (-15% for the year despite being down significantly more during the non-holiday months), and even the US was flat or up during November due to Black Friday promotions. Even accounting for holiday overshipping last year (Nintendo should have shipped about 6.3m instead of 6.9m), this holiday's strong holds means that Switch shipments should come over 5.5m minimum unless Nintendo undershipped, probably close to 6m.

So much? I guess 4,7 million. Why 5,5?



killer7 said:
CheddarPlease said:

The only major drop during the holiday this year was the US in December thanks to a lack of deals. Japan sales were up during this holiday quarter, Europe sales were also basically flat (-15% for the year despite being down significantly more during the non-holiday months), and even the US was flat or up during November due to Black Friday promotions. Even accounting for holiday overshipping last year (Nintendo should have shipped about 6.3m instead of 6.9m), this holiday's strong holds means that Switch shipments should come over 5.5m minimum unless Nintendo undershipped, probably close to 6m.

So much? I guess 4,7 million. Why 5,5?

Please re-read the post you just replied to, Switch holiday sales were flat in Japan and Europe this year, and only down significantly in December in the US. If we take the fact that shipments were 0.8m behind sales in Q1 2024 (1.9m vs 2.7m), and say that Nintendo should have shipped 6.1m during Q4 2023 instead of 6.9m, that puts the shipment total at a minimum 5.5m unless they shipped less than they sold.



CheddarPlease said:

The only major drop during the holiday this year was the US in December thanks to a lack of deals. Japan sales were up during this holiday quarter, Europe sales were also basically flat (-15% for the year despite being down significantly more during the non-holiday months), and even the US was flat or up during November due to Black Friday promotions. Even accounting for holiday overshipping last year (Nintendo should have shipped about 6.3m instead of 6.9m), this holiday's strong holds means that Switch shipments should come over 5.5m minimum unless Nintendo undershipped, probably close to 6m.

November + December:

WW: 4.4M from 5.3M (2023)

US: 1.4M from 1.87M (2023)

EU: 1.47M from 1.65M (2023)

JP: 750k from 730k (2023)

The " others " region is down as well, but it's more calculations to get the data.

So, the drop is everywhere even in the holidays, excluding Japan. It isn't as big as expected and as it was through out the year, but it's there. It's not flat, it's down. Also keep in mind that the last week that is added to all regions is actually more of a 2025 week since it cover only 30 and 31st of December. Without it Japan would probably be flat or slightly behind, and all other regions will be further behind alongside the worldwide data.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 24 January 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
CheddarPlease said:

The only major drop during the holiday this year was the US in December thanks to a lack of deals. Japan sales were up during this holiday quarter, Europe sales were also basically flat (-15% for the year despite being down significantly more during the non-holiday months), and even the US was flat or up during November due to Black Friday promotions. Even accounting for holiday overshipping last year (Nintendo should have shipped about 6.3m instead of 6.9m), this holiday's strong holds means that Switch shipments should come over 5.5m minimum unless Nintendo undershipped, probably close to 6m.

November + December:

WW: 4.4M from 5.3M (2023)

US: 1.4M from 1.85M (2023)

EU: 1.45M from 1.65M (2023)

JP: 750k from 730k (2023)

The " others " region is down as well, but it's more calculations to get the data.

So, the drop is everywhere even in the holidays, excluding Japan. It is isn't as big as expected and as it was through out the year, but it's there. It's not flat, it's down. Also keep in mind that the last week that is added to all regions is actually more of a 2025 week since it cover only 30 and 31st of December. Without it Japan will probably be flat or slightly behind, and all other regions will be further behind alongside the worldwide data.

According to your own figures JP + EUR sales are only down 7% combined, that is almost flat, US sales were also more or less flat in Oct and Nov, again, most of the deficit is coming from US December sales and "other" (which is basically a black box in terms of data), never mind the fact that Nintendo shipment totals have historically outpaced sold-through figures in the holiday quarter (6.9m shipped vs 5.3m sold through last holiday quarter)



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CheddarPlease said:

According to your own figures JP + EUR sales are only down 7% combined, that is almost flat, US sales were also more or less flat in Oct and Nov, again, most of the deficit is coming from US December sales and "other" (which is basically a black box in terms of data), never mind the fact that Nintendo shipment totals have historically outpaced sold-through figures in the holiday quarter (6.9m shipped vs 5.3m sold through last holiday quarter)

First of all it's not my own figures, it's on the site where you are on - VGChartz. And since you are here it's normal to agree with those figures, otherwise why would anyone come and look at data he don't believe ?

Second I am not saying it's down massively, I am saying it's down. it's not flat all regions like you describe it. EU is down almost 200k, that is down that is not flat. JP is almost flat, slightly above, but again without the last week since it don't have to be there, since it's mostly 2025, it would be behind there as well.

Third, about the US it was flat in November and I was talking purely about holidays here. But October was down as well - a whopping 70k, it did 135K in 2024 and 205K in 2023. I don't know why you are including October here..

About the shipments I haven't debated that. I don't know what will be the final official shipped number for the quarter, but it should be somewhat down as well. With sales almost 149M it should be something around 151M.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 24 January 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
CheddarPlease said:

According to your own figures JP + EUR sales are only down 7% combined, that is almost flat, US sales were also more or less flat in Oct and Nov, again, most of the deficit is coming from US December sales and "other" (which is basically a black box in terms of data), never mind the fact that Nintendo shipment totals have historically outpaced sold-through figures in the holiday quarter (6.9m shipped vs 5.3m sold through last holiday quarter)

First of all it's not my own figures, it's on the site where you are on - VGChartz. And since you are here it's normal to agree with those figures, otherwise why would anyone come and look at data he don't believe ?

Second I am not saying it's down massively, I am saying it's down. it's not flat all regions like you describe it. EU is down almost 200k, that is down that is not flat. JP is almost flat, slightly above, but again without the last week since it don't have to be there, since it's mostly 2025, it would be behind there as well.

Third, about the US it was flat in November and I was talking purely about holidays here. But October was down as well - a whopping 70k, it did 135K in 2024 and 205K in 2023. I don't know why you are including October here..

About the shipments I haven't debated that. I don't know what will be the final official number, but it should be somewhat down.

I never said I disagreed with it. What you were implying was that the figures indicated the sales were down more than I supposed, which the numbers don't support. I'd think 6.9m > 5.5m is already a significant decline. What I don't understand people thinking is that it's going to be significantly below even that



killer7 said:
XtremeBG said:

I think the sold number will be around 148.5M with the Europe numbers for December.

Could be possible. But shippment will be 150 million + minimum. I have a hard time believing Nintendo shipped less than 4 million in Q3.

With new Europe numbers Nintendo has shipped a minimum of 150.82M units, we don’t even have the RotW. My guess was way off. Haha

also sold on this site Sold ≠ Shipped. Sold is around 2-3M units behind Shipped because Nintendo needs to keep supply available. So you both are saying the same thing.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

CheddarPlease said:

I never said I disagreed with it. What you were implying was that the figures indicated the sales were down more than I supposed, which the numbers don't support. I'd think 6.9m > 5.5m is already a significant decline. What I don't understand people thinking is that it's going to be significantly below even that

You originally said that Europe was flat (200k difference) but Japan with only 20k difference is up. if 20k is enough to make it not flat, then 200k for sure should make it it's not flat. Europe is down, not massively but down. US is down (almost 500k) Other region is down, and JP is the outlier, which is flatish (20k isn't really a difference). Also I don't get what are those 6.9M and 5.5M are they shipped estimations ? Or holiday comparisons ? Since those are 4.4M in 2024 and 5.3M in 2023.

All in all the year for the Switch is 12M from 16.4M in 2023. It's drop by 25% but it's better than expected and very strong for 8th year.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 24 January 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

Last year, there was a feeling of disappointment due to Switch's sales being quite low in the holidays. Now, it's the opposite. People seem to be more optimistic.