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Forums - Sales - Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

 

Will Switch outsell DS and/or PS2? or neither?

Switch will outsell both the DS & PS2 95 65.52%
 
Switch will outsell the DS, but not PS2 26 17.93%
 
Switch won't outsell DS or PS2 24 16.55%
 
Total:145

@Phenomajp
Thats what i also think. And once Switch 2 is out, Switch 1 will not automatically disappear. Even the Gamecube stayed on the market more than another year and was not discontinued before february 2008. And that was a console that was close of being a flop. Now imagine the Switch! The Game Boy was ceased in 2003, the GBA even got support in 2011, and DS was on the market till 2015, the 3DS made it till 2021 DS and 3DS got first party releases 2 years into next gen, i do not see why it should be different with the Switch! No one can ignore a userbase with 150 million+ users.



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Phenomajp13 said:

@XtremeBG How much did Switch sale in Europe last December? I ask because i really dont understand how to use the tool but maybe thats because im on mobile. Switch seems to be holding on better in Eu (15% down in many Eu nations) and Japan than the US. Maybe Eu's current economic situation is the cause of this.

It's easier on PC to use the hardware by date tool. It did almost 1.1M last December in Europe. The numbers are out now and it did 900k this December. Above expectations for sure. It even beat the US numbers.

Other than that the US and EU markets were running neck in neck through out the year for the Switch in 2024. They were both at 1.7M before November. With the holidays over and the data released now it's 3.3M for Europe and 3.15M for US. Although there will be some adjustments for sure .. November already got slightly adjusted. But it should be above 3M even with that. So almost half of the sales in both US and EU were made in November and December for the Switch in 2024.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 24 January 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
Phenomajp13 said:

@XtremeBG How much did Switch sale in Europe last December? I ask because i really dont understand how to use the tool but maybe thats because im on mobile. Switch seems to be holding on better in Eu (15% down in many Eu nations) and Japan than the US. Maybe Eu's current economic situation is the cause of this.

It's easier on PC to use the hardware by date tool. It did almost 1.1M last December in Europe. The numbers are out now and it did 900k this December. Above expectations for sure. It even beat the US numbers.

Other than that the US and EU markets were running neck in neck through out the year for the Switch in 2024. They were both at 1.7M before November. With the holidays over and the data released now it's 3.3M for Europe and 3.15M for US. Although there will be some adjustments for sure .. November already got slightly adjusted. But it should be above 3M even with that. So almost half of the sales in both US and EU were made in November and December for the Switch in 2024.

Damn those are some crazy sales for europe!! That means 150 million shipped is a lock at this point!!



killer7 said:

Damn those are some crazy sales for europe!! That means 150 million shipped is a lock at this point!!

Yep. I didn't expected almost 1M for the Switch for December alone with the sales drop in sales it had weekly and monthly through out the year.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
killer7 said:

Damn those are some crazy sales for europe!! That means 150 million shipped is a lock at this point!!

Yep. I didn't expected almost 1M for the Switch for December alone with the sales drop in sales it had weekly and monthly through out the year.

It was a bit surprising for me as well. I expected 500k- 750k. 



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The total sales for the year are down 12M from 16.4M in 2023.

  • US sales dropped from 4.9M to 3.15M
  • EU sales dropped from 4.4M to 3.3M
  • JP sales dropped from 4M to 3.1M
  • Rest of the world dropped from 3.2M to 2.3M

The drops for US and EU are there, it just didn't drop as much in the holidays, but mostly through out the non holiday months.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 24 January 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

Yeah EU is definitely holding on better than US but it's likely due to the economic situation in EU. The US is tapped out at this price, which explains why November was an outlier thanks to the Black Friday deals. Nintendo has fully locked down Japan to explain why Switch is holding on so well there. A reasonable error of margin allows Switch's sellthrough/sold to consumers figures to be as high as 149 million or more which makes 151-152 million shipment/sold possible.

Edit: @XtremeBG Those drops during the year are because of Zelda and Mario movie. Which means those drops aren't natural and unreasonable to determine what the drops will look like this year. 2025 even has the biggest software mover (Pokemon ZA) between the two years (2024 vs 2025).

Last edited by Phenomajp13 - on 24 January 2025

Phenomajp13 said:

Yeah EU is definitely holding on better than US but it's likely due to the economic situation in EU. The US is tapped out at this price, which explains why November was an outlier thanks to the Black Friday deals. Nintendo has fully locked down Japan to explain why Switch is holding on so well there. A reasonable error of margin allows Switch's sellthrough/sold to consumers figures to be as high as 149 million or more which makes 151-152 million shipment/sold possible.

Edit: @XtremeBG Those drops during the year are because of Zelda and Mario movie. Which means those drops aren't natural and unreasonable to determine what the drops will look like this year. 2025 even has the biggest software mover (Pokemon ZA) between the two years (2024 vs 2025).

Are we sure those numbers are correct? I mean we all know the Switch is a sucess but 900k+ only in europe in december ALONE?! 151 Million, hmm maybe, 152 million seems a bit high to me, but after this december i wouldn't be shocked if it actually happened. Anyway, 150 million by the end of 2024 is a dead lock now and the DS should fall sometime in summer! What comes after that depends on Switch software in 2025/26, when the sucessor comes and what price it is.



killer7 said:
Phenomajp13 said:

Yeah EU is definitely holding on better than US but it's likely due to the economic situation in EU. The US is tapped out at this price, which explains why November was an outlier thanks to the Black Friday deals. Nintendo has fully locked down Japan to explain why Switch is holding on so well there. A reasonable error of margin allows Switch's sellthrough/sold to consumers figures to be as high as 149 million or more which makes 151-152 million shipment/sold possible.

Edit: @XtremeBG Those drops during the year are because of Zelda and Mario movie. Which means those drops aren't natural and unreasonable to determine what the drops will look like this year. 2025 even has the biggest software mover (Pokemon ZA) between the two years (2024 vs 2025).

Are we sure those numbers are correct? I mean we all know the Switch is a sucess but 900k+ only in europe in december ALONE?! 151 Million, hmm maybe, 152 million seems a bit high to me, but after this december i wouldn't be shocked if it actually happened. Anyway, 150 million by the end of 2024 is a dead lock now and the DS should fall sometime in summer! What comes after that depends on Switch software in 2025/26, when the sucessor comes and what price it is.

There's plenty of data suggesting Switch holding on better in EU than people expected. Vgchartz also shouldn't be your basis for what Nintendo is selling/shipping. Remember Vgchartz figures are estimated, you see vgchartz adjusting to Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft and the trackers reported figures for a reason. Nintendo likely needs to be closer to 152 million to meet the revised goal of 12.50 million for the fiscal year or alittle under 154 million shipped by March 31, 2025.

Last edited by Phenomajp13 - on 24 January 2025

Phenomajp13 said:
killer7 said:

Are we sure those numbers are correct? I mean we all know the Switch is a sucess but 900k+ only in europe in december ALONE?! 151 Million, hmm maybe, 152 million seems a bit high to me, but after this december i wouldn't be shocked if it actually happened. Anyway, 150 million by the end of 2024 is a dead lock now and the DS should fall sometime in summer! What comes after that depends on Switch software in 2025/26, when the sucessor comes and what price it is.

There's plenty of data suggesting Switch holding on better in EU than people expected. Vgchartz also shouldn't be your basis for what Nintendo is selling/shipping. Remember Vgchartz figures are estimated, you see vgchartz adjusting to Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft and the trackers reported figures for a reason. Nintendo likely needs to be closer to 152 million to meet the revised goal of 12.50 million for the fiscal year or alittle under 154 million shipped by March 31, 2025.

Of course vgchartz is not Point Blank on (not the game😉). But it should be close to the truth.