What is the business goal? Is it to maximize fiscal profits? If so, then launching Switch 2 ASAP while continuing to heavily promote Switch 1 (or Switch 1 & 2 ecosystem) software sales will be the best way to do it.

Some people seem to think the goal is to sell as many Switch hardware units as possible, rather than money. If that’s the case, bundles + price drop, and delay Switch 2 out beyond 2027, that would maximize Switch 1 sales. But companies don’t generally work this way.

There are aspects that influence the timing of the launch of Nintendo's next console that are independent on how well the Switch1 is still selling. Examples:

From 2027 in the EU batteries need to be replaceable by consumers. This rule was announced in 2023. If Switch2 would still be a Hybrid with 2Joycons, then all 3 will need to be designed in a way that this is possible. Now if Switch2 would have been in development for a while, was this a consideration at the time, or does it need a redesign that would delay its launch? Alternatively a 2027 refresh of the model could happen if the Switch2 is launched without meeting this requirement.

Also the manufacturing of the hardware and it's sub components is outsourced. These contracts have a certain lifecycle that are not endless, because e.g. the maintenance needed on the machinery producing these components. How older the machinery the higher maintenance cost will become. Does Nvidea e.g. want to keep investing in the maintenance of the TegraX1 production?

For Switch2 new manufacturing contracts will need to have been put in place, machinery has to be purchased / updated. This has at least a lead time of a year. If that happened before/in 2023, it's irrelevant of how well Switch1 is selling in 2023. At the same time if these contracts have not been put in place yet the same can be said how well 2024 will be.

In other words the planning for a new generation are probably mostly set in stone a while ago and really only regulatory changes could impact them because signed manufacturing contracts probably have a clause for situations like this. With no new refresh or new family member to the Switch family in 2023, I believe it's highly likely the Switch2 will start manufacturing in 2024. If this means its going to be launched in 2024 though is another matter.

Sure, software sales are very important but what makes you think they won’t start having similar YoY drops as hardware? 2023 had TotK, Mario Wonder and the Mario movie boosting sales of Mario titles in general, what is going to release in 2024 that will cause software sales to remain high this late in its life?

And you’re right that they certainly aren’t in a dire situation like they were in the 3DS/Wii U era, but why wait until hardware drops below 10m/year and software below 100m/year before releasing a successor?

Historically software sales don't collapse as fast as hardware sales. People who bought their Switch in the last years will still buying games to play on it. Software sales can decrease but Nintendo is safe for 2024, don't worry 

I can wait March 2025 if this means pushing Switch to be the best selling console of all times!

I voted for preferably, but after thinking about it and reading posts in this thread, I think it needs to.
I think Furukawa has already stated that he wants to avoid losing momentum like the Wii did to the Wii U, so while the Switch brand is still strong, it would be best for them to release it this year. I kind of hope for first half of this year.

I’m not saying software sales will collapse but they will definitely start seeing a notable decline, especially without huge hits like TotK or Mario Wonder.

I agree that 2024 sales will be fine (something like ~11m hardware, ~140m software) but 2025/2026 sales will not be fine, which is exactly why I think they need new hardware in late 2024 (early 2025 at the latest).

You want to have a seamless transition between generations rather than have one be on its deathbed before releasing a successor, which is what would happen if they wait until late 2025 or 2026 like some are suggesting.

You think its just for fun they have prototypes, running demos, and gathering devs to talk about it, and its capabilities gamescom ?

Supposedly its been going on for longer than that even, pre gamescom.

Once you have prototypes and devs working on software.... usually a product launches not to far into the future.

Why would they not launch it in 2024?


I think the Switch has seen, the last of its major titles from nintendo already.
From here on out, they ride it out, until the launch of the Switch 2.
Which will then have the next wave, of big titles ready to go at launch.

Thank you, I totally agree and confirm that software never overshadows hardware. And Sony is competing for a different demographic and goals than Nintendo, so PS5 Pro hardware wouldn't take a chunk of buyers from the NG (Nintendo's Next Gen), in fact I think NG would take a chunk out of PS5 purchases.

I don't see anything wrong with a 2026 release, but the real world clues we have from Nintendo themself prove that a new console is coming sooner than 2026. Plus I don't think Nintendo really cares about having the "#1 best selling console ever" title. I personally would love to see the Switch be #1, but I need to be realistic and understand that they might beat it, but they also might not.
But I do agree with your statement, yes, if NG releases in 2024 then the Switch will not beat 158.7M, and if the NG releases in 2026 (I even think 2025) then Switch will surpass 160M.

IcaroRiberio I totally agree that they should release the NG once they have sufficient stock, and sufficient game catalog to back up the NG. Which they will, hence why 2024 Switch catalog is looking a bit slim compared to 2022 and 2023 Spring season.

Regarding Dulfite,
There was never any indication that Nintendo was going to make the Switch be a 6 year console. 

“We believe that the Nintendo Switch business is now in its fourth year and is just in the middle of its life cycle. Rather than just the next year, I think about things in terms of what to do the following year and the year after that. We do not believe that the business trends of other companies will have a significant impact on our business." -Shuntaro Furuwaka 3/3/2020. https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2020/200202.pdf

Animal Crossing was released March 20th 2020, how could Furuwaka know that Animal Crossing was gonna increase Nintendo Switch sales the way it did during the pandemic. You can't, and he didn't. The most he could've done is release the game and hope it sticks, which luckily it did.
Animal Crossing: New Horizons was in development for 8 years. The last Animal Crossing was Animal Crossing: New Leaf and that sold 13.05M, and before that was Animal Crossing: Wild World at 11.75M. The best Nintendo expected most likely from New Horizons was around the 13M mark. (It did that almost in the first 6 days). So, I don't think they expected Animal Crossing to secure an 8 year life cycle for the Switch.

Nintendo already knew that they were at the middle of the Switch lifecycle at year 4. Meaning they expected to have the Switch last way longer than the usual 6 years for a console. This idea of the Switch is in the middle of its life cycle is reiterated once more by Furuwaka.

"It is now the fifth year since the launch of Nintendo Switch, and the total hardware sell-through has exceeded 90 million units. We recognize that the system is at the mid-point of its lifecycle."-Shuntaro Furuwaka 11/5/2021.

Nintendo actually expected to have around 10 years for the console life cycle. (At least according to the 2021 quote, and 8 years according to the 2020 quote). Hence why the Switch is still receiving AAA games even as "late" into the life cycle as now (Super Mario Bros Wonder), and wonderful remakes that have sold decent (Mario vs Donkey Kong 2004 1.37M, Paper Mario: Thousand Year Door 2004 1.91M), I dont expect them to be system movers, but at least they got something. 2024 marks the beginning of the 8th year for the Nintendo Switch. Personally my thoughts regarding this is if the NG isn't released in 2025 it will be released in 2027, but due to lots of information and clues (see my larger post on this thread in the middle of Page 2), we can expect March 2025.

This quote, from May 9, 2023, is in regards to selling 15M units. I assume you are referring to this quote. They were worried because they didn't know if that 15M would be possible.
Their catalog for 2023 up until May was:
Fire Emblem Engage 1.61M
Metroid Prime Remastered 1.09M
Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe 1.46M
-----After the Interview------
Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom 19.5M (-41% decrease from BotW, and yes I do understand that this is TotK's first year. It has sold ~195% in comparison of it's first year. Botw: ~10M, TotK 19.5M)
Pikmin 4 2.61M
Super Mario Bros Wonder 4.3M

And they know how their Spring 2024 catalog looks, which is why they are a bit worried to reach 15M.

I think a better quote for your argument would be
"As for the transition from Nintendo Switch to the next generation machine, we want to do as much as possible in order to smoothly transition our customers, while utilizing the Nintendo Account." -Shuntaro Furuwaka Jun 26, 2023
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/qa2306.pdf

This shows that they already have plans regarding the next console, and has the sense of urgency to make a "smooth transition" from Switch to NG. But as I stated above check out my post and read why I think March 2025.

It's also worth pointing out that the Game Boy was replaced by the GBA despite being at a second peak in terms of both software and hardware. The GBA itself was also at peak software sales when the DS was released. The DS had dipped a bit when the 3DS was released, but still shipped over 120M SW units that fiscal year, far better than any other system from any prior generation, and at the time the seventh-highest year for any system ever for Nintendo. Even the 3DS was doing fine in the 2016-17 fiscal year, yet that didn't stop the Switch from releasing (though total software sales in that fiscal year, home consoles & handhelds combined, was at their lowest point since at least 1997, to be fair).

Software doing well has generally not been a cause for Nintendo to delay releasing a system. Meanwhile, a delay could result in further declines in total software sales. Nintendo has forecast 185M software units for the fiscal year ending this coming March, which is outstanding and still better than any other year outside the DS–Wii era, but its still an over 21% decline from the peak, and it could get a lot worse next FY as there's probably very little in the way of major titles. The only Switch games on the slate for next FY so far are the remasters for Luigi's Mansion 2 and Paper Mario 2. There will probably be others, but I doubt it'll be anything big. Nintendo is probably saving all of the next major entries of their big IPs for the Switch 2, so we shouldn't expect anything else of the level of TOTK or Mario Wonder. All the Switch evergreens have been in steady decline, having disappeared from the U.S. Top 20 charts entirely in recent months, and, except for Mario Kart 8, have essentially been a non-factor in the Famitsu Top 10 as of late, so relying on years-old titles that have generally sold well most of their lives isn't something they can keep doing.

Even if Nintendo only forecasts 100M tops for Switch software next FY, a Switch 2 release, if said system does comparable to the Switch's software sales (and possibly better with brand recognition and some major killer app like MK9 and a new mainline 3D Mario), would easily keep FY2024-25 software shipments close to those of the current FY, with sales continuing to grow over the following couple of years as the Switch 2's library expands. A Switch 2 release later this year would ensure continuing strong software and hardware sales, with only a minimal decline from the generational transition. The whole point of restarting the cycle is to keep sales steady over time. They are a business, and the point is to make money.