Does Nintendo need to launch the Switch 2 in 2024?

[Shtinamin_]

Mar1217 said:

Pinkie_pie said:

Nintendo don't want switch 2 to clash with the Xbox series and PS5 pro in 2024. Gamers will just say how weak it is compare to the pro . GTA6 releasing in 2025 would just overshadow Switch 2 so it's best to release it in 2026

Historically and looking at what happen during the Switch cycle when the new PS5/Series consoles arrived. It had no bearing on the Switch best year in sales. It'd still make no sense even if a Switch 2 was to release alongside a PS5 Pro or whatever because Pro consoles are there to cather for existing owners people who see performance as the most important thing, which is not an important attribute for Nintendo hardware.

Also no, a software piece doesn't overshadow the release of hardware especially if the Switch 2 brings big titles at launch.

Thank you, I totally agree and confirm that software never overshadows hardware. And Sony is competing for a different demographic and goals than Nintendo, so PS5 Pro hardware wouldn't take a chunk of buyers from the NG (Nintendo's Next Gen), in fact I think NG would take a chunk out of PS5 purchases.

Pinkie_pie said:

What's wrong with releasing it in 2026? They should just take their time and not rush it. If Nintendo releasing Switch 2 in 2026 it could beat the PS2 which most of us want to see happen. Release it 2024 or 2025 then it's almost impossible to beat the PS2

I don't see anything wrong with a 2026 release, but the real world clues we have from Nintendo themself prove that a new console is coming sooner than 2026. Plus I don't think Nintendo really cares about having the "#1 best selling console ever" title. I personally would love to see the Switch be #1, but I need to be realistic and understand that they might beat it, but they also might not.
But I do agree with your statement, yes, if NG releases in 2024 then the Switch will not beat 158.7M, and if the NG releases in 2026 (I even think 2025) then Switch will surpass 160M.

Dulfite said:

IcaroRibeiro said:

Preferable but not a must

They should release when they have games. No point is rushing it

Thinking on the timeline, they typically have around 6 years for a console. During years 4-6, studios begin shifting development to the next console, especially if they released a game in year 3.

The Switch was acting like a normal console (nothing on steroids) until 2020 when lockdowns + Animal Crossing made it explode in popularity. That's year 3. Nintendo would have already started some studios on Switch 2 games by that point, plus they had no way to know the recent success would be sustained and sales wouldn't calm back down after a bit. They wouldn't want to leave their next console hanging with no games, so I'm sure a good chunk of their studios started in 2020 to work on games for the next console, with another chunk in 2021.

You can't just plan for a console to be as successful and have sales lasting as long as the Switch did, and you've *got* to stick to a game development schedule so your next console isn't dead on arrival with no software to support it.

But they didn't stick with a 6 year cycle. They pushed Switch 2 back from a typical March 2023 release window (or less) to probably later than March 2024 (7 + years later).

I say all this to state my belief that Nintendo is sitting or close to sitting on quite a few finished/soon to be finished Switch 2 games waiting for that consoles launch.

IcaroRiberio I totally agree that they should release the NG once they have sufficient stock, and sufficient game catalog to back up the NG. Which they will, hence why 2024 Switch catalog is looking a bit slim compared to 2022 and 2023 Spring season.

Regarding Dulfite,
There was never any indication that Nintendo was going to make the Switch be a 6 year console. 

“We believe that the Nintendo Switch business is now in its fourth year and is just in the middle of its life cycle. Rather than just the next year, I think about things in terms of what to do the following year and the year after that. We do not believe that the business trends of other companies will have a significant impact on our business." -Shuntaro Furuwaka 3/3/2020. https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2020/200202.pdf

Animal Crossing was released March 20th 2020, how could Furuwaka know that Animal Crossing was gonna increase Nintendo Switch sales the way it did during the pandemic. You can't, and he didn't. The most he could've done is release the game and hope it sticks, which luckily it did.
Animal Crossing: New Horizons was in development for 8 years. The last Animal Crossing was Animal Crossing: New Leaf and that sold 13.05M, and before that was Animal Crossing: Wild World at 11.75M. The best Nintendo expected most likely from New Horizons was around the 13M mark. (It did that almost in the first 6 days). So, I don't think they expected Animal Crossing to secure an 8 year life cycle for the Switch.

Nintendo already knew that they were at the middle of the Switch lifecycle at year 4. Meaning they expected to have the Switch last way longer than the usual 6 years for a console. This idea of the Switch is in the middle of its life cycle is reiterated once more by Furuwaka.

"It is now the fifth year since the launch of Nintendo Switch, and the total hardware sell-through has exceeded 90 million units. We recognize that the system is at the mid-point of its lifecycle."-Shuntaro Furuwaka 11/5/2021.

Nintendo actually expected to have around 10 years for the console life cycle. (At least according to the 2021 quote, and 8 years according to the 2020 quote). Hence why the Switch is still receiving AAA games even as "late" into the life cycle as now (Super Mario Bros Wonder), and wonderful remakes that have sold decent (Mario vs Donkey Kong 2004 1.37M, Paper Mario: Thousand Year Door 2004 1.91M), I dont expect them to be system movers, but at least they got something. 2024 marks the beginning of the 8th year for the Nintendo Switch. Personally my thoughts regarding this is if the NG isn't released in 2025 it will be released in 2027, but due to lots of information and clues (see my larger post on this thread in the middle of Page 2), we can expect March 2025.

FarleyMcFirefly said:

I voted for preferably, but after thinking about it and reading posts in this thread, I think it needs to.
I think Furukawa has already stated that he wants to avoid losing momentum like the Wii did to the Wii U, so while the Switch brand is still strong, it would be best for them to release it this year. I kind of hope for first half of this year.

This quote, from May 9, 2023, is in regards to selling 15M units. I assume you are referring to this quote. They were worried because they didn't know if that 15M would be possible.
Their catalog for 2023 up until May was:
Fire Emblem Engage 1.61M
Metroid Prime Remastered 1.09M
Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe 1.46M
-----After the Interview------
Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom 19.5M (-41% decrease from BotW, and yes I do understand that this is TotK's first year. It has sold ~195% in comparison of it's first year. Botw: ~10M, TotK 19.5M)
Pikmin 4 2.61M
Super Mario Bros Wonder 4.3M

And they know how their Spring 2024 catalog looks, which is why they are a bit worried to reach 15M.

I think a better quote for your argument would be
"As for the transition from Nintendo Switch to the next generation machine, we want to do as much as possible in order to smoothly transition our customers, while utilizing the Nintendo Account." -Shuntaro Furuwaka Jun 26, 2023
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/qa2306.pdf

This shows that they already have plans regarding the next console, and has the sense of urgency to make a "smooth transition" from Switch to NG. But as I stated above check out my post and read why I think March 2025.