Imma reiterate on my idea from another thread, but we'll honestly only have a real good idea of what their plans are looking like until the end of their fiscal year Q&A and next Nintendo Direct games announcements.

Heck I remember people basing their whole hypothesis of a Switch successor coming in 2022 or 2023 simply because each of them only has a tierce of the year covered first party wise.
We have nothing clear going on for this summer,fall and next Holiday season so far. Let them show once it's time too do so.

I’m one who has mocked people for saying Nintendo has nothing coming or that all the big games are already on Switch but eventually those statements are going to be true.

We are 2 months away from Switch’s 7th birthday and Nintendo has legitimately released just about all of their big hitters on Switch. I’m sure Nintendo has a few more unannounced Switch games up its sleeves but I can’t imagine any megatons.

This pretty much says it all right here.

Nintendo could announce a price drop for Switch, a banana colored model with a new Donkey Kong game, a new(ish) Pokemon game for the holidays along with Prime 4 and a couple of classic IPs we haven’t received yet and the Switch might be able to maintain 10m+ for the 2024 calendar year. And I think they should do all of that.

But why would Nintendo not launch Switch 2 around September and move 20m total systems instead? Honestly, I believe that could strengthen the Switch brand more (assuming they stick with it) and actually benefit the original Switch’s sales in the long run more than letting it ride out this holiday alone would.  And I don’t think the birth of Switch 2 means the immediate end of the original; Switch still has value as a low-end option for people if Nintendo makes the price reflective of a budget console and the transition to Switch 2 very easy.

They don't have any heavy hitters to carry them until next year. So yes. Sales are declining. Also the time is right. 3rd party devs need something else or they will stop supporting it as running into technical walls.

I would like to define a game as a heavy hitter as any game that sells over 3M units.
Here's my prediction of "heavy hitters" that can exist for Switch in 2024, with sales prediction (this does not constitute that these will come out, and are based on assumptions and trends, and whatever is left over franchise-wise).

• Mario Sports (Baseball?) 3.5M, we get a Mario Sport game from Camelot every three years with the last one being Mario Golf: Super Rush.
  
  
• Mario Party 2024 4.3M, NDCube releases a new Mario Party every 2 years.
• Tomadachi 4.8M
• Star Fox Switch 5.1M, If they can create a game like Star Fox 64 for the Switch then they will be set and reignite the Star Fox franchise.
• Mario & Sonic at the Paris Olympic Games 2024 6.2M, the last Olypmic games in 2019 was a flop selling near 1M as of March 2020, but that is why this one will sell well. They know what the people want. Recently, Jan 2023, Sega advertised for a "Client Programmer" who programs in Unity4 and Unreal.
  
  
• Donkey Kong (County 4, or 3D) 7.4M. The last DK game was Tropical Freeze in 2014 with a port in 2018. Its been 6 years since a DK game, longer if you dont count the port as actual work (a decade).
• Nintendogs 8.8M. If they were to release a Nintendogs they should've released it during the pandemic, it would've blown up like Animal Crossing.
• Pokémon Holiday 2024. 16M. Most likely a remake, for either Gen 2 or Gen 5 (Scarlet & Violet DLC are giving a lot of Gen 2 and Gen 5 love). They usually release a game every year, and DLC the following of the major gen in place of a game. Scarlet & Violet just finished their DLC in 2023, and a special episode in Jan 2024. Signs point to a new pokémon in November 2024.
  
  
  

Some franchises that I think would sell amazing on the Switch, but wouldn't sell over 3M or would never exist:
-Art Academy
-Rhythym Heaven
-Punch Out!
-Duck Hunt
-Mother remakes.

OK, Switch 2017 was really big and it was preceded by basically abandoning the WiiU beforehand. I don't see that easily replicated. Also Zelda TOTK is already out, this was without a doubt the big flagship release in 2017. I am also unsure about your lineup here. 3D Mario would be my guess for the big title, but beyond that it could be smaller titles mostly. I don't see Mario Kart 9 early on and Pokemon - GameFreak do what they want. I also don't know about Animal Crossing, I feel like this doesn't need to be an early title, because the customers of that don't care so much about power and releases and could easily be drawn in later too. Early on Nintendo needs the enthusiasts and more dedicated people to get the momentum rolling. So yeah, 3D Mario and an assembly of smaller titles, probably also quite some ports from Switch if the next system isn't backward compatible.

Power is irrelevant (or let's say less relevant), sold units are. As long as Switch has a high install base and Switch gamers buy games, it gets ports. Compare Switch to WiiU to see it. Comparably WiiU was much closer to then current hardware than Switch. Yet Switch got the games while WiiU didn't. Switch got Witcher 3 and Skyrim, WiiU did not. Power doesn't matter as much in the big picture.

I feel like you on this one. They don't need to release this year, but they couldn't have known when they set the wheels in motion. I think they have wiggle room for a few months and probably don't feel the need to rush right now. But I feel like their next hardware is about completely specced at this time with only minor changes likely and development on games for the next system is well underway. So yeah, a few months, which could mean they push it until early 2025. Their current lineup points to end of 2024. And I said it already when they announced their really long line of Mario Kart DLC, that this probably gives a time frame for the intended life cycle of the Switch. So maybe the lifetime was already stretched a little and filled with titles like Princess Peach and the Another Code remaster.

No one is going to buy a Switch for most those games. The games Switch has lined up this year are just to coast to mainly existing owners until Switch 2 launches. Then you have years like 2019 where maybe they didn't have a BOTW or Odyssey but lined everything up close together. Mario Maker 2. Astral Chain. Daemon X Machina. Zelda Links Awakening. Banjo DLC for Smash. Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3.  Dragon Quest XI-S in a span of just a few short months. Now? It's fairly quiet with a game here or there. But it's clear. A luigis' mansion port and some old Gamecube game and a peach game. Yeah that's just coasting.

Really? No one. 
That's why I said heavy hitter, and described it. If a game sells over 3M then there will be a good number of Switch units sold. Most likely in the tens of thousands (like the Mario Sports game), and could be in the hundred thousand (like Pokémon Nov 2024).

I agree 2024 line is coasting. I was writing down the franchises that could come up later this year based on trends of the developers, and franchises that havent gotten to the Switch, and are some of the best selling franchises (in fact the top 28 Nintendo Franchises).

The ports are to get older gamers excited and expand the fan pool, and the peach game is to get more girls on the Nintendo Train. Nintendo is playing the field really good even for a coasting year.