I agree completely other than I don’t think it matters if it launches in September, October or November. The 1 or 2 month difference doesn’t matter. But to expand on your point, I don’t even think a price cut will be able to prolong Switch to 2025. It’s just too late in its life for a price cut to have a major impact, all it would do is slow down the decline modestly.

Just wondering how you how you arrived at this speculation. I'm sure it's based on grounded information from sources, so I'm hoping I could read up on them myself.

Let's put it this way. The way the Switch's sales are headed, this year is on track to be one of Nintendo's worst sales years in at least the past 30 years... that is unless the Switch 2 releases to make up for it. Investors aren't going to be too keen on seeing the line continue to go down. If the Switch 2 is ready to go this year, it's coming out.

NPD and Famitsu threads are a good start, not just here but elsewhere. For example, November was waaaaay down year-over-year, like well over 40% in both the U.S. and Japan, and December's not looking like it'll fare any better either if Famitsu data is any indication. Those are big drops. Q3 2023 was pretty rough as well in the U.S., with it being way down YoY (by around 33%), as well as its weakest Q3 and weakest non-holiday quarter to date.

Well damn. I was just thinking a couple of days ago that that Wii-like cliff won't be a problem for Switch.

I don't really go thread hunting these days; I just stick to whatever the newest ones show up in the latest hot topics. I figured the only times sales threads with hard data are relevant anymore are after quarterly earnings and sales reports. Still, it's good to be informed.

I think December can still be a decent hold (<30% down) but next year will be very rough for the Switch YoY-wise, especially Q1-Q2 2024. A higher-than-50% decline isn't out of the question barring some price cuts or new models.

No problem.

As for the Wii–Switch comparisons, their post-peak trajectories actually have several things in common, at least in the U.S.:

1) Assuming the Switch is replaced later this year, there was a roughly 4-year gap between when both systems peaked in the U.S. and when they were replaced.

2) The Wii sold nearly 4.58M in 2011, down 55.4% from its peak year of 2008.  and. Assuming my predictions for December hold true, we're looking at ~4.28M units for the Switch for 2023 as a whole, 52.3% down from the peak year of 2020. So, that's very similar declines from peak year to three years later.

3) The Wii declined 35.8% from 2010 to 2011. The 2022 to 2023 drop for the Switch was 26.2%, again assuming my prediction for December holds true (the final number could be 2-3 percentage points off from that). That's not as bad as the Wii's 2010-11 drop, but the Switch's 2023 did benefit from Q2 being up a bit YoY due to TOTK and the associated LE OLED SKU, which offset significant declines in Q1, Q3, and almost certainly Q4. Take Q2 out of the equation, and the rest of 2023 was down ~36% YoY (plus or minus 2-3%), again comparable to the Wii's drop from 2010 to 2011.

If the Switch has a similar drop-off this year as what the Wii experienced in 2012, it will end up selling under 2M units in the U.S., I doubt it'll be that bad, but I doubt it'll reach 3M. Probably somewhere in the 2.5-2.75M range if I had to guess. We'll have to see what happens with sales here in the first quarter, which should clue us on how well the Switch will fare in 2024. January being under 200k would be an early warning sign of a (relatively) slow year for the Switch.

Of course, in Japan the Wii and Switch had very different sales curves, the latter faring much, much better. The Wii peaked in its first full year. 2011 was a mere 23% of 2008 sales. The Switch didn't peak until its fourth year (and fifth; 2021 was nearly identical to 2022), and 2023 as a whole is looking to be down only around 33% or so from that peak. Nevertheless, its Q4 2023 is not looking so hot (worst November and, so far, worst December, and it's not even close for either), and given the typical post-New Year drop-off, we should probably expect its worst January ever as well.

Nintendo is in a comfortable position. 2024 the Switch sales will drop but I can't see the software sales drop drastically. Therefore, everything is fine. Nintendo is good at cruising through less successful years. They know how to calm down nervous investors. No need for the Switch 2 to release in 2024.

As much as I'd dread this, Switch 2 could come out in 2026 and Nintendo would still be making massive profits on Switch regardless.
2024 is not a must. Switch has still been printing money in 2023 and there's little chance it will fall off a huge cliff in 2024.
I'd really like Q3 or Q4 2024, but I can wait until Q1 2025. Anything past Q1 2025 is going to feel like a painful wait (and I've been ready for Switch 2 anyway since March 2023). I've had Switch since July 2017, and having a PS4 Pro and PS5 have only made Switch's weak hardware more apparent.
I think the only way Nintendo will hurt big time financially is if there is no late-stage Switch Pro (or something like Game Boy Color) before 2026 and they drag Switch out until 2027. A decade is far too long without replacement.

I think people are kinda misjudging how important the hardware sales are for Nintendo operating income and revenue. Software is mostly what does the heavy lifting for them.

They're not gonna throw a pity party at their shareholders Q&A if said revenue is still as strong ever because their software sales remain high. Last financial quarter was a record breaking one for them.

Some people are acting out like Nintendo is literally on the verge of WiiU/3DS revenue years if they don't have the Switch successor ready for this year. But so far, we're not close to that.

In this economy, still decent sales of Switch, and lacking even a detailed announcement of Switch 2 (or still even a real pro model), I just really don't see the true successor releasing this same year. While I'm more unsure of my initial out-there prediction of 2027, I think 2025 or even later is still more likely.