As much as I'd dread this, Switch 2 could come out in 2026 and Nintendo would still be making massive profits on Switch regardless.
2024 is not a must. Switch has still been printing money in 2023 and there's little chance it will fall off a huge cliff in 2024.
I'd really like Q3 or Q4 2024, but I can wait until Q1 2025. Anything past Q1 2025 is going to feel like a painful wait (and I've been ready for Switch 2 anyway since March 2023). I've had Switch since July 2017, and having a PS4 Pro and PS5 have only made Switch's weak hardware more apparent.
I think the only way Nintendo will hurt big time financially is if there is no late-stage Switch Pro (or something like Game Boy Color) before 2026 and they drag Switch out until 2027. A decade is far too long without replacement.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)
PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)
Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima
