Niko Partners, a big China market intelligence, has great ties in the gaming world including: Activsion Blizzard, Google, Nvidia, Sony, Take Two Interactive, Tencent, Unity, and Nintendo. And they are predicting an NG announcement this 2024 from Nintendo.

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/459507/analyst-predicts-switch-successor-to-be-announced-in-2024-ps5-pro-to-release-this-year/

Based on this if Nintendo announces the NG this year, then it should be releasing in 2025.
I want to predict March 2025, that way they can have the immediate die-hard fans at the beginning, have the word of mouth hype throughout the year, and the 2025 Holiday season build up for games. 3D Mario, Mario Kart 9, Pokémon, COD, and even some bigger 3rd party developers.

So no, Nintendo does not need to release their successor in 2024.

It's entirely possible for it to be announced, unveiled and launched within 2024. Products don't need the same long lead times to build awareness and hype like in years past.

In fact, I think it would serve Nintendo better not to officially announce and unveil it way ahead of time, because all that will do is gut Switch sales even faster. Think of how dead Black Friday and Christmas 2024 will be for Switch if everyone is knows to just wait for Switch 2. If Nintendo were to unveil it anywhere from June-October this year and launch it in March next year, that's more than half a year of no sales momentum at all for the current Nintendo product in the market now, which includes the aforementioned holiday season.

Exactly, I agree. A June-Oct announcement will cannibalize the Switch. I'm hoping for a Late November announcement. because only the big Nintendo fanatics watch those (including me), with advertisement starting in Jan 2025 for a March 2025 release.

I think the only reason why I think Spring 2025, specifically March, is that the NX dev kits were given out 2 years before the Switch, and the announcement was a year after the dev kits. Which is on track with what we are seeing with the NG. Dev Kits in 2023, Announcement in 2024, and supposedly release in 2025.

Agree with all this, and also throw in the economy into the mix.

Not sure about the US or EU, but here in Australia, interest rates on home loans have doubled in the last two years, rent has skyrocketed, food prices have skyrocketed, CPI has skyrocketed and most people's wages only gone up 2%-3% in that time frame, far below CPI.

Since thee last three interest rate rises, my sales have dropped to 50%, people can't afford to buy entertainment when they can't pay rent, bills and for food. The common working man cannot afford luxury items like gaming consoles atm. So to me until the economy stabilises and wages catch up, the majority people who will be buying a new Nintendo in the first year or two will be Nintendo fans. Based on that I don't think it matters if its end of 2024 or early 2025 as the sales won't be drastically different. 

I know it's against Nintendo's nature, but they better off dropping the Switch price down 30% (or as far as break even point is) in each region and let the wave ride out a few more sales, which will help move more software. Most struggling families would appreciate such a drastic price drop and could win over some future fans next gen when economies stabilise. 

Unrelated to this topic but I totally agree, interest rates have doubled over here in USA, and food prices have doubled (tripled if we bring in shrinkflation, where food and packaging is smaller, giving you less food for same price as the original size of food), and 65% of working Americans (about 55% of all americans are working class: low paying, limited skill required, and has an element of physical labor) live on a paycheck to paycheck life. Sometimes they dont have any money to spend at the end of the month.

@Cobretti2 you got this, keep it up, pay off any debts and make smart purchases. Invest in yourself.

Supposedly, a weaker economy doesn't have an impact on luxury purchases. I think that statistic is BS (on a personal level at least). If I dont have money to buy food, Im not gonna buy an expense gaming console. I'm probably gonna "solve" the issue by getting another job, and then I wont ever have time for my luxuries, like gaming.

In economic terms I think we might be heading to something much worse in the future, but I'd rather not have that.

The gaming companies won't see a huge drop in sales in 2024 or 2025 (given the stat regarding middle class will still purchase luxury goods even in a weaker economy).

And I agree, it is against Nintendo's nature to drop the price of a console (at least before the successor's launch), and a drop would lead to more console purchases (widening the fan base), and more game purchases (deepening the fan base).

After the release of Zelda TOTK I would have said that a 2025 launch would be fine, but since October it's quite obvious that Nintendo has to release new hardware in 2024. In November sales were down 40% year-on-year and I guess that this should also be the case for December '23.

I expect that Switch sells less than 10 million in 2024, which would be lower than in its first full year (2018). Nintendo has to release new hardware this year, otherwise they would lose too many customers to Sony.

We should see an announcement in May after their financial report, a reveal of name, hardware and launch lineup in June and a release in November 2024.

I wonder if TOTK leeched sales away from the holiday season. 

There could've been a good number of customers who were like

"I really wanna play Tears of the Kingdom and some other Switch games, but I don't want to wait all the way until November or December to get a Switch."

It'll be really interesting if Switch 2 launches 2025 or later so we can see how November and December 2024 compare to the end of 2023. Of course, if Switch 2 launches this year than Switch sales would be lower than Switch on its own unless Switch gets a major price cut and has crossgen games alongside Switch 2.

In 2022 we got Switch Sports (which should've been a huge hit) in April, Splatoon 3 in September, and Pokémon Scarlet and Violet in November. What a huge late Q2-Q3. Hence a solid holiday sale.
2023 we got Tears of the Kingdom in May and Super Mario Bros Wonder in October. There was no holiday game. Q1 was grand compared to Q3. Hence the lack of holiday sales we are used to seeing for a 7 year old console. Still very impressive compared to every other console before it. Essentially on par with how PS2 sold in it's 7th year (minus december).

People nowadays are unable to wait 6 months, people have been playing too many Candy Crush, too many Youtube, Tik Tok, Instagram shorts, and just too must instant gratification. I completely agree with you in regards to the leeching holiday sales.

If the Switch sells at least 3 million this December, then the share of consoles sold in the holidays, compared to its yearly numbers, will be about the same as they have been since 2020 (around a fifth).

Nothing unusual there, Zelda or not.