Does Nintendo need to launch the Switch 2 in 2024?

[Shtinamin_]

Wman1996 said:

siebensus4 said:

After the release of Zelda TOTK I would have said that a 2025 launch would be fine, but since October it's quite obvious that Nintendo has to release new hardware in 2024. In November sales were down 40% year-on-year and I guess that this should also be the case for December '23.

I expect that Switch sells less than 10 million in 2024, which would be lower than in its first full year (2018). Nintendo has to release new hardware this year, otherwise they would lose too many customers to Sony.

We should see an announcement in May after their financial report, a reveal of name, hardware and launch lineup in June and a release in November 2024.

I wonder if TOTK leeched sales away from the holiday season. 

There could've been a good number of customers who were like

"I really wanna play Tears of the Kingdom and some other Switch games, but I don't want to wait all the way until November or December to get a Switch."

It'll be really interesting if Switch 2 launches 2025 or later so we can see how November and December 2024 compare to the end of 2023. Of course, if Switch 2 launches this year than Switch sales would be lower than Switch on its own unless Switch gets a major price cut and has crossgen games alongside Switch 2.

In 2022 we got Switch Sports (which should've been a huge hit) in April, Splatoon 3 in September, and Pokémon Scarlet and Violet in November. What a huge late Q2-Q3. Hence a solid holiday sale.
2023 we got Tears of the Kingdom in May and Super Mario Bros Wonder in October. There was no holiday game. Q1 was grand compared to Q3. Hence the lack of holiday sales we are used to seeing for a 7 year old console. Still very impressive compared to every other console before it. Essentially on par with how PS2 sold in it's 7th year (minus december).

People nowadays are unable to wait 6 months, people have been playing too many Candy Crush, too many Youtube, Tik Tok, Instagram shorts, and just too must instant gratification. I completely agree with you in regards to the leeching holiday sales.