Does Nintendo need to launch the Switch 2 in 2024?

[Shadow1980]

zorg1000 said:

IcaroRibeiro said:

Historically software sales don't collapse as fast as hardware sales. People who bought their Switch in the last years will still buying games to play on it. Software sales can decrease but Nintendo is safe for 2024, don't worry 

I’m not saying software sales will collapse but they will definitely start seeing a notable decline, especially without huge hits like TotK or Mario Wonder.

I agree that 2024 sales will be fine (something like ~11m hardware, ~140m software) but 2025/2026 sales will not be fine, which is exactly why I think they need new hardware in late 2024 (early 2025 at the latest).

You want to have a seamless transition between generations rather than have one be on its deathbed before releasing a successor, which is what would happen if they wait until late 2025 or 2026 like some are suggesting.

It's also worth pointing out that the Game Boy was replaced by the GBA despite being at a second peak in terms of both software and hardware. The GBA itself was also at peak software sales when the DS was released. The DS had dipped a bit when the 3DS was released, but still shipped over 120M SW units that fiscal year, far better than any other system from any prior generation, and at the time the seventh-highest year for any system ever for Nintendo. Even the 3DS was doing fine in the 2016-17 fiscal year, yet that didn't stop the Switch from releasing (though total software sales in that fiscal year, home consoles & handhelds combined, was at their lowest point since at least 1997, to be fair).

Software doing well has generally not been a cause for Nintendo to delay releasing a system. Meanwhile, a delay could result in further declines in total software sales. Nintendo has forecast 185M software units for the fiscal year ending this coming March, which is outstanding and still better than any other year outside the DS–Wii era, but its still an over 21% decline from the peak, and it could get a lot worse next FY as there's probably very little in the way of major titles. The only Switch games on the slate for next FY so far are the remasters for Luigi's Mansion 2 and Paper Mario 2. There will probably be others, but I doubt it'll be anything big. Nintendo is probably saving all of the next major entries of their big IPs for the Switch 2, so we shouldn't expect anything else of the level of TOTK or Mario Wonder. All the Switch evergreens have been in steady decline, having disappeared from the U.S. Top 20 charts entirely in recent months, and, except for Mario Kart 8, have essentially been a non-factor in the Famitsu Top 10 as of late, so relying on years-old titles that have generally sold well most of their lives isn't something they can keep doing.

Even if Nintendo only forecasts 100M tops for Switch software next FY, a Switch 2 release, if said system does comparable to the Switch's software sales (and possibly better with brand recognition and some major killer app like MK9 and a new mainline 3D Mario), would easily keep FY2024-25 software shipments close to those of the current FY, with sales continuing to grow over the following couple of years as the Switch 2's library expands. A Switch 2 release later this year would ensure continuing strong software and hardware sales, with only a minimal decline from the generational transition. The whole point of restarting the cycle is to keep sales steady over time. They are a business, and the point is to make money.