There are aspects that influence the timing of the launch of Nintendo's next console that are independent on how well the Switch1 is still selling. Examples:
From 2027 in the EU batteries need to be replaceable by consumers. This rule was announced in 2023. If Switch2 would still be a Hybrid with 2Joycons, then all 3 will need to be designed in a way that this is possible. Now if Switch2 would have been in development for a while, was this a consideration at the time, or does it need a redesign that would delay its launch? Alternatively a 2027 refresh of the model could happen if the Switch2 is launched without meeting this requirement.
Also the manufacturing of the hardware and it's sub components is outsourced. These contracts have a certain lifecycle that are not endless, because e.g. the maintenance needed on the machinery producing these components. How older the machinery the higher maintenance cost will become. Does Nvidea e.g. want to keep investing in the maintenance of the TegraX1 production?
For Switch2 new manufacturing contracts will need to have been put in place, machinery has to be purchased / updated. This has at least a lead time of a year. If that happened before/in 2023, it's irrelevant of how well Switch1 is selling in 2023. At the same time if these contracts have not been put in place yet the same can be said how well 2024 will be.
In other words the planning for a new generation are probably mostly set in stone a while ago and really only regulatory changes could impact them because signed manufacturing contracts probably have a clause for situations like this. With no new refresh or new family member to the Switch family in 2023, I believe it's highly likely the Switch2 will start manufacturing in 2024. If this means its going to be launched in 2024 though is another matter.
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