Does Nintendo need to launch the Switch 2 in 2024?

[zorg1000]

IcaroRibeiro said:

zorg1000 said:

Sure, software sales are very important but what makes you think they won’t start having similar YoY drops as hardware? 2023 had TotK, Mario Wonder and the Mario movie boosting sales of Mario titles in general, what is going to release in 2024 that will cause software sales to remain high this late in its life?

And you’re right that they certainly aren’t in a dire situation like they were in the 3DS/Wii U era, but why wait until hardware drops below 10m/year and software below 100m/year before releasing a successor?

Historically software sales don't collapse as fast as hardware sales. People who bought their Switch in the last years will still buying games to play on it. Software sales can decrease but Nintendo is safe for 2024, don't worry 

I’m not saying software sales will collapse but they will definitely start seeing a notable decline, especially without huge hits like TotK or Mario Wonder.

I agree that 2024 sales will be fine (something like ~11m hardware, ~140m software) but 2025/2026 sales will not be fine, which is exactly why I think they need new hardware in late 2024 (early 2025 at the latest).

You want to have a seamless transition between generations rather than have one be on its deathbed before releasing a successor, which is what would happen if they wait until late 2025 or 2026 like some are suggesting.