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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS5 Ships 59.3M by 31.03.2024. LT sales expectations?


Lifetime sales expectations

Under 100M 4 12.90%
100-110M 14 45.16%
110-130M 11 35.48%
130-150M 0 0%
150M+ 2 6.45%

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It will be ahead of PS4 at the end, and Xbox becoming 3°party will help in this.

Almost got it to the magical 56m units at the end of 2023 on its own.

NobleTeam360 said:

I think it can do better than the PS4 so I'll go with 120-130 million range.

I'm still bummed PS4 didn't hit 120 millions or at least 119 millions to beat GameBoy, hopefully PS5 can.

Voted 120M

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Their nonchalant approach to first-party releases has me a bit miffed. Feels like they're coasting a bit since Xbox is almost dead. Where's the Sony of the PS3 and PS4 days?

Feels like there's nothing left to look forward to when I get FF7 Rebirth until DS2 releases like 18 months from now. GTA6 is coming up, yeah, but weren't for that I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up around PS4 levels even though Xbox shrunk so much.






I called it that the PS5 wont reach that lofty 25 mil in a FY. I will say again, PS5 wont reach 100 mil or maybe 105 mil tops. And by the time GTA6 comes, all who wants that game have already purchased a PS5 by then. So, it wont increase PS5 or Seriexs X by much. Facts.

Sony just announced that they changed their forecast for the upcoming fiscal year from 25 million to 21 million and said price cuts would be very difficult.
The best hope for PS5 to outsell PS4 and Game Boy/Game Boy Color would be:
1. No PS6 until 2028. This could happen, but 2027 is still a very real possibility.
2. A price cut in the future down to $350 USD or even $400 USD and of course price cuts internationally.
3. At least one more PS5 exclusive as big as Spider-Man 2. Honestly, I don't see that happening.
I voted in the wide 100-120 million range, but think about 108-115 million is more in the expected range..

Edit: The forecast is for the almost ending current fiscal year. Still, I don't think Sony is going to predict 25 million or more for the next fiscal year. 

Last edited by Wman1996 - on 15 February 2024

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Sticking with 100-120m for now. PS5 has been doing exceptionally well in North America due to taking even more market share away from Xbox this generation. It has also managed to keep pace with its predecessor in Japan as well, but the weakness of the European market, especially given the economic downturn and increased competition there, will likely ensure that sales remain slightly behind that of the PS4 for the foreseeable future.

Predictions of a longer generation also seem to be overstated given today's statement by Sony that the PS5 is the the latter half of its lifecycle, not to mention the inability to cut prices and thus prolong sales of the console. The lack of many exclusives in the pipeline also seems to be a recurring issue, to the extent that Sony is projecting a decline in sales for this coming FY (which would imply sales potentially under the PS4's 19m and a peak sales year of 2023). Overall, I believe it will probably do about 40m in NA, 10m in JP, 35-40m in EUR, and 20m elsewhere for ~105-110m 

Last edited by CheddarPlease - on 14 February 2024

I don't think they'll wait, but it would be good to see this gen stretch out until such a point as the boxes could retail for half their current prices. I mean what does a new gen even have to offer the average consumer? More fps and raytracing? The only worthwhile change I noticed from last gen (One X/PS4) to this (Series X) already was the faster loading times. It is hardly a game changer for most, and much less than lower prices would be. Keep the gen going for longer so we see lower prices, and see if the 'big 2' console makers can shift 200~220m units between them rather than 170~175m, with the added units and wider install base helping improve software sales to improve the outlook for studios, fund additional game development and give them a return. Refresh if necessary with Pro units and expand the market with handhelds. Much easier to do hitting current gen specs than next-gen. Keep this generation going for a long time, 2029 even, but with new releases hitting through 2030 as well. 

We're not going to *need* a next gen as console owners until the PC is doing something light-years above what current gen consoles can do, and the games it can run are just not possible on current gen, and we don't look anywhere near that stage. A $500~$600 console box the equivalent of  RTX 4090 in 2027/2028 isn't going to be enough of a leap over current gen in my opinion. Take one step further back from your screen and any additional fidelity you've gained disappears. The jump is going to need to be bigger than that imo, and so I don't reckon we'll be able to get there in a short time period. And if we don't, it means that next gen is also going to be slow going for unit sales and games, as after the first blush of keen gamers, the price and lack of obvious difference will keep others away.

Last edited by Gettysburg4 - on 14 February 2024