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I don't think they'll wait, but it would be good to see this gen stretch out until such a point as the boxes could retail for half their current prices. I mean what does a new gen even have to offer the average consumer? More fps and raytracing? The only worthwhile change I noticed from last gen (One X/PS4) to this (Series X) already was the faster loading times. It is hardly a game changer for most, and much less than lower prices would be. Keep the gen going for longer so we see lower prices, and see if the 'big 2' console makers can shift 200~220m units between them rather than 170~175m, with the added units and wider install base helping improve software sales to improve the outlook for studios, fund additional game development and give them a return. Refresh if necessary with Pro units and expand the market with handhelds. Much easier to do hitting current gen specs than next-gen. Keep this generation going for a long time, 2029 even, but with new releases hitting through 2030 as well. 

We're not going to *need* a next gen as console owners until the PC is doing something light-years above what current gen consoles can do, and the games it can run are just not possible on current gen, and we don't look anywhere near that stage. A $500~$600 console box the equivalent of  RTX 4090 in 2027/2028 isn't going to be enough of a leap over current gen in my opinion. Take one step further back from your screen and any additional fidelity you've gained disappears. The jump is going to need to be bigger than that imo, and so I don't reckon we'll be able to get there in a short time period. And if we don't, it means that next gen is also going to be slow going for unit sales and games, as after the first blush of keen gamers, the price and lack of obvious difference will keep others away.

Last edited by Gettysburg4 - on 14 February 2024