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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sony no longer reporting PS4 shipments, Final Official total 117.00m

 

Will PS5 outsell PS4

Yes 23 23.71%
 
No 74 76.29%
 
Total:97
Kyuu said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I'm sure many of them have had a look at the statistics and see that the chances that the PS5 outselling the PS4 would break some established trends.

Playstation + Xbox sales taken together have always amounted to ~175M each gen:

  1. PS2+Xbox: 183M
  2. PS3+360: 173M
  3. PS4+XBO: 168M

Meaning if the Xbox is stronger, then the Playstation sells less as a result. Since the XS is selling much better than it's direct predecessor, unless this gen breaks with the model it established the 3 previous generations, PS5 should sell less than the PS4 did.

That being said, there are some unknowns that could alter this a bit: How long this generation will be can have an effect for instance, if there will be some mid-gen upgrades like the PS4 Pro last gen, and so on. So far, noting shows that this gen will deviate from the previous generations, but time will tell if this will stay the same.

Another thing to note is that the Playstation + Xbox total has been dropping a bit each generation. This trend will have to be reversed for there to be any chance for the PS5 to outsell the PS4 since the XS will almost certainly outsell the XBO.

These trends are caused by the quality perception of their consoles. Xbox wasn't nearly as good as the PS2, so most gamers didn't think they were missing out on much. PS3 and X360 were comparable but neither of them were on the level of PS2 or PS1, PS3 had a terrible start and X360 a slow start. Xbox One wasn't as good as the PS4 which is universally considered better than the PS3. PS5 and Xbox Series should break this trend because for the first time, BOTH of them are highly desirable so far. Furthermore, Game Pass is a unique selling point that may appeal to a demographic outside the traditional gaming community, and also increase the percentage of multi console owners. VR has some potential too.

"So far, noting shows that this gen will deviate from the previous generations"

Demand for PS5 and Series consoles is much greater than PS4 and Xbox One. If this is considered "nothing", then what isn't?

If there is one concern to PS and/or Xbox eventually declining, it'd have to be PC. In the long run, PC may prove a bigger threat to console sales than either console is to the other, because it's virtually getting everything... games, accessibility, convenience, continued free online, and even portability. PC is just too appealing of a platform that you don't really need trends to recognize its potential to steal console gamers in very large numbers. It's kind of been happening for a while actually, I know a lot of console gamers who switched to PC ever since the start of the last generation.

Seems like that might haver been temporary as Sony expects profits to be down and software sales are way down for a system that already wasn't seeing great software sales

https://www.theverge.com/2022/7/29/23283410/sony-playstation-game-sales-down-q1-2022

Its more likely that trend will decrease, not increase. COVID gave a temporary boost to the industry but that's waning and its likely going in the other direction due to high inflation and possible recession on the horizon (or worse, stagflation). 



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As stated previously, when looking at PS and Xbox generations combined they don't really exceed a certain threshold. Whilst you can call it extrapolation, it does remain a general trend. Xbox is clearly doing better this generation, with around an extra of 2.5 million more consoles at this time than last generation.

I'd also like to point out that everyone who claims that the PS5 could sell x amount of units a week if it had the stock. It could, but not sustained.

*Note all of these numbers are arbitrary*
If 2 million people want a PS5 right this moment and 100,000 extra people wanted one each passing week, but sony can only produce 200,000 units a week, then we would have sustained sales of 200,000 for about 20 weeks before declining to 100,000 which is the new amount of people interested in getting into the market.
2,000,000 + 100,000x - 200,000x
where x equals number of weeks

But if sony could produce 300,000 they would have sustained sales of 300,000 for about 10 weeks before dropping down.

The reason I bring this up is because for as unsure as we are about the current excess demand for the ps5, we can't say for certain that these sales figure would carry on, just as we can't say that the number of consoles sold in a generation between PS and Xbox are for sure interlinked, we just have an idea of the trend

Last edited by badskywalker - on 11 August 2022

Kyuu said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I'm sure many of them have had a look at the statistics and see that the chances that the PS5 outselling the PS4 would break some established trends.

Playstation + Xbox sales taken together have always amounted to ~175M each gen:

  1. PS2+Xbox: 183M
  2. PS3+360: 173M
  3. PS4+XBO: 168M

Meaning if the Xbox is stronger, then the Playstation sells less as a result. Since the XS is selling much better than it's direct predecessor, unless this gen breaks with the model it established the 3 previous generations, PS5 should sell less than the PS4 did.

That being said, there are some unknowns that could alter this a bit: How long this generation will be can have an effect for instance, if there will be some mid-gen upgrades like the PS4 Pro last gen, and so on. So far, noting shows that this gen will deviate from the previous generations, but time will tell if this will stay the same.

Another thing to note is that the Playstation + Xbox total has been dropping a bit each generation. This trend will have to be reversed for there to be any chance for the PS5 to outsell the PS4 since the XS will almost certainly outsell the XBO.

"So far, noting shows that this gen will deviate from the previous generations"

Demand for PS5 and Series consoles is much greater than PS4 and Xbox One. If this is considered "nothing", then what isn't?

If there is one concern to PS and/or Xbox eventually declining, it'd have to be PC. In the long run, PC may prove a bigger threat to console sales than either console is to the other, because it's virtually getting everything... games, accessibility, convenience, continued free online, and even portability. PC is just too appealing of a platform that you don't really need trends to recognize its potential to steal console gamers in very large numbers. It's kind of been happening for a while actually, I know a lot of console gamers who switched to PC ever since the start of the last generation.

Demand was much greater due to Covid. Not sure if it is still that much greater than PS4/XBO at the same time period after launch.

Also, this could just mean that the systems are more front-loaded. Having a big start doesn't have to mean it will last for a long while, just look at the Wii.

As for the PC part, I think that's the reason why Playstation plus Xbox totals have been constantly dropping each generation, but I don't think the PC will cut the legs of this gen short.



Well Sony stated at the end of last year or beginning of this year, when PS4 sales were 116 and change, that they were only going to produce 1 million more, so for anyone who remembers that announcement we already knew 117.xx was going to be the final number.

I think Sony cut PS4 off so drastically because of supply issues. What systems they could manufacture they wanted to make sure they got out as many PS5's as possible.

As for the Xbox + PS numbers this gen, I think we'll see it get back to around that PS2+Xbox number of 183 million, perhaps even a bit above it. I don't think the slow decline of that market will continue this gen, as both companies have decent offerings. Xbox is strong this gen relative to last gen and PS is fairly strong as always and I think PS5 will pass 100 million but I don't see it doing 117 million. I could see 100-105 million for PS5 and 75-80 million for Xbox. I think they'll try to stretch out this gen as much as possible and have mid-gen upgrades like last gen.

Passing Wii and PS1 I think would be a great goal for PS5.

Last edited by Slownenberg - on 11 August 2022

#4 highest selling system of all time is a very impressive result, Sony should be very happy with this, especially surpassing its predecessor the PS3 by roughly 30 million units.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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PS4 deserves the success it had for the most part but some of it is overinflated thanks to Wii U and XBO being such fuck ups. XBO to me is the worst console ever made to surpass 50 million units. It's practically a worthless system esp now. Vita. Dreamcast. Saturn. PC Engine are better systems even tho they sold less thanks to their fantastic libraries. XBO has one of the most vapid and mediocre libraries I have seen on a console since N64. Outside of first party what is there you can't get better somehwere else? (and XBO's first party wasn't even half as good as N64's even).

PS5 won't hit PS4's numbers. Xbox is in a better position. Nintendo is on it's way to have the 1st or 2nd best selling system of all time. So the other 2 are healthy. PS5 doesn't have a lot of third party games that are gen 9 only yet and their big hitter this year is just a remake of a remaster? lol

Last edited by Leynos - on 12 August 2022

Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Slownenberg said:

Well Sony stated at the end of last year or beginning of this year, when PS4 sales were 116 and change, that they were only going to produce 1 million more, so for anyone who remembers that announcement we already knew 117.xx was going to be the final number.

I think Sony cut PS4 off so drastically because of supply issues. What systems they could manufacture they wanted to make sure they got out as many PS5's as possible.

As for the Xbox + PS numbers this gen, I think we'll see it get back to around that PS2+Xbox number of 183 million, perhaps even a bit above it. I don't think the slow decline of that market will continue this gen, as both companies have decent offerings. Xbox is strong this gen relative to last gen and PS is fairly strong as always and I think PS5 will pass 100 million but I don't see it doing 117 million. I could see 100-105 million for PS5 and 75-80 million for Xbox. I think they'll try to stretch out this gen as much as possible and have mid-gen upgrades like last gen.

Passing Wii and PS1 I think would be a great goal for PS5.

I agree with you.

Only for PS4 they announced the 1M at the end of 2021 if I am not wrong and PS4 was at 116.8M at this point so it should have sold till 117.8 not 117M..



ironmanDX said:
Kakadu18 said:

Collapsed way faster than anyone expected beforehand.

Which is even crazier considering the shortages for the new systems...

The 2 things are correlated though, there have been almost no PS4's in production since 2021 and think it probably is partially due to limited production resources 



VideoGameAccountant said:

Seems like that might haver been temporary as Sony expects profits to be down and software sales are way down for a system that already wasn't seeing great software sales

https://www.theverge.com/2022/7/29/23283410/sony-playstation-game-sales-down-q1-2022

Its more likely that trend will decrease, not increase. COVID gave a temporary boost to the industry but that's waning and its likely going in the other direction due to high inflation and possible recession on the horizon (or worse, stagflation). 

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Demand was much greater due to Covid. Not sure if it is still that much greater than PS4/XBO at the same time period after launch.

Also, this could just mean that the systems are more front-loaded. Having a big start doesn't have to mean it will last for a long while, just look at the Wii.

As for the PC part, I think that's the reason why Playstation plus Xbox totals have been constantly dropping each generation, but I don't think the PC will cut the legs of this gen short.

It's fair to take COVID into account but sales to date would have probably been even higher without COVID because shortages would have been less. The extent of the pandemic impact (negative and positive) and the actual demand for either console are impossible to know. But most indicators point toward a significantly stronger generation start despite the lack of true exclusives and the increased PC support.

PS360 was an unusually long generation that also partly appealed to a temporary demographic via Kinect (which sustained X360 sales in later years). PS4 and Xbox One's sales weren't inflated by longer lifespans or Kinect, not to mention last generation was hampered by Xbox ONE, arguably Microsoft's worst console. They were however inflated by mid-gen upgrades. I think "traditional gaming" as a whole is seeing a huge growth, but this growth is mostly felt if PC is part of the equation. Modern PC is essentially a customizable console and appeals to a large part of the traditional console crowd. A scenario where all consoles + PC grow in sales combined AND individually isn't impossible.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 12 August 2022

Such underestimating of the PS5 here, but we shall see in time.
The situation of the world has completely warped the optics here, so it's kind of pointless to announce winners and losers at this point. Everything has been affected, from when to cut off PS4, to how much PS5s are out there, to what games will be cross-gen and what not because of the stunted rate of moving to PS5. Everything is out of whack right now.