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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sony no longer reporting PS4 shipments, Final Official total 117.00m

 

Will PS5 outsell PS4

Yes 23 23.71%
 
No 74 76.29%
 
Total:97

Your welcome

The reason I remember this is pretty petty, as I quoted the chartz numbers from the platform totals page of a famistu chart like a year ago to compare to the switch and someone told me I got several of them wrong so I did research to justify my position. I was wrong, but I remember I felt as if it was a mistake many people could've made.



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trunkswd said:
badskywalker said:

Your welcome

The reason I remember this is pretty petty, as I quoted the chartz numbers from the platform totals page of a famistu chart like a year ago to compare to the switch and someone told me I got several of them wrong so I did research to justify my position. I was wrong, but I remember I felt as if it was a mistake many people could've made.

What I always found interesting is how Media Create and Famitsu always had different figures. Goes to show no tracking firm will be 100% spot on unless they get data from 100% of the market. NPD analyst I remember saying they get data from 97% of the US market. 

I do wish more data was available, but I do the best I can with a limited amount of data. 

When I get more data, old or new, I'll adjust our estimates to be more accurate. There was a big CESA report that provided a lot of data from 2010-2020 for a lot of countries released earlier this year. I spent a ton of hours adjusting our estimates to match that data. 

I am curious in this report, do you mind attaching a link to it?



trunkswd said:
badskywalker said:

I am curious in this report, do you mind attaching a link to it?

Here is the link to the report: https://www.installbaseforum.com/forums/threads/hardware-and-software-sales-2020-in-10-countries.760/

Wow that is a treasure trove. I am going to have to take a look for a few days lol.



Well, the PS4 ended up really close to the Game Boy/Game Boy Color, but no cigar.

The PS5 will probably finish years from now with about 104-111 million. The PS5 is in high demand but is facing stiffer direct competition from Microsoft and stiffer indirect competition from Nintendo.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

JWeinCom said:

I remember arguing with people who thought the PS4 was going to have PS2 like legs and eventually outsell the PS2. Obviously was never going to happen. The price was never going to get to where it needed to be, it didn't have anywhere near the same market dominance, didn't have emerging markets to break into, and I honestly don't think it was in Sony's best interest to keep pushing it, even ignoring things like the chip shortage.

But 100+ million units is nothing to sneeze at.

Yeah beating the PS2 was never gonna happen.

The PS2 had a perfect storm of conditions in its favour, from very weak competition, to being a cheap DVD player at a time when DVD was exploding, to getting down to insanely low prices, to breaking into emerging markets later in its life, to its successor launching at a prohibitive price point and taking years to really take off, to a whopping 13 year lifespan.



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Well, Sony have 4 of the top 10 best selling consoles, they must be extremely happy with PS4 anyway you slice or dice it. Covid killed the PS4 tail.



loy310 said:

Well, Sony have 4 of the top 10 best selling consoles, they must be extremely happy with PS4 anyway you slice or dice it. Covid killed the PS4 tail.

While also killing the PS5's acceleration. It's been stuck in 4th gear and redlining since launch, now with GT7 to boot.

Also, PS4 officially ends on the Master Chief's number? Hmm.



Even if it weren't for the chip crunch, I don't think PS4 would have had an amazing tail; Sony have prioritized profit over unit sales for a while now, so like the PS3 it probably never would have gotten down to the kind of prices that the PS2 did, and if there wasn't a chip shortage it would've meant PS5 would've taken off more rapidly, further diverting sales away from the ageing PS4.



"Sony never gave final PS2 numbers as it was discontinued many months after that 155m total and for a while they combined PS2 and PS3 sales. "

While true, Sony also changed how it reports sales. Manufacturing may very well have been ended before the shipments end. After all, instead of shipped to retail, that Sony used prior to PS3, it changed it's reporting to shipped to warehouse to inflate PS3 sales numbers, making their shipment figures effectively being the number of manufactured consoles, whereas discontinuing means the time when they stop shipping their manufactured stock from their warehouse.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

padib said:

Keep in mind that Nintendo has sealed its grip over Japan

I second this. Granted, Sony sales in Japan was plummeting before Nintendomination and Portable gaming is bigger than stationary gaming in Japan, PSP outsold PS3 but 2:1 in Japan and even PSvita with its very week library and support sold more than 5.5 million copies. No "pure" stationary home console has sold more than 20 million copies in Japan besides PS1 and PS2, so PS4 being the market leader in Japan was always out of question. Wii sold a bit less than 13 million, PS3 a bit over 10 million, and even SNES sold less than 18 million, so PS4 sales no matter with competing with Nintendo or not, was likely never surpass the 15 million roof. This was, of course, before Nintendo obliterated Sony

Many of Switch best selling software in Japan seems very correlated with handheld gaming also (Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Monster Hunter), the exceptions that come to mind are Smash, Splatoon 2 and Ring Fit but well, those are very OBVIOUS exceptions meaning stationary console players are much alive among Switch userbase which takes away more and more market from PS5

I don't see PS5 surpassing 7 million in Japan with its current pitful software sales. Competition with Xbox in America is likely to reduce PS5 sales in America too, even if not by a huge margin, I can say it going past 33 million but no more than this. With less than 40 million combined Japan+America, the question is if it can sell more than 77 million in Europe+ROTW (PS2 numbers are 82).

So yeah, I believe PS5 will finish its run with just over 100 units. Make no mistake, it's a huge number still but behind PS4