padib said:
Keep in mind that Nintendo has sealed its grip over Japan |
I second this. Granted, Sony sales in Japan was plummeting before Nintendomination and Portable gaming is bigger than stationary gaming in Japan, PSP outsold PS3 but 2:1 in Japan and even PSvita with its very week library and support sold more than 5.5 million copies. No "pure" stationary home console has sold more than 20 million copies in Japan besides PS1 and PS2, so PS4 being the market leader in Japan was always out of question. Wii sold a bit less than 13 million, PS3 a bit over 10 million, and even SNES sold less than 18 million, so PS4 sales no matter with competing with Nintendo or not, was likely never surpass the 15 million roof. This was, of course, before Nintendo obliterated Sony
Many of Switch best selling software in Japan seems very correlated with handheld gaming also (Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Monster Hunter), the exceptions that come to mind are Smash, Splatoon 2 and Ring Fit but well, those are very OBVIOUS exceptions meaning stationary console players are much alive among Switch userbase which takes away more and more market from PS5
I don't see PS5 surpassing 7 million in Japan with its current pitful software sales. Competition with Xbox in America is likely to reduce PS5 sales in America too, even if not by a huge margin, I can say it going past 33 million but no more than this. With less than 40 million combined Japan+America, the question is if it can sell more than 77 million in Europe+ROTW (PS2 numbers are 82).
So yeah, I believe PS5 will finish its run with just over 100 units. Make no mistake, it's a huge number still but behind PS4