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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sony no longer reporting PS4 shipments, Final Official total 117.00m

 

Will PS5 outsell PS4

Yes 23 23.71%
 
No 74 76.29%
 
Total:97
IcaroRibeiro said:
padib said:

Keep in mind that Nintendo has sealed its grip over Japan

I second this. Granted, Sony sales in Japan was plummeting before Nintendomination and Portable gaming is bigger than stationary gaming in Japan, PSP outsold PS3 but 2:1 in Japan and even PSvita with its very week library and support sold more than 5.5 million copies. No "pure" stationary home console has sold more than 20 million copies in Japan besides PS1 and PS2, so PS4 being the market leader in Japan was always out of question. Wii sold a bit less than 13 million, PS3 a bit over 10 million, and even SNES sold less than 18 million, so PS4 sales no matter with competing with Nintendo or not, was likely never surpass the 15 million roof. This was, of course, before Nintendo obliterated Sony

Many of Switch best selling software in Japan seems very correlated with handheld gaming also (Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Monster Hunter), the exceptions that come to mind are Smash, Splatoon 2 and Ring Fit but well, those are very OBVIOUS exceptions meaning stationary console players are much alive among Switch userbase which takes away more and more market from PS5

I don't see PS5 surpassing 7 million in Japan with its current pitful software sales. Competition with Xbox in America is likely to reduce PS5 sales in America too, even if not by a huge margin, I can say it going past 33 million but no more than this. With less than 40 million combined Japan+America, the question is if it can sell more than 77 million in Europe+ROTW (PS2 numbers are 82).

So yeah, I believe PS5 will finish its run with just over 100 units. Make no mistake, it's a huge number still but behind PS4

Mario Kart? The second best-selling Mario Kart was on Wii. 

Momotaro it´s a console game with a coop option. Mario Party was a coop machine too. Fishing games have the same aspect ( but a switch is a portable machine? Hybrid nature, the portable use seems different than a portable only console). Couch coop was a strong feature in sales of Nintendo Switch.  

The portable rhetoric it´s not sustainable when more than  1/2 of the games don´t work best in a portable solution.  A portable approach fails Sony too (Psvita x 3ds). Sony doesn´t treat portable consumers likewise stationary consumers, this is a problem for sales.  Sony believes only appears on the market and will win, and the data say otherwise.

The portable rhetoric was not accurate when the Switch Lite it´s not the main driver of sales. Sony loses japan market to Nintendo because sony doesn´t understand the Japanese market without 3rd party massive support.  When sony deviates the support into portable and stationary the downfall begins. The most powerful force of Sony in videogames was its massive library when lost what remains? 



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Why does Nintendo taking over effect Sony and Playstation sales but when someone mentions the new consoles effecting the switch, they're "not in direct competition?"


I generally agree with the statement they aren't in direct competition but also can't help see that narrative goes against it.



Agente42 said:

Mario Kart? The second best-selling Mario Kart was on Wii. 

And the best selling was a DS game. With 3DS Mario Kart 7 also easily outselling original Mario Kart 8 on Wii U. Mario Kart is very strong on portable platforms

The rest of your rant is all over the place and has nothing to do with my actual point. Of course Switch has both portable and stationary crowd, that was what I was literally addressing with my post. Sony used to have some space in stationary console space during PS4 days, but not anymore and Switch also got this piece of market share. 

Seems like you just can't control yourself when seeing an opportunity to jab Sony poor state in Japan, I wonder if that's why I never see you in Global sales thread, there aren't many negative things to comment on there. 



ironmanDX said:

Why does Nintendo taking over effect Sony and Playstation sales but when someone mentions the new consoles effecting the switch, they're "not in direct competition?"


I generally agree with the statement they aren't in direct competition but also can't help see that narrative goes against it.

They aren't in direct competition in the sense both are disputing the same pool of customers and making them choose between one system or other likewise Xbox does

But Switch strong presence in Japan is making games that used to be exclusive from Sony to be released on Switch. As JP developers, besides the real big ones, don't take much advantage of hardware and Japanese people don't seem really interested in better graphics PS5 offers little value over Switch: It's a more expensive system that offers mostly the same games without Nintendo exclusives

So they can stick to having only one console when in past they could have purchased both Sony and Nintendo



IcaroRibeiro said:
ironmanDX said:

Why does Nintendo taking over effect Sony and Playstation sales but when someone mentions the new consoles effecting the switch, they're "not in direct competition?"


I generally agree with the statement they aren't in direct competition but also can't help see that narrative goes against it.

So they can stick to having only one console when in past they could have purchased both Sony and Nintendo

That sounds like direct competition.

I'm starting to think Japan is the exception to that rule tbh. 



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ironmanDX said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

So they can stick to having only one console when in past they could have purchased both Sony and Nintendo

That sounds like direct competition.

I'm starting to think Japan is the exception to that rule tbh. 

Well, yes you're right. They are direct competition right now, but they weren't as most of the software in one system used to not be on other



I still think most people are underestimating the PS5.

Hype and FOMO for it are through the roof, and it has yet to really get many system selling exclusives. In time though it will, and the supply issues currently crippling it will alleviate.

A lot is being made of it having stronger competition than the PS4, but Switch occupies a very different niche, and while Xbox Series is doing better than the Xbone, PS5 only has to compete against one alternative home console instead of two with the PS4. 

It will pass 100 million with ease, and I would not be surprised if it outsells the PS4.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 22 August 2022

padib said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I'm sure many of them have had a look at the statistics and see that the chances that the PS5 outselling the PS4 would break some established trends.

Playstation + Xbox sales taken together have always amounted to ~175M each gen:

  1. PS2+Xbox: 183M
  2. PS3+360: 173M
  3. PS4+XBO: 168M

Meaning if the Xbox is stronger, then the Playstation sells less as a result. Since the XS is selling much better than it's direct predecessor, unless this gen breaks with the model it established the 3 previous generations, PS5 should sell less than the PS4 did.

That being said, there are some unknowns that could alter this a bit: How long this generation will be can have an effect for instance, if there will be some mid-gen upgrades like the PS4 Pro last gen, and so on. So far, noting shows that this gen will deviate from the previous generations, but time will tell if this will stay the same.

Another thing to note is that the Playstation + Xbox total has been dropping a bit each generation. This trend will have to be reversed for there to be any chance for the PS5 to outsell the PS4 since the XS will almost certainly outsell the XBO.

Keep in mind that Nintendo has sealed its grip over Japan. If the PS5 manages to sell 40M in the US (unlikely), this would lead to between 8 and 9M in Japan for PS5.

So Nintendo is also to blame for Sony's reduced lead. If the PS4 was to finish at ~125M, it needed to be leader in Japan (116.98M + 10M).
PS1JP, PS2JP: ~20M
PS3JP, PS4JP:~10M

So you're saying that Sony's drop in Japan is due to Nintendo?

I think the reason is more that Sony more and more  emphasized the western markets and seemed to care less and less about the tastes of Japanese players. As such, the reason that Sony dropped in Japan is Sony itself, the only input Nintendo had was that they stayed on their course while Sony deviated from it.



curl-6 said:

I still think most people are underestimating the PS5.

Hype and FOMO for it are through the roof, and it has yet to really get many system selling exclusives. In time though it will, and the supply issues currently crippling it will alleviate.

A lot is being made of it having stronger competition than the PS4, but Switch occupies a very different niche, and while Xbox Series is doing better than the Xbone, PS5 only has to compete against one alternative home console instead of two with the PS4. 

It will pass 100 million with ease, and I would not be surprised if it outsells the PS4.

Since the Wii Playstation really only competes with Xbox anymore. This includes the PS4, as such the PS5 has more competition than the PS4, not less.



curl-6 said:

I still think most people are underestimating the PS5.

Hype and FOMO for it are through the roof, and it has yet to really get many system selling exclusives. In time though it will, and the supply issues currently crippling it will alleviate.

A lot is being made of it having stronger competition than the PS4, but Switch occupies a very different niche, and while Xbox Series is doing better than the Xbone, PS5 only has to compete against one alternative home console instead of two with the PS4. 

It will pass 100 million with ease, and I would not be surprised if it outsells the PS4.

I think most people are overestimating the PS5.

Some gamers are not going to be able to go back to a home only console after playing a hybrid for several years.  Others are not going to go back to purchasing games after they've tried a Gamepass subscription.  Another chunk is simply going to XBox, because of recent acquisitions.

PS5 sales are front loaded.  The current demand is from hardcore PS4 owners, who do not fit into any of the groups I mentioned in the previous paragraph.  Once they have their PS5's, demand for it will dry up pretty quickly.