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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sony no longer reporting PS4 shipments, Final Official total 117.00m

 

Will PS5 outsell PS4

Yes 23 23.71%
 
No 74 76.29%
 
Total:97
Norion on 22 August 2022
The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

I still think most people are underestimating the PS5.

Hype and FOMO for it are through the roof, and it has yet to really get many system selling exclusives. In time though it will, and the supply issues currently crippling it will alleviate.

A lot is being made of it having stronger competition than the PS4, but Switch occupies a very different niche, and while Xbox Series is doing better than the Xbone, PS5 only has to compete against one alternative home console instead of two with the PS4. 

It will pass 100 million with ease, and I would not be surprised if it outsells the PS4.

I think most people are overestimating the PS5.

Some gamers are not going to be able to go back to a home only console after playing a hybrid for several years.  Others are not going to go back to purchasing games after they've tried a Gamepass subscription.  Another chunk is simply going to XBox, because of recent acquisitions.

PS5 sales are front loaded.  The current demand is from hardcore PS4 owners, who do not fit into any of the groups I mentioned in the previous paragraph.  Once they have their PS5's, demand for it will dry up pretty quickly.

When do you think that'll happen?



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curl-6 on 22 August 2022
The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

I still think most people are underestimating the PS5.

Hype and FOMO for it are through the roof, and it has yet to really get many system selling exclusives. In time though it will, and the supply issues currently crippling it will alleviate.

A lot is being made of it having stronger competition than the PS4, but Switch occupies a very different niche, and while Xbox Series is doing better than the Xbone, PS5 only has to compete against one alternative home console instead of two with the PS4. 

It will pass 100 million with ease, and I would not be surprised if it outsells the PS4.

I think most people are overestimating the PS5.

Some gamers are not going to be able to go back to a home only console after playing a hybrid for several years.  Others are not going to go back to purchasing games after they've tried a Gamepass subscription.  Another chunk is simply going to XBox, because of recent acquisitions.

PS5 sales are front loaded.  The current demand is from hardcore PS4 owners, who do not fit into any of the groups I mentioned in the previous paragraph.  Once they have their PS5's, demand for it will dry up pretty quickly.

I mean, we're obviously not seeing eye to eye on this given our bet where you don't think PS5 and Xbox Series combined can hit 56 million by 2024 or 130 million lifetime.

But really, PS5 front loaded? When it's entire life so far has been severely supply constained and it has yet to get meaningful exclusives? That just doesn't make sense.

Sales trends since 2017 have shown that Switch does not directly compete with the dedicated home consoles, and Microsoft's acquisitions are not going to turn the tide because the vast majority of games will still come to PS5, they'd simply be leaving too much money on the table not to. Gamepass is not as big a factor as fans make out either, if it was the Series S would be sold out worldwide.



IcaroRibeiro on 22 August 2022
Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I think most people are overestimating the PS5.

Some gamers are not going to be able to go back to a home only console after playing a hybrid for several years.  Others are not going to go back to purchasing games after they've tried a Gamepass subscription.  Another chunk is simply going to XBox, because of recent acquisitions.

PS5 sales are front loaded.  The current demand is from hardcore PS4 owners, who do not fit into any of the groups I mentioned in the previous paragraph.  Once they have their PS5's, demand for it will dry up pretty quickly.

When do you think that'll happen?

Every quarter 

Laser is a cliff theorist. Means every month he will predict the PS5 collapse is just around the corner



Bofferbrauer2 on 23 August 2022
padib said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

So you're saying that Sony's drop in Japan is due to Nintendo?

I think the reason is more that Sony more and more  emphasized the western markets and seemed to care less and less about the tastes of Japanese players. As such, the reason that Sony dropped in Japan is Sony itself, the only input Nintendo had was that they stayed on their course while Sony deviated from it.

Impossible. Nintendo made significant plays to get Sony out of the market:

  • Defeat the PSP and the Vita, causing Sony to exit for lack of profitability in the portable market:
    • Releasing top-notch portable software during all portable gens (GB, GBA, DS, 3DS, Switch hybrid)
      • Main IPs 
        • Pokemon
        • Zelda (fresh entries)
        • Mario Bros remakes, DX (including NSMB)
        • Mario Kart
        • Smash bros
        • Mario Maker
        • Luigi's mansion
        • Fire Emblem
        • Mario Party
        • Warioware
      • Blue Ocean IPs:
        • Brain Age, Big Brain
        • Picross
        • Art Academy
    • Securing important portable Japan-centric IPs such as Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest by clinching vital strategic deals
  • Non-reliance on 3rd party developers (Sony always depended on 3rd parties to make their platforms popular).
  • Focus on affordability instead of high-end graphics (which are a poor edge in the portable market)
  • Focus on variety of inputs (DS, Switch) kept the products fresh.

Had Nintendo done nothing, Sony would be dominating Japan right now even if Sony focused on Western IPs. So Nintendo beat Sony out of Japan and their work, effort and strategy is obvious. Sony gave up during Vita after having been beaten by Nintendo.

  • Bolded: Series that existed before the Wii/DS. Those can't be the reason, otherwise Nintendo would have been beating Playstation before already.
  • Italic: Series that are not catering to Japanese audiences in particular. The vast majority of those title's sales are overseas.
  • Blue Ocean IPs: Cater for a new demographic, but not just in Japan. The vast majority of those gamers are on smartphones now.
  • Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter were both on Nintendo before. Playstation got their support because their platform was popular and selling well, not the other way around - though having those certainly helped the sales.
  • Affordability: This is again one point where Sony is chasing the international market with high-end graphics, something Nintendo can't afford to do (Sony and Microsoft can cross-finance selling hardware at a loss, Nintendo doesn't. Sega tried and it killed them). So again, this is on Sony for chasing another market.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Kakadu18 on 23 August 2022

I think the PS5 and XBS will sell between 170 and 185mil combined lifetime.



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Norion on 23 August 2022
IcaroRibeiro said:
Norion said:

When do you think that'll happen?

Every quarter 

Laser is a cliff theorist. Means every month he will predict the PS5 collapse is just around the corner

I really wonder if he'll keep it going into 2023.



Norion on 23 August 2022
Kyuu said:
Norion said:

I really wonder if he'll keep it going into 2023.

More like 2025 and it won't just be him either. Take a quick look at this thread:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/229249/predict-when-will-ps4-outsell-wii/1

1. Like 80%~ of vocal non-Playstation guys said it won't or likely won't.
2. Some 90% of vocal Playstation gamers thought it will (one of the safest predictions ever).

Biases overshadow all else regardless of the topic. Unfortunately, people subconsciously or otherwise pick up on what aligns with their wishes or narratives and throw away the rest. What made these "never" predictions especially funny is that most of us accounted for a permanent $50-$100 pricedrop being around the corner. In hindsight, if PS4 did get such pricedrop in 2018 or 2019, and production wasn't an issue, passing 130 million would have been a breeze.

I'm bringing this thread up because this may very well be how this generation will play out. Namely, people promising you a cliff would appear in 2022... I mean 2023... I mean 2024... I mean 2025. Switch was also massively (and clearly) underestimated, but that had less to do with bias and more with the lack of faith in Nintendo following the weak performance of Wii U + 3DS as well as a number of unknown factors like whether or not Nintendo was going to retain their two console line model. But even as a Playstation guy myself, I correctly predicted this (and bookmarked it lol):

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8706024

I challenged Quickrick! The very embodiment of cliff.


We all made embarrassing predictions and it's fine, but for a lot of people, they don't even try to be reasonable. I will admit that this generation is very difficult to predict and that weaker legs do sort of make more sense in light of the growing PC appeal. Not saying it will happen but it's a whole lot harder to predict than the last generation which was more traditional and super predictable to me.

Like with the Switch such a prediction for the PS5 should become too nonsensical to be even entertained when it becomes 2.5-3 years old but that won't stop some people from making them. I'm still thinking the PS5 will do close to what the PS1 did though you're right that there is still a relatively high amount of uncertainty with its sales potential in the next few years not being easy to guess though thankfully 2023 should shed a lot of light on that.



curl-6 on 23 August 2022
Kyuu said:

More like 2025 and it won't just be him either. Take a quick look at this thread:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/229249/predict-when-will-ps4-outsell-wii/1

1. Like 80%~ of vocal non-Playstation guys said it won't or likely won't.
2. Some 90% of vocal Playstation gamers thought it will (one of the safest predictions ever).

Biases overshadow all else regardless of the topic. Unfortunately, people subconsciously or otherwise pick up on what aligns with their wishes or narratives and throw away the rest. What made these "never" predictions especially funny is that most of us accounted for a permanent $50-$100 pricedrop being around the corner. In hindsight, if PS4 did get such pricedrop in 2018 or 2019, and production wasn't an issue, passing 130 million would have been a breeze.

I'm bringing this thread up because this may very well be how this generation will play out. Namely, people promising you a cliff would appear in 2022... I mean 2023... I mean 2024... I mean 2025. Switch was also massively (and clearly) underestimated, but that had less to do with bias and more with the lack of faith in Nintendo following the weak performance of Wii U + 3DS as well as a number of unknown factors like whether or not Nintendo was going to retain their two console line model. But even as a Playstation guy myself, I correctly predicted this (and bookmarked it lol):

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8706024

I challenged Quickrick! The very embodiment of cliff.


We all made embarrassing predictions and it's fine, but for a lot of people, they don't even try to be reasonable. I will admit that this generation is very difficult to predict and that weaker legs do sort of make more sense in light of the growing PC appeal. Not saying it will happen but it's a whole lot harder to predict than the last generation which was more traditional and super predictable to me.

I would argue that while low predictions prior to and shortly after Switch's launch had a lot to do with factors like the poor performance of the Wii U, the absurd underestimations of it that continued for years passed the point of it proving its mettle had just as much to do with bias as a lot of the current lowballs of the PS5, if not more so since the mods have long since banned a lot of the more problematic users that abounded a few years back. (And the forums are just less active in general now than they used to be)

Liquid Laser may be the Quickrick of the PS5, but I don't see too many others wishfully downplaying it, while in the early months/years of the Switch there were several folks openly rooting for it to fail and constantly proclaiming its imminent collapse.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 23 August 2022

curl-6 on 24 August 2022
Kyuu said:
curl-6 said:

I would argue that while low predictions prior to and shortly after Switch's launch had a lot to do with factors like the poor performance of the Wii U, the absurd underestimations of it that continued for years passed the point of it proving its mettle had just as much to do with bias as a lot of the current lowballs of the PS5, if not more so since the mods have long since banned a lot of the more problematic users that abounded a few years back. (And the forums are just less active in general now than they used to be)

Liquid Laser may be the Quickrick of the PS5, but I don't see too many others wishfully downplaying it, while in the early months/years of the Switch there were several folks openly rooting for it to fail and constantly proclaiming its imminent collapse.

PS5 underestimation is comparable to Switch's in that both of them had/have unknown factors, complications, and "if scenarios" making them quite unpredictable for better or worse. Even 2 years after launch, a large part of Nintendo's own fanbase thought it could be a challenge for the Switch to reach a 100 million lifetime (Wii U residuals lol), let alone pass PS4 numbers (I for one didn't rule out Nintendo continuing their two-console-lines model which would have hurt Switch's potential). Quickrick and a few others stood out for a reason; he made ridiculous predictions even by Nintendo-hater standards.

PS4's underestimation in 2017/early 2018 ("won't outsell the Wii") was too common among non-PS crowd, and had no logical basis whatsoever, so it did stand out to me as a rather strange behavior/trend. It is no coincidence that PS fans were certain (and correct) PS4 would outsell the Wii while others didn't see it happen, and some even ridiculing it. People now often talk about the so called predictability of the last generation as if they never made those predictions or nodded to them.

PS5 and Switch getting underestimated (within reason) is understandable for a good number of reasons. PS4's underestimation was not. It's just that I'm not sure how much of this PS5 underestimation is the result of honest research and foresight, and how much of it is primarily out of subconscious bias and wishful thinking (Some people declared this generation much closer as soon as they learned PS5 "only had 10 TFLOPS" of power. Before Series X was even revealed. Before they knew anything about acquisitions, or COVID shortages, or Sony supporting PC to such an extent. It was a little weird then; no longer weird because of sheer luck and developments no one could predict).


Of course the same can be said about Playstation fans underestimating the Switch, but their predictions were generally in line with the common opinion, so it's a tad harder to blame it mostly on bias (just as it is harder to blame PS5 underestimation on bias). Before the Wii U launch, PS fans thought it'll take the world by storm, which also blended with the general opinion that thought Nintendo wasn't capable of making unsuccessful consoles anymore because "LOOK HOW MUCH THE WII AND DS SOLD!".

I should've clarified I was comparing the downplaying of PS5 and Switch, not PS4, my bad.

While it may not have been obvious it would pass 100 million or outsell the PS4, by the end of 2017 it was obvious the Switch was a success, yet there were still plenty of takes in 2018-2019 about how it would be extremely frontloaded and end up with low/mediocre lifetime sales, which were the result of bias more so than any reasonable doubts.

Again though, a lot of it does come down to the fact that many bad faith posters have been banned since then on both sides, and that there's simply fewer people posting now than then.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 24 August 2022

The_Liquid_Laser on 24 August 2022
Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I think most people are overestimating the PS5.

Some gamers are not going to be able to go back to a home only console after playing a hybrid for several years.  Others are not going to go back to purchasing games after they've tried a Gamepass subscription.  Another chunk is simply going to XBox, because of recent acquisitions.

PS5 sales are front loaded.  The current demand is from hardcore PS4 owners, who do not fit into any of the groups I mentioned in the previous paragraph.  Once they have their PS5's, demand for it will dry up pretty quickly.

When do you think that'll happen?

I expect this to be the peak year for PS5 hardware sales.

curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I think most people are overestimating the PS5.

Some gamers are not going to be able to go back to a home only console after playing a hybrid for several years.  Others are not going to go back to purchasing games after they've tried a Gamepass subscription.  Another chunk is simply going to XBox, because of recent acquisitions.

PS5 sales are front loaded.  The current demand is from hardcore PS4 owners, who do not fit into any of the groups I mentioned in the previous paragraph.  Once they have their PS5's, demand for it will dry up pretty quickly.

I mean, we're obviously not seeing eye to eye on this given our bet where you don't think PS5 and Xbox Series combined can hit 56 million by 2024 or 130 million lifetime.

But really, PS5 front loaded? When it's entire life so far has been severely supply constained and it has yet to get meaningful exclusives? That just doesn't make sense.

Sales trends since 2017 have shown that Switch does not directly compete with the dedicated home consoles, and Microsoft's acquisitions are not going to turn the tide because the vast majority of games will still come to PS5, they'd simply be leaving too much money on the table not to. Gamepass is not as big a factor as fans make out either, if it was the Series S would be sold out worldwide.

I believe the data shows the exact opposite.  In fact, outside of Nintendo's and Sony's quarterly reports, the only region where we get actual hard numbers is Japan.  In Japan, it is quite clear that the PS5 has pathetic software sales.  People in Japan have almost no interest at all in buying PS5 games.  That is what the hard data tells us.  The reason for this, is because all of the best selling games in Japan (3m+) are on the Switch.  PS5's best selling game can barely crack 100k physical.  Switch does in fact compete with PS5.

IcaroRibeiro said:
Norion said:

When do you think that'll happen?

Every quarter 

Laser is a cliff theorist. Means every month he will predict the PS5 collapse is just around the corner

I'll keep predicting until the end of 2023.  If I'm wrong I'll stop when PS5 and XBS reach 56m combined.  On the other hand, what if I'm right?  Will you apologize?  I'm offended that you are calling me a cliff theorist. My prediction doesn't come from nowhere.

I made a bet with curl-6 long before anyone else even cared about PS5 sales.  People think I'm saying this stuff because of bias, but I didn't single out PS5 until after the Gen 9 consoles were revealed.  My actual theory is that Switch is competing with the other two consoles.  Curl-6 says that they aren't.  That is what my bet with curl-6 is about.  By the end of 2023 we'll know who is right.

Norion said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

Every quarter 

Laser is a cliff theorist. Means every month he will predict the PS5 collapse is just around the corner

I really wonder if he'll keep it going into 2023.

I'll keep going until the end of 2023 or PS5+XBS = 56m (by VGChartz numbers), whichever comes first.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
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