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Norion on 23 August 2022
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Kyuu said:
Norion said:

I really wonder if he'll keep it going into 2023.

More like 2025 and it won't just be him either. Take a quick look at this thread:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/229249/predict-when-will-ps4-outsell-wii/1

1. Like 80%~ of vocal non-Playstation guys said it won't or likely won't.
2. Some 90% of vocal Playstation gamers thought it will (one of the safest predictions ever).

Biases overshadow all else regardless of the topic. Unfortunately, people subconsciously or otherwise pick up on what aligns with their wishes or narratives and throw away the rest. What made these "never" predictions especially funny is that most of us accounted for a permanent $50-$100 pricedrop being around the corner. In hindsight, if PS4 did get such pricedrop in 2018 or 2019, and production wasn't an issue, passing 130 million would have been a breeze.

I'm bringing this thread up because this may very well be how this generation will play out. Namely, people promising you a cliff would appear in 2022... I mean 2023... I mean 2024... I mean 2025. Switch was also massively (and clearly) underestimated, but that had less to do with bias and more with the lack of faith in Nintendo following the weak performance of Wii U + 3DS as well as a number of unknown factors like whether or not Nintendo was going to retain their two console line model. But even as a Playstation guy myself, I correctly predicted this (and bookmarked it lol):

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8706024

I challenged Quickrick! The very embodiment of cliff.


We all made embarrassing predictions and it's fine, but for a lot of people, they don't even try to be reasonable. I will admit that this generation is very difficult to predict and that weaker legs do sort of make more sense in light of the growing PC appeal. Not saying it will happen but it's a whole lot harder to predict than the last generation which was more traditional and super predictable to me.

Like with the Switch such a prediction for the PS5 should become too nonsensical to be even entertained when it becomes 2.5-3 years old but that won't stop some people from making them. I'm still thinking the PS5 will do close to what the PS1 did though you're right that there is still a relatively high amount of uncertainty with its sales potential in the next few years not being easy to guess though thankfully 2023 should shed a lot of light on that.