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curl-6 on 22 August 2022
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

I still think most people are underestimating the PS5.

Hype and FOMO for it are through the roof, and it has yet to really get many system selling exclusives. In time though it will, and the supply issues currently crippling it will alleviate.

A lot is being made of it having stronger competition than the PS4, but Switch occupies a very different niche, and while Xbox Series is doing better than the Xbone, PS5 only has to compete against one alternative home console instead of two with the PS4. 

It will pass 100 million with ease, and I would not be surprised if it outsells the PS4.

I think most people are overestimating the PS5.

Some gamers are not going to be able to go back to a home only console after playing a hybrid for several years.  Others are not going to go back to purchasing games after they've tried a Gamepass subscription.  Another chunk is simply going to XBox, because of recent acquisitions.

PS5 sales are front loaded.  The current demand is from hardcore PS4 owners, who do not fit into any of the groups I mentioned in the previous paragraph.  Once they have their PS5's, demand for it will dry up pretty quickly.

I mean, we're obviously not seeing eye to eye on this given our bet where you don't think PS5 and Xbox Series combined can hit 56 million by 2024 or 130 million lifetime.

But really, PS5 front loaded? When it's entire life so far has been severely supply constained and it has yet to get meaningful exclusives? That just doesn't make sense.

Sales trends since 2017 have shown that Switch does not directly compete with the dedicated home consoles, and Microsoft's acquisitions are not going to turn the tide because the vast majority of games will still come to PS5, they'd simply be leaving too much money on the table not to. Gamepass is not as big a factor as fans make out either, if it was the Series S would be sold out worldwide.