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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sony no longer reporting PS4 shipments, Final Official total 117.00m

 

Will PS5 outsell PS4

Yes 23 23.71%
 
No 74 76.29%
 
Total:97
NyanNyanNekoChan said:

117m seems good, congrats PS4.

This has probably been mentioned already, but I imagine the lack of price cuts due to semiconductor shortages, inflation, covid, etc had an influence on the overall sale figure.
I picked up a PS4 slim 500gb when it was new back in 2016 for £200, bundled with a newly released game, 6 years later, google tells me it's selling for £150 or more and that's without the additional game. So barely any change after almost 6 years.

On another note, I've noticed that the PS5 price has only recently gone back to the default launch price of £449.99, it was either £550/£600 or out of stock a couple of months back. Buying stuff has sucked in recent years.

I haven't found a single PS5 in Japan. While I was vacationing in the US, I found PS5 bundle for $680 which included a forced bundle with Madden.

I was thinking the stock situation had improved lately, but I guess that just means the retailers will just sell it in bundles now instead of MSRP.



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yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

We can see from the numbers we have in 2017, 2018, etc that Switch's rise did not gouge into PS4's sales. The two coexisted rather than directly competing. There's no reason PS5 should be any different. They are totally different products, like family cars and motorbikes or Call of Duty and Mario.

You can't be certain that without Switch in the market PS4 wouldn't reach for example 20M again in 2018 or maybe 16-18M in 2019 instead of 14. So no one can't say for sure if Switch hasn't had impact on PS4 sales. Because we don't know the other scenario if there wasn't switch sales could've been bigger. There's no need for the PS4 to drop significantly in the Switch's first years, so that sales of the switch impact to the PS4 sales or even xbox (at lesser extend of course).

As it is now. PS5 and XBSX may also impact switch, however because they are in not full stock yet the impact is smaller. For example Switch may've reached 26 or 27M last year, or 22-25M this year without PS5 or XBSX on the market.

PS4's sales curve is not indicative of being cannibalized, it would've dropped much faster from 2017 on if Switch was really a direct competitor.



yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

PS4's sales curve is not indicative of being cannibalized, it would've dropped much faster from 2017 on if Switch was really a direct competitor.

You can't be sure. The PS4 sales curve may have been stronger without the switch. It may have reach 22M for example in 2017 and 20M in 2018, and 16-17M in 2019. There is no way to know.

There are very few things in the universe we can know with absolute certainty. We can make educated estimates though, and PS4's sales did not start to dramatically degrade in parallel with the Rise of the Switch, nor was the Switch's growth suppressed by the PS4's dominance at its time of release, so the most likely explanation is that the two didn't directly clash.



yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

There are very few things in the universe we can know with absolute certainty. We can make educated estimates though, and PS4's sales did not start to dramatically degrade in parallel with the Rise of the Switch, nor was the Switch's growth suppressed by the PS4's dominance at its time of release, so the most likely explanation is that the two didn't directly clash.

Of course they didn't directly clash. I am not making such a statement. Just that they impact each other with a few milions of sales - maybe 2-3-4M (or percentage, depends on the yearly sales)

There is no need the one to dramatically degrade, for to there be some impact. Don't look at the sales to have big drop, but the sales could've been higher, for either of them.

I won't say there was no interaction between them at all, just that they didn't directly compete (just indirectly) and the extent to which each took sales from the other was relatively small given their comparative curves.

Liquid Laser's argument was that direct competition from the Switch will cripple PS5 sales, my point was that the PS4/Switch's track record suggests this won't be a problem.



padib said:
curl-6 said:

I won't say there was no interaction between them at all, just that they didn't directly compete (just indirectly) and the extent to which each took sales from the other was relatively small given their comparative curves.

Liquid Laser's argument was that direct competition from the Switch will cripple PS5 sales, my point was that the PS4/Switch's track record suggests this won't be a problem.

In Japan, they directly compete leading to a decrease of almost 10M PS units from 20M down to 10M.

Japan's only one country, and the decline you describe happened ages ago, primarily from the PS2 to the PS3.

PS4 didn't decline that much from the PS3, and even if PS5 declines from PS4, it won't be by enough to have a big impact on its global sales.



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padib said:
curl-6 said:

Japan's only one country, and the decline you describe happened ages ago, primarily from the PS2 to the PS3.

PS4 didn't decline that much from the PS3, and even if PS5 declines from PS4, it won't be by enough to have a big impact on its global sales.

Japan's only one country, all it takes to refute your position. Yes Nintendo has been taking Japan away from PS since the PS3/PSP era, the era it was supposed to lose the market to Sony.

Nintendo most certainly directly competes with Sony, but feel free to have an alternate reality all to you.

It doesn't refute my position at all because I was speaking in a global sense and you're talking about a single country.



padib said:
curl-6 said:

It doesn't refute my position at all because I was speaking in a global sense and you're talking about a single country.

Do you realize that Nintendo is headquartered in Japan and both Sony and Nintendo are japanese companies. Japan is not just some small country, it's where modern console gaming as we know it today is born.

Even if many games do not compete on the respective platforms worldwide, the coexistence of these two manufacturers in an equal space means that many important factors are competing towards the success or lack thereof for each console one against the other. As a small example, the Square Enix purchase by Sony that has been rumoured will be a difficult sell because many SE franchises are cash cows on the switch that are paying for funding of bug IPs for SE such as Kingdom hearts and FF, which are very expensive to make. While these are playing a major role in giving an edge to Sony, Nintendo's dominance in japan will make the buyout more complicated than it would have been had Nintendo lost to Sony in Japan.

An example among many others. A small other example: not everyone in the US has the money to buy multiple consoles so often people will chose between Switch and Playstation. This purchasing decision is mutually exclusive.

Among many other obvious ideas that the consoles compete directly for consumer trust and purchase.

Japan may be historically important for gaming, and for Nintendo, but it's really not that important to Playstation any more, as any sales PS5 loses to Switch compared to PS4 won't be enough to matter much on a worldwide scale.



padib said:
curl-6 said:

Japan may be historically important for gaming, and for Nintendo, but it's really not that important to Playstation any more, as any sales PS5 loses to Switch compared to PS4 won't be enough to matter much on a worldwide scale.

Sure because they already lost it. Had Nintendo not been there, Sony could win it back. That's the reality that your position is hiding. Even if the numbers are equal as previous gen, it's opportunity loss which you're not counting but it's still real. Moreover, Nintendo's success in Japan has an influence on the exclusivity of AAA japanese titles that today cater to the west such as Monster Hunter and even final fantasy. Whether the exclusivity is sealed or not, the hurdles can be more or less difficult to jump depending on Nintendo's japanese and worldwide success.

And don't forget who is making japanese western-centric games like FF and other big japanese games: japanese people, who play Nintendo consoles since PS3/PSP.

They are competing, don't fool yourself.

Global PS4 sales didn't tank when Switch rose to success, and Switch sales haven't degraded since PS5 came out, there is some overlap but if they were directly competing we would see them really eating into each other's numbers.

That's not happening, Switch and PS4 sold well side by side, and there's no indication that will be different with PS5.



padib said:
curl-6 said:

Global PS4 sales didn't tank when Switch rose to success, and Switch sales haven't degraded since PS5 came out, there is some overlap but if they were directly competing we would see them really eating into each other's numbers.

That's not happening, Switch and PS4 sold well side by side, and there's no indication that will be different with PS5.

That's exactly what we are seeing.

Where are you seeing that?



padib said:
Kakadu18 said:

Where are you seeing that?

The PS brand went from 20+M to around 10M due to Nintendo domination in Japan. Due to this dominance, Sony cannot regain this 10M back. This is Nintendo's work. I have shown the numbers and can show more I did the study. What numbers do you want to see?

Oh you were only talking about Japan. Sure then. But outside of Japan that isn't the case regardless of what's happening in Japan. At least there's no data that I'm aware of that supports that.