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curl-6 on 23 August 2022
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Kyuu said:

More like 2025 and it won't just be him either. Take a quick look at this thread:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/229249/predict-when-will-ps4-outsell-wii/1

1. Like 80%~ of vocal non-Playstation guys said it won't or likely won't.
2. Some 90% of vocal Playstation gamers thought it will (one of the safest predictions ever).

Biases overshadow all else regardless of the topic. Unfortunately, people subconsciously or otherwise pick up on what aligns with their wishes or narratives and throw away the rest. What made these "never" predictions especially funny is that most of us accounted for a permanent $50-$100 pricedrop being around the corner. In hindsight, if PS4 did get such pricedrop in 2018 or 2019, and production wasn't an issue, passing 130 million would have been a breeze.

I'm bringing this thread up because this may very well be how this generation will play out. Namely, people promising you a cliff would appear in 2022... I mean 2023... I mean 2024... I mean 2025. Switch was also massively (and clearly) underestimated, but that had less to do with bias and more with the lack of faith in Nintendo following the weak performance of Wii U + 3DS as well as a number of unknown factors like whether or not Nintendo was going to retain their two console line model. But even as a Playstation guy myself, I correctly predicted this (and bookmarked it lol):

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8706024

I challenged Quickrick! The very embodiment of cliff.


We all made embarrassing predictions and it's fine, but for a lot of people, they don't even try to be reasonable. I will admit that this generation is very difficult to predict and that weaker legs do sort of make more sense in light of the growing PC appeal. Not saying it will happen but it's a whole lot harder to predict than the last generation which was more traditional and super predictable to me.

I would argue that while low predictions prior to and shortly after Switch's launch had a lot to do with factors like the poor performance of the Wii U, the absurd underestimations of it that continued for years passed the point of it proving its mettle had just as much to do with bias as a lot of the current lowballs of the PS5, if not more so since the mods have long since banned a lot of the more problematic users that abounded a few years back. (And the forums are just less active in general now than they used to be)

Liquid Laser may be the Quickrick of the PS5, but I don't see too many others wishfully downplaying it, while in the early months/years of the Switch there were several folks openly rooting for it to fail and constantly proclaiming its imminent collapse.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 23 August 2022