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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the Switch successor launch ?

 

When will the Switch successor launch ?

Fall 2022 1 1.47%
 
Spring 2023 4 5.88%
 
Fall 2023 6 8.82%
 
Spring 2024 13 19.12%
 
Fall 2024 24 35.29%
 
Spring 2025 15 22.06%
 
Fall 2025 5 7.35%
 
Total:68

I'm still sticking to holiday ('fall') 2024 for now.



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Spring 2025 makes the most sense to me. I don't think they've gonna cut Switch out of the picture as soon as a lot of people seem to think, but I also don't think they can afford to wait literally any later than that for a successor, so it seems like the sweet spot. Holiday 2024 is possible as well though.



March 2024

But we still have supporters claiming 2027 and beyond or that the current system will receive price cuts, despite inflation and shortages.



March 2023



kazuyamishima said:

March 2024

But we still have supporters claiming 2027 and beyond or that the current system will receive price cuts, despite inflation and shortages.

Huuuh ... Typo or for real ?

I think you're the only one I've ever seen on the whole internet to make such a guess.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

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November 2024 I guess. This year Switch sales are still above PS5/XSX. Next year Switch baseline should be around 200k or slightly below and on par with PS5/XSX. In 2024 Switch baseline should be between 100 - 120k, which is still pretty good for its 7th year. I think there's no need to rush a console release this time.

Nintendo knows that a new console launch is a bit risky, especially as long as the hardware supply is limited. So I think they try to play safe with Switch as long as they can.



Jumpin said:

The odd Breath of the Wild 2 delay to “Spring 2023” is a smoking gun. Zelda, particularly Breath of the Wild, is Nintendo’s flagship franchise. It is the ideal game to launch Switch 2 with. The game has been in development a very long time and is unlikely to have had the same developmental hurdles of Breath of the Wild 1 based on what we know. Even with Corona, it shouldn’t have this extensive a decade cycle. What is the reason? Simply polishing it up isn’t a great reason to miss the holiday season since polish can be applied after launch with updates (like with the first game). A Switch 2 release time would be a reason.

I agree that the delay could be a smoking gun, but not for the reason you think it is. I think it has nothing to do with making BOTW 2 a cross-gen game (like TP and BOTW). I think it's because 2022 is such a packed year for the Switch. There are so many Nintendo titles, a Nintendo holiday title (Pokemon Gen 9), and tons of third-party games. 

I think there's at least a modest chance Nintendo is taking the gamble of delaying BOTW 2 just so that 2022 is slightly less packed and so they have a massive title in the first quarter or at least first half of 2023. 

I found out recently (thanks to a user on here) that Nintendo could've had Super Mario Odyssey ready to go at Switch's launch in March 2017. But they sat on it all the way until late October 2017. I'm glad I didn't know that then, or I would've been salty waiting so long. 

So it's happened at least once where Nintendo had a massive title ready to go and sat on it for about half a year or more. It's very rare, but it's possible. 

I would've said Spring 2023 when the Switch launched (or thought that way even into 2019). But with the supply chain crisis and the home run success of the Switch, I say March 2024. November 2023 is a possibility, but not as likely. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

I feel like there are some very convincing arguments here that sway my mind to thinking 2024 is very possible.

I just can’t get over the fact that just a year or so ago (might’ve been 2 by now, time flies) Nintendo said that the switch was only half way through its life cycle. I really think they’re going to want to milk the switch for as long as they can. The wii to Wii U mistake may have scared them bad enough to not want to rush to a successor coming off of a successful console.

So therefore, I am more likely to believe that BOTW 2 was delayed to spring to coincide with the release of a switch pro rather than the switch 2.

Last edited by Kslost - on 22 May 2022

Uh.....fall 2024.



My guess would be Late 2023/ Early 2024.

Splatoon 3, Breath of the Wild 2 and some other titles will give Switch about another year of success.



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