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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the Switch successor launch ?

 

When will the Switch 2 launch ?

Before September 2024 1 4.17%
 
September - December 2024 4 16.67%
 
January - April 2025 17 70.83%
 
May - December 2025 2 8.33%
 
Total:24
Chrkeller said:

2025. It would have been announced by now if it were 2024.

Yeah. I know Nintendo is in new territory with their only platform for years being a hybrid and what could come next but all of their platforms (I've pulled up Wikipedia pages to verify the ones I was unsure of) were announced (not necessarily named or unveiled) 10 or more months in advance. 3DS was announced in March 2010 (right before the end of the fiscal year) and released in Japan in January 2011 with other regions in later months.

Unless Nintendo is launching Switch 2 in December and about to announce or they'll announce next month with 8-9 months before launch, it's not happening. 

Even a March 2025 release would still make sense for Nintendo to announce the system next month, even if the unveiling is set for June (E3 is finally dead, but it's a great month regardless). 

Nintendo only announced Switch two years in advance (as Codename NX without specifying what hardware it was) because of the failure of Wii U and reassuring investors that their new mobile software would not mean the end of their hardware. 

With no price cuts and Switch sales strong, not announcing prior to 2024 was critical. Because there are plenty of people who don't want to pay $300-$350 for an outgoing system but will drop $400-450 for the new one. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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I believe it will be March 2025, therefore I voted for Jan-April 2025.

This is based on a lot of the reporting lately. Honestly, a March release worked wonders for Switch and I could see the same for Switch 2. 3D Mario in March, Mario Kart in April, Animal Crossing in June, Mario Party in September (40th anniversary of Super Mario Bros., so why not celebrate with a party?), Luigi's Mansion in October and Pokemon in November would all be huge. And then you could have the likes of Kirby, FE, Yoshi and SSB in 2026. Sprinkle in some Zelda remakes as well and then 2D Mario & Splatoon 4 by the end of 2027. First few years of Switch 2 could be bigger than Switch 1 honestly.

Everything I've mentioned for 2025 would definitely be due for new games by then. Looking at Switch 1 top sellers, all of those franchises exceeded (far exceeded in most cases) 10m sales.



I think March 2025. Nintendo will then have a launch impact on both FY2025 and FY2026 with the debut in FY2025 and the first holiday in FY2026.



Tober said:

I think March 2025. Nintendo will then have a launch impact on both FY2025 and FY2026 with the debut in FY2025 and the first holiday in FY2026.

It makes me wonder why over the years, most platforms (regionally usually, as day and date or at least the same quarter are relatively new) don't launch in Q1. A lot of corporations end their fiscal year with Q1. A Q1 launch means interest after a holiday and a ramp up (in hardware availability and games) to the upcoming holiday season (both in separate fiscal years). 

I truly suppose the corporations bank on the US/Western Europe and some other nations buying en masse in November and December regardless of what software is available for a platform.

Nintendo with their Blue Ocean strategy seems more okay with March than Sony or Microsoft. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

I read today that one of the reasons for the internal delay was to build stock, to help avoid scalping. That would be amazing. The ps5 was a shit show for the first 2 years.



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RTX 4090 Ventus 3x E OC

Switch OLED

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I am going for Q4 2025, its still selling quite well and Nintendo knows how important it is to have an extremely solid first year. Imagine Switch 2 launching with a new 3D Mario, Mario Kart and a  Pokémon game.

No matter what hardware it has it would do record numbers and Nintendo would have the time to produce enough units to meet demand. They could also release it Q1 2025, but they should already be starting up production to have enough units.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar