A sequel almost never sells better than the original. A remake almost never sells better than the original.
I dont need to explain that.

The difference is this time that it's not "will fall off a cliff." It literally has fallen off a cliff. -46% YoY Americas, -43% YoY Japan. The drop is humoungous. Maybe it can recover in December and pull itself back up over the edge of that cliff and post more respectable numbers, maybe it can't.

But comparing the talk this month to previous baseless "cliff" comments is disingenuous. The Switch in November 2023 has dropped like a rock, that's not a hypothetical irrational belief, it's a fact.

I am sure Europe will be big drop as well .. As I said earlier in the year, Switch is not making more than 15M this year, continuing the downward path it started since 2020 (between 4 and 5M down every year after it's peak year) and it's perfectly on track for now. With successor next year, (or even without one) I am sure the decline will be at least another 4/5M if not more.

There is no such thing as impossible or can't. There is however thing as " won't " or thing as " the manufacturer don't give a f**k, therefore it won't do enough in order for this to happen " . Guess what. This is one of those cases. Nintendo DS is the other case .

You are right about the records, there is a moment when the record will be broken. And obviously now is not that moment, and the Switch is not the console. Maybe PS5 is ? It is still too early to call .. The record is record because it's tough to repeat it. DS was so close, and I am sure back in 2011/2012 many people were 100% sure DS will break the records, however it didn't. When you are so far in front of all like PS2, you have to come swinging with sales of above 200k weekly not only after 100M, not only after 120M, not only after 130M but after 140M and maybe even after 145M to be sure the given console is beating PS2 (or to compensate for big cliff from the likes of Wii, DS, PS4 just in case it happens). You have to be better than the normal trajectory suggest, because as we see, it isn't looking so hard when you are at 100, 120, 130, 140M and you are selling well (PS4, NSW, NDS) and people start to talk about system that is 30, 40, 50M away. And the closer you come the harder it becomes, just like mountain. The Switch is the next example in the line. The closer you get, the more of momentum of sales you loose. It is the same way in many other things too. When you are of the top of your game then you can fell the baddest and the fastest. (and very often it happens). That's why no one should underestimate the record holders and most notably no one should underestimate those last 10,15,20M to the finish line in our case. Until you are in your full power, a hair of distance before the record holders, until then you can't talk with certainty.. just like the most of people here about Switch reaching PS2, just like pretty much everyone in 2011/2012 for the DS reaching PS2, just like even the many people about PS4 in 2019 and even 2020 (yes, including me, which I was wrong about, in big part because of my thoughts on what Sony will do, but still, I learn my mistake, manufacturer's don't give a s**t, and PS2 trajectory is not happening again).

So with declining sales DS didn't do it, Switch won't, PS4 was even very far. So 3 tries, 3 of them failed. That's why I am saying it has to be more than that. That's why I am saying when you are very close to PS2 (above 140M you have to be at your peak or at worst 1 year after your peak) to be sure you will pass it. Yes I know it is little bit shocking, but the chances of stopping your momentum of sales obviously are the biggest when you are at numbers between 100 and 150M. (PS4, GAMEBOY, NSW, NDS, PS2, just PS2 finished last) Maybe it's saturation point I don't know. However if you want to be 100% or at least 80% sure that a given system will beat PS2, then give me hitting 120M in it's peak year, reaching 145 - 150M in it's next 2 years after that peak year (something like Switch declines after 2020, not the DS/Wii ones), then you are in the game. Then even with big drops it's last 2-3 years surely will do some 10M in total passing PS2. The other variant is PS2 trajectory, but as we all know and see PS2 trajectory hasn't been repeated by no one. So I just rule that out. Crawling just isn't going to cut it. It didn't with DS, it won't with NSW (yes, by the time 2025 comes, Switch will be crawling and it will be about 15M short of it's target). That's why I am saying you have to be swinging in those 140-150M lifetime numbers, not crawling. You should be no more than 2 years after you peak year when you are closing in on 150M, to be absolutely sure you are beating PS2 big time.

And yes, records were made to be broken. The same was said by someone in 2011 for the DS I am sure. Just like it is now by you for the Switch, same will be the result. Even maybe little bit worse, cuz with those declines that Switch shows now, I am even doubting if it will reach close to DS lifetime sales let alone the almost 160M of the PS2 ..

A Link Between Worlds sold more than Skyward Sword though.

Yes I don't really see concrete evidence that the Zelda franchise was losing popularity. Skyward Sword selling less than Twilight Princess is expected. Majora's Mask selling less than A Link Between Worlds is expected.

The later titles on a console always sell worse than the early titles due to lack of legs, as the system they are on is replaced sooner. Below is each consoles game in release order, this pattern will continue with ToTK selling less than BOTW I'm sure. Really the sales numbers are just reliant on how popular the console was and how soon after the game released was the console replaced. Until BOTW which clearly marked a huge step-up for the franchise.

Wii
Twilight Princess - 7.5m
Skyward Sword - 3.67m

3DS
Ocarina of Time 3D - 6.44m
A Link Between Worlds - 4.26m
Majora's Mask 3D - 3.46m

WiiU
Wind Waker HD - 2.37m
Breath of the Wild - 1.7m

Switch
Breath of the Wild - 31.15m
Links Awakening - 6.46m
Skyward Sword HD - 4.15m
Tears of the Kingdom - 19.5m

I was going by the sales numbers on the site, and they give me 3.57M for A Link Between Worlds versus 3.97M for Skyward Sword

Despite shockingly low results for November in the USA, I don't see a reason to put much stock into it. After all, both the PS5 and XSX|S had weak results too and they shouldn't have had them, because it's their third year of availability. Switch having a bigger percentage drop than them had to be expected due to Switch's age, but all things considered, we are not witnessing a Switch-only problem here.

The US retail landscape for holiday sales had started a transformation in the late 2000s when major Black Friday deals were introduced, so already back in 2010 it was more sensible to wait for November and December sales combined before drawing conclusions. Later on Cyber Monday muddled the picture even more, especially because it can fall into either the November or December tracking period depending on the year.

Europe information just came out so we have:

Americas: -46% YoY
Japan: -43% YoY
EU: -35% YoY  (Does not include UK/Germany)
UK: -19% YoY

Depending on how it did in Germany and the other untracked european countries I'm guessing decline for Europe as a whole will be in the low 20's, 23-25% so a better result than the other regions.

Nintendo always makes the same mistakes. They hold on too long to their platforms. They should have had the Switch 2 out this holiday season, it would have been 6.5 years old, more than long enough. Not surprisingly the sales will have collapsed by the time the 8th year of sales starts in March.