The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[XtremeBG]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

There is also an irrational belief that a Nintendo system can't beat the PS2's sales record.  Folks, records were made to be broken.  The PS2's record can be beaten and the Switch is the console that can do it.

There is no such thing as impossible or can't. There is however thing as " won't " or thing as " the manufacturer don't give a f**k, therefore it won't do enough in order for this to happen " . Guess what. This is one of those cases. Nintendo DS is the other case .

You are right about the records, there is a moment when the record will be broken. And obviously now is not that moment, and the Switch is not the console. Maybe PS5 is ? It is still too early to call .. The record is record because it's tough to repeat it. DS was so close, and I am sure back in 2011/2012 many people were 100% sure DS will break the records, however it didn't. When you are so far in front of all like PS2, you have to come swinging with sales of above 200k weekly not only after 100M, not only after 120M, not only after 130M but after 140M and maybe even after 145M to be sure the given console is beating PS2 (or to compensate for big cliff from the likes of Wii, DS, PS4 just in case it happens). You have to be better than the normal trajectory suggest, because as we see, it isn't looking so hard when you are at 100, 120, 130, 140M and you are selling well (PS4, NSW, NDS) and people start to talk about system that is 30, 40, 50M away. And the closer you come the harder it becomes, just like mountain. The Switch is the next example in the line. The closer you get, the more of momentum of sales you loose. It is the same way in many other things too. When you are of the top of your game then you can fell the baddest and the fastest. (and very often it happens). That's why no one should underestimate the record holders and most notably no one should underestimate those last 10,15,20M to the finish line in our case. Until you are in your full power, a hair of distance before the record holders, until then you can't talk with certainty.. just like the most of people here about Switch reaching PS2, just like pretty much everyone in 2011/2012 for the DS reaching PS2, just like even the many people about PS4 in 2019 and even 2020 (yes, including me, which I was wrong about, in big part because of my thoughts on what Sony will do, but still, I learn my mistake, manufacturer's don't give a s**t, and PS2 trajectory is not happening again).

So with declining sales DS didn't do it, Switch won't, PS4 was even very far. So 3 tries, 3 of them failed. That's why I am saying it has to be more than that. That's why I am saying when you are very close to PS2 (above 140M you have to be at your peak or at worst 1 year after your peak) to be sure you will pass it. Yes I know it is little bit shocking, but the chances of stopping your momentum of sales obviously are the biggest when you are at numbers between 100 and 150M. (PS4, GAMEBOY, NSW, NDS, PS2, just PS2 finished last) Maybe it's saturation point I don't know. However if you want to be 100% or at least 80% sure that a given system will beat PS2, then give me hitting 120M in it's peak year, reaching 145 - 150M in it's next 2 years after that peak year (something like Switch declines after 2020, not the DS/Wii ones), then you are in the game. Then even with big drops it's last 2-3 years surely will do some 10M in total passing PS2. The other variant is PS2 trajectory, but as we all know and see PS2 trajectory hasn't been repeated by no one. So I just rule that out. Crawling just isn't going to cut it. It didn't with DS, it won't with NSW (yes, by the time 2025 comes, Switch will be crawling and it will be about 15M short of it's target). That's why I am saying you have to be swinging in those 140-150M lifetime numbers, not crawling. You should be no more than 2 years after you peak year when you are closing in on 150M, to be absolutely sure you are beating PS2 big time.

And yes, records were made to be broken. The same was said by someone in 2011 for the DS I am sure. Just like it is now by you for the Switch, same will be the result. Even maybe little bit worse, cuz with those declines that Switch shows now, I am even doubting if it will reach close to DS lifetime sales let alone the almost 160M of the PS2 ..

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 14 December 2023