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Zippy6 on 14 December 2023
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Jumpin said:

Wasn't the whole cliff argument about Switch's success during the first year being an illusion of launch hype, and would ultimately be a failure because of dying sales after the launch hype ran out?

That was the original cliff argument, but it seems to change every year.  A new cliff argument comes out whenever Switch has a sudden negative change in sales (or sometimes a positive change too).

Most of 2018: "Nintendo launched all of it's big guns during 2017.  Sales are declining and are going to fall off a cliff."
Then Smash Bros released in late 2018 and critics were silenced for a short amount of time.

Early 2019: "Now that Smash Bros released, Nintendo has launched the last of it's big guns.  Sales are down and are going to fall off a cliff."
Then in the second half of 2019, several strong titles released for Switch and critics were temporarily silenced.

2020: "These high sales for Switch are due to COVID.  As soon as lockdowns end Switch sales will fall off a cliff."

2021:  "These high sales are still due to COVID."


2022 and most of 2023 didn't have much cliff talk because Nintendo released a lot of strong titles during this time period.

Late 2023: "Look at how much Switch sales have dropped.  Sales are about to fall off a cliff."

Heh, it's the same cliff talk that Switch has had for most of it's life.  It's not based on sound reasoning but on irrational beliefs.  Early on there was the irrational belief that Switch couldn't do well, because the Wii U didn't do well.  There is also an irrational belief that a Nintendo system can't beat the PS2's sales record.  Folks, records were made to be broken.  The PS2's record can be beaten and the Switch is the console that can do it.

The difference is this time that it's not "will fall off a cliff." It literally has fallen off a cliff. -46% YoY Americas, -43% YoY Japan. The drop is humoungous. Maybe it can recover in December and pull itself back up over the edge of that cliff and post more respectable numbers, maybe it can't.

But comparing the talk this month to previous baseless "cliff" comments is disingenuous. The Switch in November 2023 has dropped like a rock, that's not a hypothetical irrational belief, it's a fact.

Last edited by Zippy6 - on 14 December 2023