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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Shtinamin_ on 25 November 2023
Fight-the-Streets said:

You interpret it wrongly. Again, asked about the Switch if it will still be supported in fiscal year 2025, Furukawa of course answers with a yes because 1. it's true and 2. anything else would shy away potential Switch buyers. Everything after that, i.e. starting from April 1, 2025 onwards is nothing Furukawa wants to share with investors, media and the public at this point as it's too early, irrespective if the Switch will still be supported or not. Again, Nintendo is a very conservative Japanese company that is very careful with the information they share and anything that's farther away than about 6 month (sometimes a bit more) will simply not be talked about.

We are almost at the fiscal year for 2025. It starts this upcoming April. Your second point though is a smart business move, has no relevancy when he is speaking the truth (sorry i just didnt see a need to include the 2.) Truth is truth.
Yes I agree that he doesnt want to share corporate plans after april 2025, which is a very legitimate and understandable reason. I was just speculating and asking open ended questions as to why does he specifically state March 31 2025 when that is almost 1.5 years away (way further than the usual conservative 6 months.

Why do you think they specifically stated March 31, 2025 being the end for software support? Why didn't they say they have no plans to stop producing Nintendo Switch games at this time? (which seems like a very Nintendo-like answer they would give). Or why didn't they have a different date in mind (like June 30th 2027)?

I just like speculating what is happening, and want to see what others think.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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hellobion2 on 26 November 2023

nintendo shalt win



BiON!@ 

Shtinamin_ on 27 November 2023
hellobion2 said:

nintendo shalt win

I agree.
How will it win. What will Nintendo do to ensure victory over the PS2?
Please try to keep it as realistic as possible.

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 27 November 2023

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

kilik on 27 November 2023

It is entirely up to Nintendo if it reaches PS2 or not.

If they stop production right after Switch 2 it will reach around 150 million. If the keep it as a low-cost alternative for another two years it can make 160 million.



fedfed on 27 November 2023

I think they should just to cement their name up there. And I agree, it is all hands. 150 mil seems to be happening organically at this point. 10 needs them to keep producing it cheaper and for longer.



Switch!!!

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Shtinamin_ on 27 November 2023

I was just viewing the Platform Totals Chart here: https://www.vgchartz.com/charts/platform_totals/Hardware.php/
And I noticed that the total in Europe sold are very similar in sales for the Nintendo Switch and the Nintendo Wii, 33.56M and 33.12M respectively. I understand that the Switch still has at least 2-3 more years of console lifeshelf left, but I find it interesting how much Europe doesn't care that much for Nintendo consoles (except the handhelds: DS and GB at 51.84 and 40.05 respectively). Is this because those that live in Europe see the Nintendo Switch as a home console more than a handheld?

Another note regarding this chart, what is everyone's hypotheses/predictions for North America (Is North America supposedly the same as the Americas, I know the Americas includes South America, but William D'Angelo has stopped using North American numbers since January this year), Europe, Japan, and the rest of the World by the end of the Switch's lifecycle, and the end of this Q3.


I personally think that Switch will reach the following number once production is finished:
North America 56.34M
Europe 38.43M
Japan 40.36M
Rest of the World 27.23M.

And this Q3 will be:
North America 52.62M (+2.57M)
Europe 34.5M (+0.94M)
Japan 33.7M (+2.6M)
Rest of the World 19.8M (+1.19M)

My Rest of the World estimate once production is terminated may be high.
My North America estimate might be a bit high for Q3.

*edit: I was using The Americas 50.05M instead of the 46.6M in North America.

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 27 November 2023

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

XtremeBG on 27 November 2023
Shtinamin_ said:

Another note regarding this chart, what is everyone's hypotheses/predictions for North America (Is North America supposedly the same as the Americas, I know the Americas includes South America, but William D'Angelo has stopped using North American numbers since January this year), Europe, Japan, and the rest of the World by the end of the Switch's lifecycle, and the end of this Q3.


I personally think that Switch will reach the following number once production is finished:
North America 56.34M

And this Q3 will be:
North America 52.62M (+2.57M)


My North America estimate might be a bit high for Q3.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 27 November 2023

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Global LT Showdown / Regional LT Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart / Quantity of Games

Shtinamin_ on 27 November 2023
XtremeBG said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I personally think that Switch will reach the following number once production is finished:
North America 56.34M

And this Q3 will be:
North America 52.62M (+2.57M)


My North America estimate might be a bit high for Q3.

*edit: I was using The Americas 50.05M instead of the 46.6M in North America.

That is a wonderful chart! Thank you!

Ok so based on this USA should be around 49.9M by the end of production.
And Q3 be around 43.8M (I assume USA sold right now is at 42.1M).

May I ask why the chart is USA and not North America?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

trunkswd on 27 November 2023
Shtinamin_ said:

I was just viewing the Platform Totals Chart here: https://www.vgchartz.com/charts/platform_totals/Hardware.php/
And I noticed that the total in Europe sold are very similar in sales for the Nintendo Switch and the Nintendo Wii, 33.56M and 33.12M respectively. I understand that the Switch still has at least 2-3 more years of console lifeshelf left, but I find it interesting how much Europe doesn't care that much for Nintendo consoles (except the handhelds: DS and GB at 51.84 and 40.05 respectively). Is this because those that live in Europe see the Nintendo Switch as a home console more than a handheld?

Another note regarding this chart, what is everyone's hypotheses/predictions for North America (Is North America supposedly the same as the Americas, I know the Americas includes South America, but William D'Angelo has stopped using North American numbers since January this year), Europe, Japan, and the rest of the World by the end of the Switch's lifecycle, and the end of this Q3.


I personally think that Switch will reach the following number once production is finished:
North America 56.34M
Europe 38.43M
Japan 40.36M
Rest of the World 27.23M.

And this Q3 will be:
North America 52.62M (+2.57M)
Europe 34.5M (+0.94M)
Japan 33.7M (+2.6M)
Rest of the World 19.8M (+1.19M)

My Rest of the World estimate once production is terminated may be high.
My North America estimate might be a bit high for Q3.

*edit: I was using The Americas 50.05M instead of the 46.6M in North America.

The Platform Totals page and the weekly/monthly charts on the front page are North American data and doesn't include Latin America, while the Americas monthly articles (https://www.vgchartz.com/article/459048/ps5-best-seller-switch-tops-50m-lifetime-americas-hardware-estimates-for-october-2023/ / https://www.vgchartz.com/article/459050/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-vs-switch-2023-americas-sales-comparison-charts-through-october/ ) include the data from Latin America.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Shtinamin_ on 27 November 2023
trunkswd said:

The Platform Totals page and the weekly/monthly charts on the front page are North American data and doesn't include Latin America, while the Americas monthly articles (https://www.vgchartz.com/article/459048/ps5-best-seller-switch-tops-50m-lifetime-americas-hardware-estimates-for-october-2023/ / https://www.vgchartz.com/article/459050/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-vs-switch-2023-americas-sales-comparison-charts-through-october/ ) include the data from Latin America.

Thanks for the clarification!

I figured that was the case. You do a wonderful job. Keep it up!



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.