Nintendo lowered its forecast for the fiscal year from 12.5M to 11M. That would put it at 152.32M shipped at the end of March.

If we compare shipments of prior Nintendo systems. Specifically, the DS and 3DS, from January of the year their successor launched until discontinuation, this is what we got.
DS - 9.43 million units shipped
3DS - 10.64 million units shipped.

Assuming Switch 1's final shipments from here on out falls within this range, we're looking at 160.29 - 161.5 million units LTD.

Goddamn it, I REALLY hope Switch 1 finishes below 160m, above 161.8m, or Sony actually gives as an actual final tally for the PS2. Because if THAT'S where Switch 1 finishes, the debates are never going to end!!

Yeah, from now on, I think following the Switch's trajectory will feel a lot more different. Like watching a snail trying to reach the other side of the room or seeing if someone can fill a glass of water using a dropper

When we get the next earnings report hopefully Nintendo will give us a forecast for the Switch for the fiscal year ending March 2026, along with the Switch 2 forecast.

PS2 numbers include refurbished and returned units. That would cover the majority of any broken, defective, or replaced units. In which case, a large amount of the .4% (which is hundreds of thousands of units) would be for demos and kiosks. Which is pretty believable to me. Take the US for example, one of the biggest chains here is Walmart and they have about 4,000 stores across the US, which was a huge market for the PS2. So having a few hundred thousand units for demo/kiosks across the world seems very realistic to me. 

Looks like we are at the moment of a console’s life where the amount of units that gets sold ≠ the amount of units that gets shipped. Nintendo is slowing down shipment as their demand is slowing down too.

This road to 160.64M will be simple.

I don't think, refurbished PS2s are part of this 160 million units, but for sure the demo stations for shops wich get sent back to Sony after the product's life is over. And you have to see that not only the original PS2 got demostations, in fact theee where also quire a few  demostations for PS2 Slim. As someone working at a software store i can tell you, some of them break (the PS2 DVD drive is known for having issues and demostations do not magically last forever as well) and they have to be replaced by new ones. So if you ask me, "a few hundred thousand units" is quite low. I would give it a million or more...

So 6.5 million this year and 2.7 million next year and we are there. Sounds really doable.

See ya in two years.

Who else think that whatever the switch ends, sony will come and say "Oh, we found secret last ps2 numbers. What are the switch numbers ? Ah, so bad, we've done one million more" ?

Well, except if the switch reaches something like 170, but it's very unlikely, or else it would mean that nintendo decided to make the switch 1 a low budget switch 2 option.

I think that if Switch gets really close to 160 but don't reach it, Sony will come out and say exact number that will be between 160-160.6M range in order to confirm they are N1. But if Switch passes the 160M, Sony won't update the PS2 figure anymore and the latest will remain on their website - over 160M