It will outsell the ps2 100% but 160mill may be a stretch.

You are aware Sony updated (aka Jim Ryan made a vague comment on a podcast) PS2 figures to >160mil earlier this year, right?

1. Expensive and long development times were already a reality during the PS3/Xbox 360 era (though less relevant for the Wii). In fact, I recall that when the next generation was approaching (i.e., PS4/Xbox One), there were discussions and concerns that development costs and times would increase even further. Many argued that this time around, programming would be easier and more cost-effective due to the shift from the PowerPC architecture (especially the complicated Cell processor of the PS3) to the x86 architecture. However, it turned out that, at least for AAA games, development costs and times for the PS4/Xbox One still increased compared to the previous generation. While handhelds differ from home consoles, the PS3/Xbox 360 set a precedent for modern consoles (of which the Switch is one) in terms of the typical length of a console generation (i.e., 7-8 years). From this perspective, it was clear to me that the Switch, if successful, would remain on the market for at least 7 years before a successor would arrive.

2. Discussing the size of the handheld market in the past holds little relevance today. Who cares if it was once 240 million units? The fact is, after the failure of the PS Vita, Sony decided to exit the handheld market, Microsoft never entered it, and no other competitors appeared. Additionally, smartphone and tablet games took over a significant portion of that market. In reality, Nintendo also left the pure handheld market and created a new niche: the hybrid market. So far, Nintendo occupies this niche alone (excluding PC handhelds/hybrids) because Sony can't afford to develop games for both the PS5 and a potential PS hybrid. They would look foolish if they used a PS hybrid as the base console and then merely upscaled the games (with higher frame rates) for the PS5 (and PS5 Pro). In that case, the PS5 (and PS5 Pro) would lose their relevance. Given Microsoft's current strategy, it also doesn't make sense for them to create a hybrid console, although rumors suggest it's possible.
   
   But the key question remains: If Nintendo is so profitable with their hybrid strategy, why don't Sony or Microsoft copy them? The answer is that their fanbases demand powerful, dedicated home consoles with high-fidelity graphics (not quite at the level of high-end PCs, but still very capable). Neither Sony nor Microsoft can abandon the home console market. By committing to home consoles, they automatically rule out hybrid consoles, due to the limited development resources (including third-party support) available. Therefore, comparing today's handheld market with the past is meaningless. No matter how successful the Nintendo Switch is, it stands to reason that a single hybrid console can't match the combined success of two separate handhelds (DS and PSP). Furthermore, the 240 million figure isn't reflective of unique users—there’s overlap between DS and PSP owners. Additionally, the smartphone/tablet market has significantly eaten into the handheld market, further shrinking it. As a result, the current handheld console market is undeniably smaller than it once was.

I also agree that there's no reason for discussing the handheld market and it's supposed size

1. Yes they somewhat were, but they weren't at the size of what they are now. The console generations were still at the same length and again, 2023 includes it's holiday as well which is almost 7 years from the launch (6 years and 9 months), also I included 2024 as well. On the polls and in the posts from 2019, 2020, most of the people were saying 2023 (spring or holiday) some would of course choose 2024, and in the years after that the 2024 prevailed of course, there were even some of them still choosing 2023 as recent as 2021, but as of then the 2024 was the most likely option. Anyway, my point about that was pointed directly to him, and was one more example I didn't downplay, undershoot, low ball or hate on the switch since it was normal back then to anticipate 2023 or 2024 launch, because almost no one really anticipated 2025.

2. That is why I made the point in the first place. It isn't mind blowing from this perspective.

About Sony and Microsoft, there were recently rumors Sony is getting ready to enter in the handheld market again, and for Microsoft even too. It will be interesting to watch if both of those end true.

The 160m figure had been out there before. I recall seeing it previously as an estimate due to Sony stopping reporting on PS2 sales years before the PS2 stopped production. Likely to make PS3/PS4 sales look better to the market and investors without the comparison in reports hanging over it. Regardless the PS2 certainly sold past the 155 mark was officially reported.

But the PS2s success was unique, it was a DVD player, after Japan/North America/Europe moved on it became cheap and the plaything of developing nations like the South America region. From all that I can tell, technology since then no longer drops in price as dramatically to produce so price drops are unlikely to ever be a thing again. Heck we've seen the opposite with Sony, mid-generation price hikes for the same machine and ridiculous prices for the pro version. Even the PS4 never had as dramatic a price drop as previous generations of consoles, which should signify the Switch released later will unlikely have a big, sales changing drop, even when the Switch successor comes out.

A big share of those 240 million handheld gamers in the 7th gen is now the phone gaming audience; the casual players who mostly played stuff like Brain Age and Nintendogs, or kids now getting a tablet instead of a DS.

Comparing Switch's sales to the combined install base of DS + PSP is not an apples to apples comparison because of this; the explosion in phone/tablet gaming stole away a huge amount of that audience, and Switch has to compete with that whereas DS and PSP for the most part did not.

I think people are also missing the fact that 240M combined DS/PSP sales does not mean 240M potential users. How many users had both? I know I did. Anyone else?

I'd imagine there is a lot of overlap. Particularly in Japan.

Yes, I absolutely agree. But the point is still true. The handheld console market was once bigger. Therefore it's not mind blowing now. Switch does not need to compete. There are simply less people interested in handheld console device than they were back then. Of course there was some overlap, but still, I doubt the overlap was 80-90M. Big chunk of those went to smartphones.

I personally would want Sony and Microsoft to put out new handheld, because it will be interesting. Will it be possible for the handheld market to grow bigger than what it is now with the Switch ? Can they actually compete with Nintendo on this front and what portion of sales they can take from them ? Hopes the rumors become true. Only the customers win in that situation.

I would argue that Switch's sales are actually still pretty mind-blowing in their own right though, in the context that it has to share the market with everything from phones and tablets on the mobile side to Playstation and Xbox on the home console side.

With so many other options for one's gaming fix nowadays, a single platform tracking to outsell the DS, something no other system released in the last 23 years has come close to doing, it darn impressive in my opinion.