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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Fight-the-Streets on 20 June 2024
trunkswd said:
Mar1217 said:

The real problem of this whole ordeal is if the Switch gets into the 155M+ range but doesn't reach the 160M+ What should we do ? Like this would likely end up on a huge debate over which of the PS2 or the Switch gets the title of best selling console with end in sight ... Forever ...

I am hoping the Switch clears 160M so we don't have to worry about which one sold more. 

Yeah, I hope and I'm confident that the Switch will clear even the mathematical highest possible number the PS2 could have sold, which is 161.8m. Then, any endless fanboy discussion would be obsolete.



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CheddarPlease on 20 June 2024
Norion said:
RolStoppable said:

If you base it on the DS, then you have to expect the same timeline the 3DS went through during its launch year. The 3DS tremendously underperformed which forced Nintendo to issue a major price cut that was so severe that it sandwiched the 3DS at $170 between the DSi at $150 and the DSi XL at $180. With this kind of setup it's no wonder that the backwards compatible 3DS cut into DS sales in a significant way.

We don't know what Switch's successor price will be nor its year 1 lineup, plus we lack reasons to assume that it could be as bad as the 3DS following the DS. In the event of lack of knowledge, I refrain from assuming the worst and the best case scenarios as the likeliest ones. So if we default to the middle, yes, 11m this fiscal year are good enough to push Switch past 160m.

The DS Lite also got a price cut in 2011 though so there was still some gap between it and the 3DS after that and the Switch falling a little bit short of the DS's post successor wouldn't be the worst case scenario since the DS shipped 17.5m in its final fiscal year before the 3DS came out so the Switch wouldn't need to fall off as hard to fall a bit short. The worst case scenario would be it falling off harder followed by it falling off equally as hard. The Switch Lite being a notably cheaper option will help avoid those scenarios though.

To be clear at this point it definitely has a good shot of reaching 160m, I just think there's still a reasonable chance it falls a bit short depending on what Nintendo does over the next couple years.

My opinion is that the only way it misses 160m is if it fails to hit 11m this year, which isn't completely out of the question, but the point I think we were trying to make is that 11m as a baseline basically puts anything less than 160m out of the probable realm of possibility



CheddarPlease on 20 June 2024
Fight-the-Streets said:
trunkswd said:

I am hoping the Switch clears 160M so we don't have to worry about which one sold more. 

Yeah, I hope and I'm confident that the Switch will clear even the mathematical highest possible number the PS2 could have sold, which is 161.8m. Then, any endless fanboy discussion would be obsolete.

Yeah my personal target has been 162m since they did the estimates thread on Era.



Norion on 20 June 2024
CheddarPlease said:
Norion said:

The DS Lite also got a price cut in 2011 though so there was still some gap between it and the 3DS after that and the Switch falling a little bit short of the DS's post successor wouldn't be the worst case scenario since the DS shipped 17.5m in its final fiscal year before the 3DS came out so the Switch wouldn't need to fall off as hard to fall a bit short. The worst case scenario would be it falling off harder followed by it falling off equally as hard. The Switch Lite being a notably cheaper option will help avoid those scenarios though.

To be clear at this point it definitely has a good shot of reaching 160m, I just think there's still a reasonable chance it falls a bit short depending on what Nintendo does over the next couple years.

My opinion is that the only way it misses 160m is if it fails to hit 11m this year, which isn't completely out of the question, but the point I think we were trying to make is that 11m as a baseline basically puts anything less than 160m out of the probable realm of possibility

The Switch falling off quickly after its successor comes out is a real possibility though depending on what Nintendo does. As I said it wouldn't need to have declines as big as the DS had after the 3DS came out to fall short. It had a 70% decline followed by 54% where for the Switch 60% followed by 45% wouldn't make it if it does 11m this fiscal year.

Though that's assuming it does 11m. If it does 12m it'll basically be guaranteed to make it whereas if it only does 10m then it would most likely miss it without a price cut I think so it really is coming down to the wire now.



XtremeBG on 20 June 2024

The gap between 155M and 162M is pretty big - 7M so the chances are very big that Switch can finish in that gap exactly .. 7M for the last years of it's life may be 2 to 3 years of sales .. Also passing the 160 or 162M isn't the only case where there won't be debates. Not reaching 155M is the another case where debates won't be made too.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart / Quantity of Games

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fedfed on 21 June 2024

they should make more limited edition Switch consoles to close the gap! I Hope Zelda Switch lite has at least 500k produced.



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Shtinamin_ on 23 June 2024
CheddarPlease said:
Fight-the-Streets said:

Yeah, I hope and I'm confident that the Switch will clear even the mathematical highest possible number the PS2 could have sold, which is 161.8m. Then, any endless fanboy discussion would be obsolete.

Yeah my personal target has been 162m since they did the estimates thread on Era.

My personal target since I’ve first posted on here (which isn’t long) is 162.36M.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

eldanielfire on 26 June 2024
Shtinamin_ said:
CheddarPlease said:

Yeah my personal target has been 162m since they did the estimates thread on Era.

My personal target since I’ve first posted on here (which isn’t long) is 162.36M.

Very specific target for lifetime sales.

Anyway, the Switch has almost certainly passed the sales of the PS2 in USA by the time the new Zelda comes out:

https://mynintendonews.com/2024/06/24/us-switch-lifetime-unit-sales-trail-ps2-by-1-41-million-as-of-may/




eldanielfire on 26 June 2024

Looking at the European charts, Jan to May, the Switch is deffo selling much less than last year, though it was an unusually weak lie-up for that period and last year was Tears of the Kingdom launch. The autumn looks stronger overall though and has the potential for some sales boosts. be interesting to see if 2D Zelda as a playable character is a system seller:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/461531/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-vs-switch-2024-europe-sales-comparison-charts-through-may/



XtremeBG on 26 June 2024
eldanielfire said:

Anyway, the Switch has almost certainly passed the sales of the PS2 in USA by the time the new Zelda comes out:

https://mynintendonews.com/2024/06/24/us-switch-lifetime-unit-sales-trail-ps2-by-1-41-million-as-of-may/



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart / Quantity of Games