The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Norion]

CheddarPlease said:

Norion said:

The DS Lite also got a price cut in 2011 though so there was still some gap between it and the 3DS after that and the Switch falling a little bit short of the DS's post successor wouldn't be the worst case scenario since the DS shipped 17.5m in its final fiscal year before the 3DS came out so the Switch wouldn't need to fall off as hard to fall a bit short. The worst case scenario would be it falling off harder followed by it falling off equally as hard. The Switch Lite being a notably cheaper option will help avoid those scenarios though.

To be clear at this point it definitely has a good shot of reaching 160m, I just think there's still a reasonable chance it falls a bit short depending on what Nintendo does over the next couple years.

My opinion is that the only way it misses 160m is if it fails to hit 11m this year, which isn't completely out of the question, but the point I think we were trying to make is that 11m as a baseline basically puts anything less than 160m out of the probable realm of possibility

The Switch falling off quickly after its successor comes out is a real possibility though depending on what Nintendo does. As I said it wouldn't need to have declines as big as the DS had after the 3DS came out to fall short. It had a 70% decline followed by 54% where for the Switch 60% followed by 45% wouldn't make it if it does 11m this fiscal year.

Though that's assuming it does 11m. If it does 12m it'll basically be guaranteed to make it whereas if it only does 10m then it would most likely miss it without a price cut I think so it really is coming down to the wire now.