| FiveOVER said: Thanks!! It was 7 million in May. So it took 4 months to sell an additional half a million. MH Rise might just leg it out to 8.5 million on switch alone. Unless Capcom decides to release the base Rise on PC before Sunbreak. That might cut off its legs maybe? |
I actually doubt that Rise on PC cuts a lot of users out. The PC version will mostly sell to people not owning a Switch.
| Kneetos said: I think the ps5 can top 10 million sales in japan, though I think it depends on what nintendo does with their next system. |
you say that, but have you seen nintendo actually bomb a handheld? no. the closest they got to that was the early 3ds.
| FiveOVER said: Thanks!! It was 7 million in May. So it took 4 months to sell an additional half a million. MH Rise might just leg it out to 8.5 million on switch alone. Unless Capcom decides to release the base Rise on PC before Sunbreak. That might cut off its legs maybe? |
Rise is due to come to PC before the release of Sunbreak, but I don't think that will cut the game's long terms sales on Switch any more than the PC release of a PS/Xbox game would. In the end different people just have different platform preferences, and some continue to choose Switch over PC. I certainly don't see it selling less than 8.5 million lifetime on Switch.
Last edited by curl-6 - on 26 September 2021
Mnementh said:
I actually doubt that Rise on PC cuts a lot of users out. The PC version will mostly sell to people not owning a Switch. |
True, but there's probably a not insignificant number of latecomers that may me swayed to go PC. Hopefully Capcom would heavily discount the switch version to counteract this.
| curl-6 said: Rise is due to come to PC before the release of Sunbreak, but I don't think that will cut the game's long terms sales on Switch any more than the PC release of a PS/Xbox game would. In the end different people just have different platform preferences, and some continue to choose Switch over PC. I certainly don't see it selling less than 8.5 million lifetime on Switch. |
Platform splits is also dependent on how a game is marketed. It helps that most of the marketing so far highlights the switch version. We'll also have to see how Capcom markets the expansion.
Last edited by FiveOVER - on 26 September 2021
RolStoppable said:
How is that bleeding money? Japan is one of the closest countries to the factories where PS5 consoles are being produced, so Sony shipping the consoles to Japan instead of South America where a portion of PS5s meant for sale in Japan land too is actually a cost benefit for Sony. Just about the only scenario where it costs Sony more concerns consoles being shipped to Japan only to be imported back to China again, but even then, such costs are a drop in the bucket for Sony's overall PS business. The reason why it's beneficial for Sony to have consoles officially sold in Japan is because that's a country where a lot of notable third party publishers are at home. It obviously helps Sony if the PS5 performance in Japan looks better than it really is. How it really is can be derived from PS5 software sales, but that isn't something that everyone will be paying attention to or will accept as the truth until after the plans for future software development have been made. |
If this was a thing then Sony should keep shipping their PS5 to China only and then let scalpers do the job exporting them. It's cost effective, right? lol
The reason why it's better to sell directly to customers is because customers buy games, which is right now the only source of money they can get though PS5 as the hardware itself is sold at lost. Shipping them to sell abroad and having no track of who is just straight up bad business decision, we are talking about 1 million PS5 here, about 9% of total hardware sales of PS5, 9% of PS5 sales in grey market Sony can't really track
Even the premise publishers choose platforms looking only for hardware sales makes no sense, seems like your theory is based on the dumbness of third party publishers that Sony is trying to fool as if publishers couldn't see their own software sales and where they came from. Well I guess people are inclined to believe in anything that proves a point
| noshten said: J Playstation Ecosystem Hardware(2014-2021):
Playstation Ecosystem Sofware(2014-2021):
Hardware will be up YoY but it's fairly obvious that Software will reach a new low after 2020, I think it's likely that 2021 overall software sales will be below 2.5 million. At the moment I believe we are at under 1.5 million software. A far cry from what the PS ecosystem was doing at the launch of the PS4 with over 15 million in 2014, majority of which were from third party titles. The impact of PS Ecosystem falling this far behind and majority of AA becoming either exclusive or multiplat on the Switch in 2022 and beyond is putting the Switch into an unprecedented place late into it's life-cycle in Japan. Next year is going to be another strong year for hardware and pretty much guaranteed to be the Software peak due to Splatoon 3, Legends: Arceus, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Breath of the Wild Sequel etc. |
This numbers further give me the insights is not PS5 that are being sold for outside Japan, is just japonese moving away from Sony entirely. We could see from 2018 to 2020 that despite increase in PS4 userbase (up 3.4 million) software sales just kept plummeting (54% decline), I see no reason for Sony software sales not decrease another 25-30% yet again in 2021, although seems like you are predicting decline to be even more dramatic (over 50% in a year)
I believe currently PS5 owners are just the more hardcore adopters of PS4, and the "casuals" PS4 owners started to migrate to Switch slowly after 2018. Sony is basically selling software for the PS4 owners that did not abandoned the system in favor of Switch or are buying because some IPs are not in Switch. 2.5 million software in 2021 for something among ~1.1 million hardware is an awful multiplayer, but the truth is that everyone just haven't realized Sony ratio was already dramatic back in 2019 when they had 8.5 million cumulative hardware sales and only 8.87 million software sales meaning the tie-in ratio for physical games in Japan for PS4 was only slightly above 1. To make my point more clear
2018: Userbase (PS4) 7.3 million. Software sales 11.61 million. Tie ratio 1.59
2019: Userbase (PS4) 8.5 million. Software sales 8.87 million. Tie ratio 1.04 (-34%)
2020: Userbase (PS4+PS5) 9.3 million. Software sales 5.5 million. Tie ratio 0.59 (-43%)
2021: Userbase (PS4+PS5, excluding double ownership) likely 9.3 million again. Software sales 2.5 million (your prediction). Tie ratio 0.26 (-56%)
Most likely PS4 userbase isn't using the device anymore and the real active PS4+PS5 userbase (i.e. people who are buying software and playing games) is probably closer to 2 million. I believe Sony can go as high as having 4 million PS5 sold in Japan, but hardly anything higher than that, the general desertion of PS4 software sales seems the biggest indicator PS5 will have no life in Japan
| padib said: Icaro, what I don't understand honestly from your position is: how is Sony to know who is scalping? Since they have no clue, all they know on their end is that they are selling units. Who is scalping and how is anybody's guess. |
Sony can track the account used to use the device
We are talking about some hundred of thousands of hardware here. If they have 1 million PS5 sold in Japan but only 500 thousand are being used by japanese then something must be wrong. PS5 shipping units were actually increasing since summer, if Sony was seeing the shipments going elsewhere they were most likely to ship abroad directly
IcaroRibeiro said:
|
Are you attempting to say here that those who spend a lot of money to buy scalped PS5s are not going to "buy games"? What the hell do you think they do with them then?
IcaroRibeiro said:
This numbers further give me the insights is not PS5 that are being sold for outside Japan, is just japonese moving away from Sony entirely. We could see from 2018 to 2020 that despite increase in PS4 userbase (up 3.4 million) software sales just kept plummeting (54% decline), I see no reason for Sony software sales not decrease another 25-30% yet again in 2021, although seems like you are predicting decline to be even more dramatic (over 50% in a year) I believe currently PS5 owners are just the more hardcore adopters of PS4, and the "casuals" PS4 owners started to migrate to Switch slowly after 2018. Sony is basically selling software for the PS4 owners that did not abandoned the system in favor of Switch or are buying because some IPs are not in Switch. 2.5 million software in 2021 for something among ~1.1 million hardware is an awful multiplayer, but the truth is that everyone just haven't realized Sony ratio was already dramatic back in 2019 when they had 8.5 million cumulative hardware sales and only 8.87 million software sales meaning the tie-in ratio for physical games in Japan for PS4 was only slightly above 1. To make my point more clear 2018: Userbase (PS4) 7.3 million. Software sales 11.61 million. Tie ratio 1.59 2019: Userbase (PS4) 8.5 million. Software sales 8.87 million. Tie ratio 1.04 (-34%) 2020: Userbase (PS4+PS5) 9.3 million. Software sales 5.5 million. Tie ratio 0.59 (-43%) 2021: Userbase (PS4+PS5, excluding double ownership) likely 9.3 million again. Software sales 2.5 million (your prediction). Tie ratio 0.26 (-56%) Most likely PS4 userbase isn't using the device anymore and the real active PS4+PS5 userbase (i.e. people who are buying software and playing games) is probably closer to 2 million. I believe Sony can go as high as having 4 million PS5 sold in Japan, but hardly anything higher than that, the general desertion of PS4 software sales seems the biggest indicator PS5 will have no life in Japan |
I agree
However the tie ratio is wrong since the Software Figures for 2020 I used were from the Famitsu Top 100, in order to get the best tie-ratio its best use M-C Top 1000 figures, the drop from 2019 to 2020 is a lot less when we look at these figures:
PlayStation Ecosystem 2014-2020 Media Create Top 1000:
While I've compiled the Top 50 titles on the PS4/PS5 this year with the exception of Miles Morales & Demon Souls which should be an additional 50K+ units, add in some legs like 10-20% outside of the Top 30 and we end up with slightly over 1.5 million software for this year thus far, best case scenario PS Ecosystem reaches 3.5 million sales this year in the Top 1000.
PlayStation Ecosystem Top 50 Famitsu
TOTAL: 1.297.033
TOTAL PS4: 1.060.289 (81.7%)
TOTAL PS5: 236.744 (18.3%)
| padib said:
|
N64 was much more successful in US than in Japan compared to the SNES however of the Nintendo's first-party million sellers released on N64 only 13 out of 36 were western developed and those represented about 32% of the total first-party million seller sales on N64 (I'm talking worldwide, of course).
About Us |
Terms of Use |
Privacy Policy |
Advertise |
Staff |
Contact
Display As Desktop
Display As Mobile
© 2006-2024 VGChartz Ltd. All rights reserved.
