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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 38, 2021 - (13th Sept - 19th Sept)

curl-6 said:
src said:

Unless you live in 2000, handhelds and home consoles perform differently.

That didn't help the Vita. PS sales in Japan simply haven't been much good since the PSP.

Vita was a disaster worldwide. 16m and 6m were from Japan that's almost 40%. The mighty Wii sold over 100m worldwide but only 12m in Japan. 3ds sold 75m worldwide and over 20m were from Japan 



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Pinkie_pie said:
curl-6 said:

That didn't help the Vita. PS sales in Japan simply haven't been much good since the PSP.

Vita was a disaster worldwide. 16m and 6m were from Japan that's almost 40%. The mighty Wii sold over 100m worldwide but only 12m in Japan. 3ds sold 75m worldwide and over 20m were from Japan 

None of that changes what I said though. PS sales in Japan are not "great" and the last time they were was PSP and PS2.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 26 September 2021

curl-6 said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Vita was a disaster worldwide. 16m and 6m were from Japan that's almost 40%. The mighty Wii sold over 100m worldwide but only 12m in Japan. 3ds sold 75m worldwide and over 20m were from Japan 

None of that changes what I said though. PS sales in Japan are not "great" and the last time they were was PSP and PS2.

It is great when you compare it to everywhere else. Let me ask you this, why did the 3ds sold twice as much as the wii in japan when the wii sold 100m worldwide compare to the 3ds 75m? I know you are the biggest nintendo fan but lets not pretend japan dont favor handheld over home console



Pinkie_pie said:
curl-6 said:

None of that changes what I said though. PS sales in Japan are not "great" and the last time they were was PSP and PS2.

It is great when you compare it to everywhere else. Let me ask you this, why did the 3ds sold twice as much as the wii in japan when the wii sold 100m worldwide compare to the 3ds 75m? I know you are the biggest nintendo fan but lets not pretend japan dont favor handheld over home console

I'm quite certain there are bigger Nintendo fans than me on this forum. I never said Japan didn't love handhelds, we all know they do, but it's not as simple as just portable > console inherently there, as evidenced by PS4 outselling Vita.

At any rate, PS4 is the #4 best selling system worldwide, but it's #13 in Japan. That's not great.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 26 September 2021

curl-6 said:
Pinkie_pie said:

It is great when you compare it to everywhere else. Let me ask you this, why did the 3ds sold twice as much as the wii in japan when the wii sold 100m worldwide compare to the 3ds 75m? I know you are the biggest nintendo fan but lets not pretend japan dont favor handheld over home console

I'm quite certain there are bigger Nintendo fans than me on this forum. I never said Japan didn't love handhelds, but it's not as simple as just portable > console there, as evidenced by PS4 outselling Vita.

At any rate, PS4 is the #4 best selling system worldwide, but it's #13 in Japan. That's not great.

The wii which was a huge success only sold 12m in japan. We probably will never see another home console selling 10m and thats because japan been abandoning home console in favor of handheld. PS3 did 10m and PS4 even with monster hunter, dragon quest and the most popular final fantasy of all ff7 couldnt even help ps4 reach 10m. 9-10m is great for a home console in japan which i think PS5 will be around that mark



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Pinkie_pie said:
curl-6 said:

I'm quite certain there are bigger Nintendo fans than me on this forum. I never said Japan didn't love handhelds, but it's not as simple as just portable > console there, as evidenced by PS4 outselling Vita.

At any rate, PS4 is the #4 best selling system worldwide, but it's #13 in Japan. That's not great.

The wii which was a huge success only sold 12m in japan. We probably will never see another home console selling 10m and thats because japan been abandoning home console in favor of handheld. PS3 did 10m and PS4 even with monster hunter, dragon quest and the most popular final fantasy of all ff7 couldnt even help ps4 reach 10m. 9-10m is great for a home console in japan which i think PS5 will be around that mark

I wouldn't call Wii's sales in Japan "great" though. And PS2 was a home console and it sold over 23 million. If we're going to narrow it down to just recent home consoles, then to me that just seems like saying "it sold great by not great standards".

Last edited by curl-6 - on 26 September 2021

I think the ps5 can top 10 million sales in japan, though I think it depends on what nintendo does with their next system.

If the switch 2 is as mishandled as the wii u, and let's be honest, knowing nintendo there is a better then average chance it could be, then japanese gamers aren't NOT going to buy a playstation 5 is it turns out to be the better syatem



IcaroRibeiro said:
Agente42 said:

So the Ps4 software will increase, right? or stabilize? But Ps4 software goes down. And Used ps4 software too.

If PS5 owners are 100% PS4 owners, which I believe them to be, then yeah, they should be in stability as the userbase isn't growing only changing their machine. It's easy to point what is happening, but it needs to be a multi factor analysis, I'm both lazy and busy to make this myself, but for guys who likes to analyze numbers we need three things:

- Compare if sales decrease in PS4 software are mostly from games released in both Switch and PS4. In West, a third party released in both systems are more likely to sells better in PS4 for performance reasons, in Japan where people don't seem to mind graphics and such it will surely sells better on Switch as it is the preferred system. The decrease in PS4 software is then a byproduct of Switch competition and PS5 being nothing but an oversized PS4 isn't really helping to recover the market

- Compare if software sales for PS4+PS5 software not released on Switch (Tales of Arise, RE Village, etc) is somewhat similar to PS4 sales of the last entries, or at least 85% the same, as digital sales are increasing year after year 

- See the software sales for PS5 games only from series that are popular in Japan. So far the only title in horizon that comes to mind might be... Final Fantasy 16 maybe?

I'm not by any means denying Sony is at crisis in Japan and they are surely being destroyed by Nintendo on weekly basis as numbers are proving, however the assertion PS5 hardware is being sold in Japan only to be resold outside Japan is just crazy. I understand the abysmal numbers of PS5 software sales, but instead of looking for PS5 sales we, just maybe, should start looking for PS4+PS5 software sales to see if people are using their PS5 or not

And of course scalping hardware from Japan to elsewhere is a thing, but it happen with almost every console. Switch was surely far more scalped than PS5 is, because Switch releases across the world was much more spread out, including a very 3 years late release in China

I will need a really good argument for Sony purposefully shipping hardware to Japan only for them to be scalped elsewhere, that's basically bleeding money for nothing

first, not true for West. A and AA production sell better on Switch too. Nis skipped Ps4 for Disgaea in the west. You have a dozen examples of indies games sell better on Switch. In the same launch window, you have many examples of Switch have better sales performance. 

Second, the Japanese market doesn´t change your habits because of one console. It´s not normal in any country. The tendency is common ground for all markets. If digital go high in Japan you can see this tendency in all video games, but not the case. Digital-only go high when physical runs out or the game have only digital.  The digital it´s growing, it´s true, but a slow pace compared with another countries ( like UK, US, etc)

The used market in Japan it´s strong and it´s not a big country like the US, Brazil, and Australia. So you find good deals, in the store around the corner. 

Last edited by Agente42 - on 26 September 2021

Kneetos said:

I think the ps5 can top 10 million sales in japan, though I think it depends on what nintendo does with their next system.

If the switch 2 is as mishandled as the wii u, and let's be honest, knowing nintendo there is a better then average chance it could be, then japanese gamers aren't NOT going to buy a playstation 5 is it turns out to be the better syatem

The PS4 was selling when the Wii U was a thing, which was basically Nintendo’s lowest point with their home consoles. I doubt another Wii U would suddenly change the situation for the PS5 since we’ve already witnessed the PS4 have everything on its side and still missing the 10 million mark LTD.

And in technicality, the PS5 is the “better” system. It’s a an upgrade in power and features compared to the PS4, which was already more powerful than the Switch. But we’ve also seen that with the Vita and 3DS, PSP and DS, and PS3 and Wii.

As for comparing home consoles or whether the Switch should count as either a handheld or home console, I have one thing.. While the Switch can be played on the go, I can see how it’s treated as a home console as well. The OG model is $300 or so in Japan (if you don’t include the $200 Lite). Not to mention, most of Nintendo’s biggest games are priced like any other home console games. Unless you can convince me (or Nintendo in that matter) that BotW or Smash Bros Ultimate or XC2 should’ve launched at $40 because they’re supposed to be considered handheld games, I don’t see it being just exclusively one way or the other. I guess you could say the AT&T WiFi model of the Vita should’ve brought down my stance in terms of price (it was $299 at launch), but it didn’t sell well so..I guess people thought it was too expensive for a handheld at the time (not to mention the memory cards being expensive at the time too).



Japanese Line-up for Rest of Year by Publisher:

Capcom - nothing until the end of the year
Konami: 3 - Power Pro Pocket R(Switch Exclusive), Girls Side 4th Heart(Switch Exclusive), eFootball(F2P PS Exclusive)
Bandai Namco: 4 - Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot(Late port on Switch), Super Robot Wars 30(Multiplat), Disney Magical World 2(Switch Exclusive), The IdolM@aster(PS Exclusive)
Square Enix: 2 - Voice of Cards(Switch Exclusive?), Guardians of the Galaxy(PS Exclusive / Switch gets a Cloud version)
Marvelous - nothing until end of the year
Koei Tecmo: 3 - Fatal Frame(Multiplat), Dynasty Warriors 9 Empires(Multiplat), Blue Reflection: Second Light(Mutliplat)
Sega: 2 - Lost Judgement(PS Exclusive), Monkey Ball(Late port)
Atlus: 1 - SMT V(Switch Exclusive)
Level 5: 1 - Megaton Musashi(Multiplat)
Falcom: 1 - The Legend of Heroes: Kuro no Kiseki(PS4 Exclusive)
Spike Chunsoft: 1 - Danganronpa Trilogy Pack(Late port on Switch)
FuRyu: 1 - Monark(Multiplat)
Tango: 1 - Ghostwire: Tokyo(PS Exclusive)

Multiplats: 6

Switch Exclusives: 5

PS Exclusives: 5

Late ports on Switch: 3 


Rest of the year there are around 18 games that I would say should be expected to surpass 25K sales.

Nothing much coming to the PS5 with Lost Judgement & Ghostwire being the highest profile Japanese third party titles but both will likely be way shy of 100K 

Bandai has the most titles followed by Konami & Koei Tecmo

Not sure if I'm missing anything, we also have Demon Slayer by Aniplex(not sure if I should count them as a third party) & a bunch of Western third party games which are likely to struggle due to their PS exclusivity. 

The transition from the PS4 to the PS5 will be brutal, combined with how quickly PS4 has declined this year, right now on 3 titles that have surpassed 100K

100K+ PS4 Third Party Titles:

2014: 4

2015: 8

2016: 18

2017: 18

2018: 20

2019: 14

2020: 13

2021: 3

100K+ PS3/PSV Third Party Titles:

2014: 27

2015: 18

2016: 16

2017: 2

2018: 1

The likely scenario for the PS4 this year we will see a big decline for games that will surpass 100K - RE: Village, Tales of Arise, Nier Replicant, Lost Judgement are guaranteed, we cant really be sure about SW5, SRW30, Kuro no Kiseki or DW9E & Western Third party AAA to making it. it could very well be that we end up with 6-7 so around 50% decline YoY.

Meanwhile when comparing PS4 launch, the PS5 is still at 0, it probably won't get to Four Third Party titles with over 100K until some point in 2022... this is  confounded by the fact that the legacy system PS4 is declining far quicker than PS3/PSV. In 2014 there 27 titles on the legacy ecosystem that surpassed 100K, and 2015 and 2016 were also strong years for the legacy systems. People should definitely think about this when comparing the future strategy of vast majority of third parties in Japan compared to past generations. Since the current situation is leading into 2022 where we will probably see no more than 2-3 third party titles surpassing 100K on the PS5. 

Playstation Ecosystem Hardware(2014-2021):

  1. 2016 - 2.7M
  2. 2014 - 2.52M
  3. 2015 - 2.46M
  4. 2017 - 2.28M
  5. 2018 - 1.87M
  6. 2019 - 1.22M
  7. 2021 - 0.88M
  8. 2020 - 0.79M

Playstation Ecosystem Sofware(2014-2021):

  1. 2014 - 15.15M
  2. 2016 - 14.98M
  3. 2015 - 14.22M
  4. 2017 - 12.28M
  5. 2018 - 11.61M
  6. 2019 - 8.87M
  7. 2020 - 5.49M

Hardware will be up YoY but it's fairly obvious that Software will reach a new low after 2020, I think it's likely that 2021 overall software sales will be below 2.5 million.

At the moment I believe we are at under 1.5 million software. A far cry from what the PS ecosystem was doing at the launch of the PS4 with over 15 million in 2014, majority of which were from third party titles. The impact of PS Ecosystem falling this far behind and majority of AA becoming either exclusive or multiplat on the Switch in 2022 and beyond is putting the Switch into an unprecedented place late into it's life-cycle in Japan. Next year is going to be another strong year for hardware and pretty much guaranteed to be the Software peak due to Splatoon 3, Legends: Arceus, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Breath of the Wild Sequel etc.