Japanese Line-up for Rest of Year by Publisher:
Capcom - nothing until the end of the year
Konami: 3 - Power Pro Pocket R(Switch Exclusive), Girls Side 4th Heart(Switch Exclusive), eFootball(F2P PS Exclusive)
Bandai Namco: 4 - Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot(Late port on Switch), Super Robot Wars 30(Multiplat), Disney Magical World 2(Switch Exclusive), The IdolM@aster(PS Exclusive)
Square Enix: 2 - Voice of Cards(Switch Exclusive?), Guardians of the Galaxy(PS Exclusive / Switch gets a Cloud version)
Marvelous - nothing until end of the year
Koei Tecmo: 3 - Fatal Frame(Multiplat), Dynasty Warriors 9 Empires(Multiplat), Blue Reflection: Second Light(Mutliplat)
Sega: 2 - Lost Judgement(PS Exclusive), Monkey Ball(Late port)
Atlus: 1 - SMT V(Switch Exclusive)
Level 5: 1 - Megaton Musashi(Multiplat)
Falcom: 1 - The Legend of Heroes: Kuro no Kiseki(PS4 Exclusive)
Spike Chunsoft: 1 - Danganronpa Trilogy Pack(Late port on Switch)
FuRyu: 1 - Monark(Multiplat)
Tango: 1 - Ghostwire: Tokyo(PS Exclusive)
Multiplats: 6
Switch Exclusives: 5
PS Exclusives: 5
Late ports on Switch: 3
Rest of the year there are around 18 games that I would say should be expected to surpass 25K sales.
Nothing much coming to the PS5 with Lost Judgement & Ghostwire being the highest profile Japanese third party titles but both will likely be way shy of 100K
Bandai has the most titles followed by Konami & Koei Tecmo
Not sure if I'm missing anything, we also have Demon Slayer by Aniplex(not sure if I should count them as a third party) & a bunch of Western third party games which are likely to struggle due to their PS exclusivity.
The transition from the PS4 to the PS5 will be brutal, combined with how quickly PS4 has declined this year, right now on 3 titles that have surpassed 100K.
100K+ PS4 Third Party Titles:
2014: 4
2015: 8
2016: 18
2017: 18
2018: 20
2019: 14
2020: 13
2021: 3
100K+ PS3/PSV Third Party Titles:
2014: 27
2015: 18
2016: 16
2017: 2
2018: 1
The likely scenario for the PS4 this year we will see a big decline for games that will surpass 100K - RE: Village, Tales of Arise, Nier Replicant, Lost Judgement are guaranteed, we cant really be sure about SW5, SRW30, Kuro no Kiseki or DW9E & Western Third party AAA to making it. it could very well be that we end up with 6-7 so around 50% decline YoY.
Meanwhile when comparing PS4 launch, the PS5 is still at 0, it probably won't get to Four Third Party titles with over 100K until some point in 2022... this is confounded by the fact that the legacy system PS4 is declining far quicker than PS3/PSV. In 2014 there 27 titles on the legacy ecosystem that surpassed 100K, and 2015 and 2016 were also strong years for the legacy systems. People should definitely think about this when comparing the future strategy of vast majority of third parties in Japan compared to past generations. Since the current situation is leading into 2022 where we will probably see no more than 2-3 third party titles surpassing 100K on the PS5.
Playstation Ecosystem Hardware(2014-2021):
- 2016 - 2.7M
- 2014 - 2.52M
- 2015 - 2.46M
- 2017 - 2.28M
- 2018 - 1.87M
- 2019 - 1.22M
- 2021 - 0.88M
- 2020 - 0.79M
Playstation Ecosystem Sofware(2014-2021):
- 2014 - 15.15M
- 2016 - 14.98M
- 2015 - 14.22M
- 2017 - 12.28M
- 2018 - 11.61M
- 2019 - 8.87M
- 2020 - 5.49M
Hardware will be up YoY but it's fairly obvious that Software will reach a new low after 2020, I think it's likely that 2021 overall software sales will be below 2.5 million.
At the moment I believe we are at under 1.5 million software. A far cry from what the PS ecosystem was doing at the launch of the PS4 with over 15 million in 2014, majority of which were from third party titles. The impact of PS Ecosystem falling this far behind and majority of AA becoming either exclusive or multiplat on the Switch in 2022 and beyond is putting the Switch into an unprecedented place late into it's life-cycle in Japan. Next year is going to be another strong year for hardware and pretty much guaranteed to be the Software peak due to Splatoon 3, Legends: Arceus, Kirby and the Forgotten Land, Breath of the Wild Sequel etc.