Famitsu sales: Week 38, 2021 - (13th Sept - 19th Sept)

[noshten]

IcaroRibeiro said:

noshten said:

J 

Playstation Ecosystem Hardware(2014-2021):

1. 2016 - 2.7M
2. 2014 - 2.52M
3. 2015 - 2.46M
4. 2017 - 2.28M
5. 2018 - 1.87M
6. 2019 - 1.22M
7. 2021 - 0.88M
8. 2020 - 0.79M

Playstation Ecosystem Sofware(2014-2021):

1. 2014 - 15.15M
2. 2016 - 14.98M
3. 2015 - 14.22M
4. 2017 - 12.28M
5. 2018 - 11.61M
6. 2019 - 8.87M
7. 2020 - 5.49M

This numbers further give me the insights is not PS5 that are being sold for outside Japan, is just japonese moving away from Sony entirely. We could see from 2018 to 2020 that despite increase in PS4 userbase (up 3.4 million) software sales just kept plummeting (54% decline), I see no reason for Sony software sales not decrease another 25-30% yet again in 2021, although seems like you are predicting decline to be even more dramatic (over 50% in a year)

I believe currently PS5 owners are just the more hardcore adopters of PS4, and the "casuals" PS4 owners started to migrate to Switch slowly after 2018. Sony is basically selling software for the PS4 owners that did not abandoned the system in favor of Switch or are buying because some IPs are not in Switch. 2.5 million software in 2021 for something among ~1.1 million hardware is an awful multiplayer, but the truth is that everyone just haven't realized Sony ratio was already dramatic back in 2019 when they had 8.5 million cumulative hardware sales and only 8.87 million software sales meaning the tie-in ratio for physical games in Japan for PS4 was only slightly above 1. To make my point more clear

2018: Userbase (PS4) 7.3 million. Software sales 11.61 million. Tie ratio 1.59

2019: Userbase (PS4) 8.5 million. Software sales 8.87 million. Tie ratio 1.04 (-34%)

2020: Userbase (PS4+PS5) 9.3 million. Software sales 5.5 million. Tie ratio 0.59 (-43%)

2021: Userbase (PS4+PS5, excluding double ownership) likely 9.3 million again. Software sales 2.5 million (your prediction). Tie ratio 0.26 (-56%)

Most likely PS4 userbase isn't using the device anymore and the real active PS4+PS5 userbase (i.e. people who are buying software and playing games) is probably closer to 2 million. I believe Sony can go as high as having 4 million PS5 sold in Japan, but hardly anything higher than that, the general desertion of PS4 software sales seems the biggest indicator PS5 will have no life in Japan

I agree

However the tie ratio is wrong since the Software Figures for 2020 I used were from the Famitsu Top 100, in order to get the best tie-ratio its best use M-C Top 1000 figures, the drop from 2019 to 2020 is a lot less when we look at these figures:

PlayStation Ecosystem 2014-2020 Media Create Top 1000:

1. 2014 - 16.067.673
2. 2016 - 15.125.473
3. 2015 - 14.810.407
4. 2017 - 12.214.294
5. 2018 - 11.764.786
6. 2019 - 9.537.039
7. 2020 - 8.018.518

While I've compiled the Top 50 titles on the PS4/PS5 this year with the exception of Miles Morales & Demon Souls which should be an additional 50K+ units, add in some legs like 10-20% outside of the Top 30 and we end up with slightly over 1.5 million software for this year thus far, best case scenario PS Ecosystem reaches 3.5 million sales this year in the Top 1000. 

PlayStation Ecosystem Top 50 Famitsu

1. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 191.983
2. [PS4] Tales of Arise (Bandai Namco) - 184.444
3. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 158.265
4. [PS4] Tsukihime (Aniplex) - 80.042
5. [PS4] Samurai Warriors 5 (Koei Tecmo) - 72.727
6. [PS5] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 67.000
7. [PS5] Tales of Arise (Bandai Namco) - 56.913
8. [PS4] Scarlet Nexus(Bandai Namco) - 31.665
9. [PS4] Biomutant (THQ Nordic) - 30.292
10. [PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 24.968
11. [PS4] Judgment [New Price Edition] (Sega) - 24.271
12. [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Remake Intergrade (Square Enix) - 23.491
13. [PS4] Neptunia x Senran Kagura: Ninja Wars (Compile Heart) – 18.789
14. [PS4] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 18.289
15. [PS5] Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart (Sony) - 17.850
16. [PS5] Ghost of Tsushima - Director's Cut (Sony) - 17.271
17. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (Sony) - 16.454
18. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 16.352
19. [PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 16.235
20. [PS5] Judgement: Remastered [New Price Edition] (Sega) - 14.749
21. [PS4] Ninja Gaiden: Master Collection (Koei Tecmo) - 14.483
22. [PS4] NieR: Automata - GotY Edition (Square Enix) - 13.712
23. [PS4] Guilty Gear - Strive (Arc System) - 13.574
24. [PS4] Winning Post 9 2021 (Koei Tecmo) - 13.221
25. [PS5] Scarlet Nexus (Bandai Namco) - 12.785
26. [PS4] The Legend of Nayuta: Boundless Trails (Falcom) - 11.230
27. [PS4] The Quintessential Quintuplets (5pb.) - 10.378
28. [PS4] Utawarerumono: ZAN 2 (Aqua Plus) - 10.241
29. [PS4] Nioh 2 - Complete Edition (Koei Tecmo) - 9.969
30. [PS4] NEO: The World Ends With You (Square Enix) - 9.248
31. [PS5] Returnal (Sony) - 9.148
32. [PS4] R-Type Final 2 (Granzella) - 8.693
33. [PS4] The Caligula Effect 2 (FuRyu) - 8.454
34. [PS4] Outriders (Square Enix) - 7.966
35. [PS4] NBA 2K22 (Take-Two) - 6.291
36. [PS4] Hitman 3 (H2 Interactive) - 5.132
37. [PS4] Akiba's Trip: First Memory (Acquire) - 4.888
38. [PS4] Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 (H2 Interactive) - 4.551
39. [PS5] Utawarerumono: ZAN 2 (Aqua Plus) - 4.081
40. [PS5] Hitman 3 (H2 Interactive) - 3.890
41. [PS4] Rust (Koch Media) - 3.671
42. [PS5] Guilty Gear - Strive (Arc System) - 3.547
43. [PS4] Darius Cozmic Revelation (Taito) - 3.540
44. [PS4] Fate/Extella - Celebration Box (Marvelous) - 3.498
45. [PS4] The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles (Square Enix) - 3.470
46. [PS4] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Saku (Entergram) - 3.361
47. [PS5] Deathloop (Sony) – 3.158
48. [PS4] Atelier Mysterious Trilogy (Koei Tecmo) - 3.074
49. [PS4] Re:ZERO - Starting Life in Another World (Spike Chunsoft) - 2.868
50. [PS5] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 2.861

TOTAL: 1.297.033
TOTAL PS4: 1.060.289 (81.7%)
TOTAL PS5: 236.744 (18.3%)