The fact that the PSVita outsold the N64/Gamecube and was able to reach 50% of PS4's LT sales without any major exclusives or IPs is very telling. No Final Fantasy, no Dragon Quest, no Monster Hunter etc

Another thing that’s telling is the fact none of y’all want to shout out no home console and say NSW is portable and that’s what sells in japan..... then wake up to see that argument is flawed due to NSW lite vs the original sku

PSV had a lot of support by AA third parties in Japan, it also got western indie titles, if it had a fraction of the Support PS3/PS4 received it would have done a lot better. Its all about the software and Nintendo consolidated it's two audiences while Sony lost their portable audience in Japan. Now that they are no longer getting a bunch of exclusives every month by first parties & Japanese third parties on the PS4/PS5 the ecosystem has started its rapid decline.

In the end software sells hardware. PS5 has sold less than 500K physical software since launch with only a handful of titles to surpass 50K - Resident Evil: Village, Tales of Arise, Demon Souls and Miles Morales. In the meantime PS4 is declining rapidly in terms of Software sales compared to the PS3 which chugged along for several years after the launch of the PS4 because it continued to get a steady line-up of cross gen games and PSV ports.

Media Create Top 1000 PS3 Software

2013 - 11.965.634 

2014 - 7.510.433 <- PS4 launched February 

2015 - 4.185.655 

2016 - 1.629.591

TOTAL: 25.291.313

Media Create Top 1000 PSV Software

• 2013 - 3.512.352
• 2014 - 5.062.082 <- PS4 launched February 
• 2015 - 5.205.609 
• 2016 - 4.823.793 

TOTAL: 18.603.836

Media Create Top 1000 PS4 Software

• 2019 - 9.235.333 
• 2020 - 7.839.893 <- PS5 launched November

TOTAL: 17.075.226

Right now PS4 is heading for under 3 million software sold in 2021 within the Top 1000 games on Media Create; next year it will likely see further decline as it's not getting enough titles or supply with price cut to move substantial hardware. Its unlikely we would see PS4 supply or price cut due to the chip shortages. 

In the meantime more people are like to transition to the Switch from the PS4 than to PS5, based on the 500K software sold on the PS5 its likely we are looking at at most 350K active users in Japan buying games; rest are likely resold overseas leading to no physical software sales in Japan. Up until 2017 Sony was selling over 2 million hardware an year in Japan, since they discontinued the PSV they've started their hardware decline. This is coinciding with the loss of a lot of AA exclusives over the past few years years. Current year we are heading for the first time since 1994 that Nintendo is guaranteed to have more Japanese third party exclusive than the PS Ecosystem. 

This is the basic reason why Switch at three times the price of the DS will end up outselling it in it's lifetime. By abandoning the market - Sony has basically handed Nintendo gain such a dominant position over their prior audiences in Japan. We are already seeing Visual Novels sell way more on the Switch and this was a staple of the PSP/PSV, Konami's Baseball games have completely transitioned. This in my opinion is what will likely keep the Switch above 5 million hardware. 

The worst time for Nintendo was basically 2014-2016 period where PSV combined with the dominant support PS4 received from Japanese companies really put the squeeze on them while 3DS was already well past it's peak and Wii U face-planted into irrelevance. Ever since the Switch launched in 2017 and all their software was focused on one device instead of having to support two - it has enabled them to really ensure the Switch is successful without third parties. 

Really late-2020 with the launch of Momotaro, Age of Calamity, Sakuna etc. marks that start of the Era where the Switch is getting more Japanese Third Party support. This will continue to pull demographics that bought PS systems in the past into opting to buy a Switch instead. It happened with the transition from the Vita whose audience didn't end up buying a PS4... and will continue with the PS4 in the coming two years.   

Nintendo Hardware by Year:

• 2011 - 6.476.048 <- 3DS launch, First 3DS price cut
• 2012 - 6.731.034 <- Wii U launch, 3DS XL launch,
• 2013 - 5.839.175 
• 2014 - 3.789.699
• 2015 - 3.223.729
• 2016 - 2.359.163
• 2017 - 5.087.805 <- Switch launch
• 2018 - 4.048.808
• 2019 - 4.685.235 <- Switch Lite launch
• 2020 - 6.019.704 
• 2021 - <- OLED launch

Now with the full momentum due to Nintendo, Pokemon Co and Third Party line-up it's likely that the Switch OLED will allow 2021 to surpass 2020.

For next year we can expect even more third party support on the Switch which is already getting announced release dates. Combined with Splatoon 3 and other major games by Nintendo & Pokemon Co for next year at the very least we can expect another 5 million year. 

Now there is always the possibility of a new model launching or the first official price cut in Japan as well. If either of those scenarios play out in 2022 I can see yet another year where Switch alone managed 6 million making the gap with the DS trivial 3-4 million even if a successor launches in 2023 - its unlikely for production of the existing models of the Switch to stop straight away.

Overall I anticipate that the Switch will take DS's crown in 2024. To me it's obviously all about the software, so far it's been mainly Nintendo. But now we are starting to see the impacts of third party support in the overall momentum of the system in Japan. I think third parties in the West were a factor from the start, indies definitely were present and I think their presence helped in a major way and they profited during the first few years of the Switch. Something overlooked due to Nintendo not reporting digital only sales totals.

Until Sony has a killer app on the PS5 I don't see them really winning back the market share they are about to lose this year.. and the killer app might not arrive in time for the Switch successor which is likely to get a lot more support from Japanese companies considering they don't really have that many options on their domestic market. 

Pretty much.

Even Nintendo with all its IPs could not make a mark in the home console sector with the failure that was the WiiU so they bowed out.

Again, this is obvious, everyone in the industry knows this for the past decade.

Only those with some narrative to spin, say things like its because Japan doesn't like Playstation.

Playstation is the last home console only system that can sell well in Japan. Playstation would never do a hybrid console as they employ top of the industry hardware, chip, software engineers to make cutting edge consoles and software. This is the right strategy, especially with AR/VR coming soon, Playstation is poised well to lead on the all new platform.

With the variability of games also coming back, Steam deck, shows that a portable Playstation that shares its library with the home console could happen sooner than later. If not then by then, 5G and streaming tech could allow a better streaming product.

I'm also glad SE and Capcom have completely retooled their pipelines to become AAA powerhouses. Namco Bandai is slowly starting as well. This is great for the Japanese industry as its been behind the West in software dev for a long long time.

This has become quite a fun thread. Both companies (Nintendo & Sony) will continue to do what is best for them. Their choices will come with rewards and consequences.

Nintendo's focus on hybrid platforms will probably lead to more versatility globally. Customers will buy the Switch and treat it as whatever they want(home, handheld, or hybrid console) allowing Nintendo to potentially gather a larger base. Strong customer base across NA, Europe, and Asia(including Japan) is a great advantage over the others which are seriously lacking in Asia compared to Nintendo. It will likely be the difference between Switch's 140 million potential vs PS4's 120 million potential. The downside to Nintendo's strategy is the lack of triple A 3rd party support. The platform being versatile hurts its hardware power leading to their absence.

Playstation will continue to build powerful home consoles because they want and need that Triple A 3rd party support. Western or Eastern support is important to Sony because Sony would then have to sell platforms using their own ip. The reward is a massive global userbase and a colossal amount of software sold. This strategy comes with the downside of turning away customers interested in any versatility in their platform. Japan is the perfect example of a country of people preferring versatility, Japan doesn't only love portable play or else Switch Lite would lead the charts and Vita would have smoked PS4. Japan is a big deal because there is no other country besides the US that can give you 30 million customers.

Both strategies work obviously, both companies latest platforms are among or will finish amongst the top 5 selling in history. Sony leads the industry in revenue and software while Nintendo leads in profits and hardware. Sounds like some good places to be in to me.

It will be very interesting to see the impact of the OLED model in Japan. In spite of claims that they "only care about handhelds" the country currently prefers the more expensive base model over the Lite, so will a premium hybrid catch their fancy, or will they continue to prefer its 2017 sibling?

Yeah I definitely didn't mean most western support was triple A. I meant most of what you see missing from Switch will be that Triple A 3rd party support. The Switch is building a massive userbase so quite alot of developers will bite despite the hardware. Quality is in the eye of the beholder so I never talk about it. Ring Fit Adventure isn't what I would call quality but it will surely outsell quite a few games that I do view as quality!

Yeah, Switch Lite (smaller and cheaper portable) sold more than Switch and Ring Fit Adventure (requires TV screen) sold terrible, said no one ever.

Is 2019 when Nintendo started shipping the Switch with the more efficient 16nm chip instead of the 20nm 2017 original. The Switch lite also uses that chip.

yeah. which is the point that a lot of people forget, while its bigger the V2 switch has more battery life then the switch lite, and battery life is like the biggest concern when considering portble devices. and the OLED might have around 30 mins more on average, maybe even more on darker games like metroid.

and at any rate, OLED is a good option for new buyers or ppl who bought V1 but wants more battery life, though i'm still personally holding out for a pro, most more relible sources cited 2022 as the realese date at the earliest for it anyway.

reminder that the date difference between the 3dsXL and n3ds is only 2 years(2012, 2014), AND the 2DS came out between the two. what I'm seeing is that the OLED is basically base switch V3, and i fully expect them to drop its price back to 300 as they drop the V2 version.

hell, my personal expectation is the pro coming out on the switch's 6 year anniversay at spring 2023, with them cleaning out stock of the lite and the v2 in 2022 with a price drop.