Otter said:
The fact that the PSVita outsold the N64/Gamecube and was able to reach 50% of PS4's LT sales without any major exclusives or IPs is very telling. No Final Fantasy, no Dragon Quest, no Monster Hunter etc |
PSV had a lot of support by AA third parties in Japan, it also got western indie titles, if it had a fraction of the Support PS3/PS4 received it would have done a lot better. Its all about the software and Nintendo consolidated it's two audiences while Sony lost their portable audience in Japan. Now that they are no longer getting a bunch of exclusives every month by first parties & Japanese third parties on the PS4/PS5 the ecosystem has started its rapid decline.
In the end software sells hardware. PS5 has sold less than 500K physical software since launch with only a handful of titles to surpass 50K - Resident Evil: Village, Tales of Arise, Demon Souls and Miles Morales. In the meantime PS4 is declining rapidly in terms of Software sales compared to the PS3 which chugged along for several years after the launch of the PS4 because it continued to get a steady line-up of cross gen games and PSV ports.
Media Create Top 1000 PS3 Software
2013 - 11.965.634
2014 - 7.510.433 <- PS4 launched February
2015 - 4.185.655
2016 - 1.629.591
TOTAL: 25.291.313
Media Create Top 1000 PSV Software
- 2013 - 3.512.352
- 2014 - 5.062.082 <- PS4 launched February
- 2015 - 5.205.609
- 2016 - 4.823.793
TOTAL: 18.603.836
Media Create Top 1000 PS4 Software
- 2019 - 9.235.333
- 2020 - 7.839.893 <- PS5 launched November
TOTAL: 17.075.226
Right now PS4 is heading for under 3 million software sold in 2021 within the Top 1000 games on Media Create; next year it will likely see further decline as it's not getting enough titles or supply with price cut to move substantial hardware. Its unlikely we would see PS4 supply or price cut due to the chip shortages.
In the meantime more people are like to transition to the Switch from the PS4 than to PS5, based on the 500K software sold on the PS5 its likely we are looking at at most 350K active users in Japan buying games; rest are likely resold overseas leading to no physical software sales in Japan. Up until 2017 Sony was selling over 2 million hardware an year in Japan, since they discontinued the PSV they've started their hardware decline. This is coinciding with the loss of a lot of AA exclusives over the past few years years. Current year we are heading for the first time since 1994 that Nintendo is guaranteed to have more Japanese third party exclusive than the PS Ecosystem.
This is the basic reason why Switch at three times the price of the DS will end up outselling it in it's lifetime. By abandoning the market - Sony has basically handed Nintendo gain such a dominant position over their prior audiences in Japan. We are already seeing Visual Novels sell way more on the Switch and this was a staple of the PSP/PSV, Konami's Baseball games have completely transitioned. This in my opinion is what will likely keep the Switch above 5 million hardware.
The worst time for Nintendo was basically 2014-2016 period where PSV combined with the dominant support PS4 received from Japanese companies really put the squeeze on them while 3DS was already well past it's peak and Wii U face-planted into irrelevance. Ever since the Switch launched in 2017 and all their software was focused on one device instead of having to support two - it has enabled them to really ensure the Switch is successful without third parties.
Really late-2020 with the launch of Momotaro, Age of Calamity, Sakuna etc. marks that start of the Era where the Switch is getting more Japanese Third Party support. This will continue to pull demographics that bought PS systems in the past into opting to buy a Switch instead. It happened with the transition from the Vita whose audience didn't end up buying a PS4... and will continue with the PS4 in the coming two years.
Nintendo Hardware by Year:
- 2011 - 6.476.048 <- 3DS launch, First 3DS price cut
- 2012 - 6.731.034 <- Wii U launch, 3DS XL launch,
- 2013 - 5.839.175
- 2014 - 3.789.699
- 2015 - 3.223.729
- 2016 - 2.359.163
- 2017 - 5.087.805 <- Switch launch
- 2018 - 4.048.808
- 2019 - 4.685.235 <- Switch Lite launch
- 2020 - 6.019.704
- 2021 - <- OLED launch
Now with the full momentum due to Nintendo, Pokemon Co and Third Party line-up it's likely that the Switch OLED will allow 2021 to surpass 2020.
For next year we can expect even more third party support on the Switch which is already getting announced release dates. Combined with Splatoon 3 and other major games by Nintendo & Pokemon Co for next year at the very least we can expect another 5 million year.
Now there is always the possibility of a new model launching or the first official price cut in Japan as well. If either of those scenarios play out in 2022 I can see yet another year where Switch alone managed 6 million making the gap with the DS trivial 3-4 million even if a successor launches in 2023 - its unlikely for production of the existing models of the Switch to stop straight away.
Overall I anticipate that the Switch will take DS's crown in 2024. To me it's obviously all about the software, so far it's been mainly Nintendo. But now we are starting to see the impacts of third party support in the overall momentum of the system in Japan. I think third parties in the West were a factor from the start, indies definitely were present and I think their presence helped in a major way and they profited during the first few years of the Switch. Something overlooked due to Nintendo not reporting digital only sales totals.
Until Sony has a killer app on the PS5 I don't see them really winning back the market share they are about to lose this year.. and the killer app might not arrive in time for the Switch successor which is likely to get a lot more support from Japanese companies considering they don't really have that many options on their domestic market.
Last edited by noshten - on 28 September 2021
