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Forums - Nintendo - Switch OLED model just got announced.

Otter said:
Shaunodon said:

Why would 2022 be it's last full year when we still can't say for certain it's actually peaking? A year ago it certainly wasn't mainstream thought that Switch should still be peaking now.

Even if it's incredibly unlikely to peak for a third year in a row, the fact they already have several confirmed heavy hitters announced and dated for 2022 and beyond, along with some that are surely in the pipeline by now (MARIO KART 9), if they can time the releases right they should be able to minimise the sales drop year-over-year until at least 2024.

Why do people keep assuming Nintendo should want to move away from one of, if not the most successful product they've ever had, as soon as possible? Why would they prioritise holding back BotW2 and MK9 for cross-gen, when they can release them sooner to an already massive install base, while also sustaining Switch sales for years to come?

Several thoughts here:

1. Nintendo themselves have projected 2021 to be the system's peak. We know they are conservative with their projections, but their projections do reflect some of their internal thinking and planning. If they've internally projected a decline this year, we can be sure they are thinking heavily about their next hardware moves. Hardware needs software and so Nintendo actually has to internally commit quite far in advance to releasing a new generation of hardware, as they need to spend 2-3 years developing exclusive software to take advantage of it. They can't just play the waiting game, I don't believe any company does this. 

2. Peak year is not really the bottom line in the discussion. I mean the PS1 peaked the same year the PS2 was released. This wasn't a mistake or some failure from Sonys side, no one argues the PS2 was released too early. It went on to be the highest selling console of all time. Its release date was perfect. 


3. Related to this, people seem to mainly understand console cycles and motives of companies in terms of units sold, the reality is companies care about $$$$, not units. You can make more money with 2 machines killing it than just one, and they don't have to cannibalize each other. Plenty of long-term Switch owners will be eager to buy new Nintendo hardware in 2023, meanwhile late adopters who are picking a Switch system 6-7 years late are a completely different audience altogether. You cannot treat them as one audience. The Switch OLED omitting any improvements for docked play/specs/battery etc is not a trivial decision imo. It says a lot. 

One of the benefits of having an extremely successful product already on the market, is that you don't have to be in a rush to prepare a successor. The games people are suggesting should be held back for cross-gen have already been in development for several years. Going by your estimates, even if they only begun developing games for a Switch successor now, they'd still have a good chance of having them ready for a 2024 launch year.

Unless you believe in cliff-theory, what chance is there that Switch sales will begin to seriously decline before 2024? Even with the hypothetical of Nintendo wanting two successful systems on the market at once, why should they jeopradise the sales of Switch (already selling at a historic rate), when they can easily sustain it for a couple more years, have more time to prepare titles for a successor, and should still be able to have them co-exist well after that point too?



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GoOnKid said:

Some of these responses here confuse me. Are you mad that you don't have to upgrade? Are you mad that you saved yourself 350 bucks? This product is for new customers.

Not really mad, if anything I'm fine we won't have exclusive games for new Switch as I wasn't planning to buy the new Switch, I was already saved from spending 350 bucks by default 

But Nintendo fans are very butthurt, people have no right to find any product lame on this forum it seems 



It doesn't seem to have an official new name? Just "Nintendo Switch (OLED model)". I was hoping for "Super Switch" or so.



This suggests no super long life cycle for Switch, so Switch 2 (with the rumored 4k DLSS) launching in Spring or Holiday 2024 is highly probably. Wouldn't make sense to launch before 2024 as Switch will still be selling huge numbers through 2022 and big games will still be hitting Switch in 2023, but Nintendo will no doubt want a new system on the market before Switch sales really start dropping under 15 million/year.

Software takeaways from this:
- no new Mario Kart on Switch, MK9 will be launch title on Switch 2 in 2024
- Switch won't get another 3D Mario, it'll be a 2024 Switch 2 game
- 2022 will get Pokemon Legends, Splatoon, Zelda, DK, couple smaller games
- 2023 will get Metroid Prime 4, 2D Mario, maybe Pikmin 4, perhaps Mario Strikers, couple smaller games
- 2024 might just get another Pokemon Legends game as the only big game for the year as Nintendo isn't gonna release a Pokemon game on a new system with small install base, and maybe some smaller or delayed games or ignored series like Star Fox or something to see how they do on a huge install base.
- Switch 2 launches either Spring or Holiday 2024 with MK9 and 3D Mario. Next gen Zelda probably won't be until like three years into Switch 2 lifecycle.



R.I.P. 60 FPS on DOOM Eternal for Switch.



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

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Seems like mostly upgrades for the portable aspect of the console. I dont use mine in portable mode, so I dont need to upgrade. Kinda disappointed that it isnt more powerful, but on the other hand, I dont need to worry about buying another Switch.



JRPGfan said:
OTBWY said:

Trailer just dropped randomly. Thoughts?

Where is the damn pro that was rumored?
This is just a new Screen + better speaker, and a lan port for the switch dock?

What? This feels like nintendo pulling a fast one on us.
You thought we were launching a new cool switch? ha.... heres same old switch, with a new screen!

Nintendo never even hinted at a pro model. The "leakers" can't be trusted.



Going to be a hard pass on that one.



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Shaunodon said:

One of the benefits of having an extremely successful product already on the market, is that you don't have to be in a rush to prepare a successor. The games people are suggesting should be held back for cross-gen have already been in development for several years. Going by your estimates, even if they only begun developing games for a Switch successor now, they'd still have a good chance of having them ready for a 2024 launch year.

Unless you believe in cliff-theory, what chance is there that Switch sales will begin to seriously decline before 2024? Even with the hypothetical of Nintendo wanting two successful systems on the market at once, why should they jeopradise the sales of Switch (already selling at a historic rate), when they can easily sustain it for a couple more years, have more time to prepare titles for a successor, and should still be able to have them co-exist well after that point too?

Nothing about a 2023 release seems rushed to me personally.

You don't need sales to fall off a cliff before you act to increase sales and maximise profits & revenue. Especially if the market and technology is ready for new devices (which is actually a more interesting topic imo, i.e what tech is affordable for a $399 device in 2023? Does it warrant a new platform)

Software wise, this is only positively affected with renewed interest in the Nintendo ecosystem, more outlets for third-party support and games which are late in the cycle will benefit from being showcased on new hardware, again I'm personally imagining Metroid Prime 4. Of course if Zelda isn't ready for 2022, then potentially it too. Maybe Bayo 3. All the meanwhile Switch's 130m userbase still exist and are still there for Nintendo to sell to. Most likely their ever greens keep charting until the Switch 2 versions replace them, nothing is at risk here.

Hardware wise, so a new system is released and sells a shit tonne and steals some late life sales from the Switch... Is Nintendo supposed to feel sad about that?Should Sony of released the PS5 in 2022 just so the PS4 could reach 130m? IDK, I think there's a bigger picture with long-term consumer engagement and conservation that people are not following when they obsess over unit sales.

I am certainly not saying a Switch 2023 is a given or anything, but its certainly reasonable. One thing we haven't yet touched on is the idea that internal Nintendo teams & partners probably also want more powerful hardware. Have you seen the frame rate on Pokemon Legends... yikes! 



Otter said:

3. Related to this, people seem to mainly understand console cycles and motives of companies in terms of units sold, the reality is companies care about $$$$, not units. You can make more money with 2 machines killing it than just one, and they don't have to cannibalize each other. Plenty of long-term Switch owners will be eager to buy new Nintendo hardware in 2023, meanwhile late adopters who are picking a Switch system 6-7 years late are a completely different audience altogether. You cannot treat them as one audience. The Switch OLED omitting any improvements for docked play/specs etc is not a trivial decision imo. It says a lot. 

That never really happened with nintendo though. The longest life after the release of the successor was basically 3DS. Everything else died quickly. And while PS1 and PS2 sold well after the release of the next machine, PS3 and PS4 dropped like stones with weights around their ankles once the next machine hit shelfes.



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