Shaunodon said:
One of the benefits of having an extremely successful product already on the market, is that you don't have to be in a rush to prepare a successor. The games people are suggesting should be held back for cross-gen have already been in development for several years. Going by your estimates, even if they only begun developing games for a Switch successor now, they'd still have a good chance of having them ready for a 2024 launch year. Unless you believe in cliff-theory, what chance is there that Switch sales will begin to seriously decline before 2024? Even with the hypothetical of Nintendo wanting two successful systems on the market at once, why should they jeopradise the sales of Switch (already selling at a historic rate), when they can easily sustain it for a couple more years, have more time to prepare titles for a successor, and should still be able to have them co-exist well after that point too? |
Nothing about a 2023 release seems rushed to me personally.
You don't need sales to fall off a cliff before you act to increase sales and maximise profits & revenue. Especially if the market and technology is ready for new devices (which is actually a more interesting topic imo, i.e what tech is affordable for a $399 device in 2023? Does it warrant a new platform)
Software wise, this is only positively affected with renewed interest in the Nintendo ecosystem, more outlets for third-party support and games which are late in the cycle will benefit from being showcased on new hardware, again I'm personally imagining Metroid Prime 4. Of course if Zelda isn't ready for 2022, then potentially it too. Maybe Bayo 3. All the meanwhile Switch's 130m userbase still exist and are still there for Nintendo to sell to. Most likely their ever greens keep charting until the Switch 2 versions replace them, nothing is at risk here.
Hardware wise, so a new system is released and sells a shit tonne and steals some late life sales from the Switch... Is Nintendo supposed to feel sad about that?Should Sony of released the PS5 in 2022 just so the PS4 could reach 130m? IDK, I think there's a bigger picture with long-term consumer engagement and conservation that people are not following when they obsess over unit sales.
I am certainly not saying a Switch 2023 is a given or anything, but its certainly reasonable. One thing we haven't yet touched on is the idea that internal Nintendo teams & partners probably also want more powerful hardware. Have you seen the frame rate on Pokemon Legends... yikes!