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Forums - Sales Discussion - Which console will sell the most in 2021?

         

Which console will sell the most 2021?

Series X/S 0 $0.00 0%
 
PS5 7 $4,000.00 9.86%
 
Switch 63 $38,282.00 88.73%
 
PS4 0 $0.00 0%
 
Xbox One 0 $0.00 0%
 
Game&Watch 1 $20.00 1.41%
 
 
Totals: 71 $42,302.00  
Game closed: 12/31/2020
Ryng on 26 November 2020

That's not even a question Switch will obliterate everything next year.



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Mnementh on 10 December 2020

I added the current state of things as of today to the OP. This boils down to these two graphs:

The data from the bets in this thread.

And this is from the three threads where you can bet on the the three main consoles next years sales.

Remember: Bets are still open till the end of the year.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Wman1996 on 10 December 2020

Call me crazy, but PS5 will take it.
Switch will do crazy well, but will probably drop at least a few million units from this year. There might even be a drop of 5 million or more. PS5 had the biggest console launch ever. Now that doesn't mean everything for momentum or lifetime sales, but it's something.
PS5 also has some key cross-gen, console exclusive, multiplats, and true exclusive games out next year. God of War V, Ratchet and Clank, Gran Turismo 7, Hogwarts Legacy (I foresee this one selling very well), Horizon Forbidden West, etc.
This is a more out there prediction. It's probably more likely that Switch will sell the most, and PS5 will place second. If Sony can't meet demand, that's even more the case.
Call it spite, being a contrarian, or whatever. But my bet is on the PS5.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Bofferbrauer2 on 30 December 2020
Mnementh said:
TomaTito said:

Let's bet VG$3,333.33 since we are three years in.

EDIT: Darn it, we can only bet 1k!

VGC has some safety against people betting their life... in virtual website currency?

Yeah, VGC is more considerate than AAA publishers with some all-ages games (I'm looking at you EA with Fifa and FUT!)



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

derpysquirtle64 on 30 December 2020

All in on Atari VCS



 

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Chrkeller on 30 December 2020

Switch is getting an original Monster Hunter, Japan will explode in sales. Switch with ease is my prediction.



Wyrdness on 30 December 2020
Wman1996 said:

Call me crazy, but PS5 will take it.
Switch will do crazy well, but will probably drop at least a few million units from this year. There might even be a drop of 5 million or more. PS5 had the biggest console launch ever. Now that doesn't mean everything for momentum or lifetime sales, but it's something.
PS5 also has some key cross-gen, console exclusive, multiplats, and true exclusive games out next year. God of War V, Ratchet and Clank, Gran Turismo 7, Hogwarts Legacy (I foresee this one selling very well), Horizon Forbidden West, etc.
This is a more out there prediction. It's probably more likely that Switch will sell the most, and PS5 will place second. If Sony can't meet demand, that's even more the case.
Call it spite, being a contrarian, or whatever. But my bet is on the PS5.

A drop of 5m from this year for the switch equates to 23m, considering the is a rumour that PS5's 2021 shipment is 16-18m that would still make Switch the highest seller next year by a comfortable margin. From that shipment alone Switch would need to drop 9-10m just for PS5 to be even and that's if the PS5 manages the 18m part.



Link_Nines.XBC on 30 December 2020

Imagine if the VgChartz money was real, it'd be the easiest 1000 dollars ever :P



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dmillos on 30 December 2020
Link_Nines.XBC said:

Imagine if the VgChartz money was real, it'd be the easiest 1000 dollars ever :P

This seems like a pretty safe bet, I didn't bet $1000 on it because I kind of want to be able to bet on more things until then. But also 2020 showed us that there is nothing we can take for granted. So it won't be over until it is all said and done. 



DAMA (Month Aligned) Gap Charts Explanation

Switch Data Analysis: May Update (NS has record best May Year 5)

PS5 Data Analysis: OCT Update (PS5 Second best console after 12 Months)

XS Data Analysis: APR Update (XS hits a road bump)

Mandalore76 on 30 December 2020
Wman1996 said:

Call me crazy, but PS5 will take it.
Switch will do crazy well, but will probably drop at least a few million units from this year. There might even be a drop of 5 million or more. PS5 had the biggest console launch ever. Now that doesn't mean everything for momentum or lifetime sales, but it's something.
PS5 also has some key cross-gen, console exclusive, multiplats, and true exclusive games out next year. God of War V, Ratchet and Clank, Gran Turismo 7, Hogwarts Legacy (I foresee this one selling very well), Horizon Forbidden West, etc.
This is a more out there prediction. It's probably more likely that Switch will sell the most, and PS5 will place second. If Sony can't meet demand, that's even more the case.
Call it spite, being a contrarian, or whatever. But my bet is on the PS5.

I expect the PS5 to sell very well, but I don't see it selling 20 million+ in it's first calendar year.