I keep hearing about how Game Pass is such a huge system seller but it hasn't really shown in the numbers. As for Bethesda, I expect their games to be timed exclusives and release on PS5 6-12 months later which I don't think will sway many people to Xbox.

I don't get why people put so much stock on launch numbers. Basically the first holiday, you sell what you can make. Microsoft could make fewer consoles and sony could make more. Simple as that. The real analysis begins after the first quarter at least. And I believe the first year tells the story of the console unless something drastic happens. So just have some patience and nothing we say at this point matters lest we want to make fools of ourselves

WiiU sold out mostly at launch, but in January the problems there visible. I also expect to get a better view on the situation in January numbers. This shows the real momentum going forward.

It's just that people keep acting like Gamepass and the Bethesda deal somehow guarantee Xbox Series will do better than Xbox One, but I think that's far from guaranteed and still up in the air. It might do them little to no good at all. For all we know Xbox Series could sell worse than Xbox One. The brand has definitely been diminished over the years and all its exclusives being shared with PC gives them less system selling power.

for the longevity of these new consoles, we need to wait untill mid summer to see their true baseline, after they stop having stock issues.
switch only took so long to keep up with demand casue they were being conservative. if you remember back in 2013, they massivly overproduced the wii U in the first year resulting in a tonne of unsold stock. I've heard that as much as half the wii Us on the market are ones produced in year one. and if you have stock of year one production its kinda hard to reduce price when your console was bade at 300 when its msrp is 350....
they didn't want a repeat of that.

ramping up production is neither fast nor cheap, we can even see that now, increased production lines for post ACNH is only now slowly going online....

at any rate, there is one thing for certain when it comes to the ps5: its going to lose. a lot. of marketshare in japan.
the ps4 already wasn't doing so hot in japan, the Wii U defending its numbers against it untill the switch was announced. it did get quite a bit of a boost in japan on the back of the vita there, with ps4/vita games coming to it, plus the ecosystem of psn being with the vita.

then the switch arrived, pretty much putting sony in a catch 22. make a handheld thats going to either be too expensive or too weak vs the switch, or follow in thier footsteps to compete but losing un the enourmous western market base to xbox. so they decided to drop the handheld, but this now has the side effect of having all thouse vita/ps4 devs migrating to switch.

I would never put money on the PS5 selling less than the Switch. It's Playstation!

Really? Why is that a good enough reason?

It has been one year, so I would like to update again. Sorry for the wall of text in advance.

As of September 30, 2021 (19 quarters)

Switch:

Japan- 22.06m (59.6%) +16%

Americas- 36.31m (62.6%) +16%

Europe- 23.60m (48.1%) +12%

Other- 10.89m (41.9%) +12%

Needs about 2.5 more years of peak sales to make it in Japan and America. 4-5 more years in Europe and Others.

Compare to top consoles at 18 quarters. (Switch still gets 1 quarter handicap.)

Japan (DS, 18 quarters): 26.39m (83.5%) +11%

Americas (Wii, 18 quarters): 41.18m (88.1%) +9%

Europe (PS2, 18 quarters): 31.41m (75%) +4%

Switch actually gained a little on the top consoles, due to having a later peak year, but it is still behind them.

@The_Liquid_Laser

Now @Ryng also predicted 170m and predicted 70m for Americas, it is now at 36.31m. He predicted year 5 to outsell year 4, but right now it is down YoY.

Disclaimer: I am not reviving this post to annoy or make fun of. I just find the Switch's sales trajectory quite interesting.

I also just realized that I didn't make a post about the actual thread last year, so I will do that now.

I am predicting quite early right now that the PS5 won't outsell the Switch or the PS4. Why? Because of Sony's actions. They want more profit, not Unit sales. I have been saying it for years. In addition, consoles are more front loaded these days, and with the limited supply of sensors, the sales potential is also limited.  PS5 might stay at $499 for years.

Do you think you could boil this all down to a single number?  How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?  If you want to break it down by region, that would be better, but really I am at least looking for one number.

I think the ceiling for the PS5 is 130mil and for the Switch the absolute floor is 135mil, but I'm expecting over 140mil.