Do you think PlayStation 5 sales will be as good as Nintendo Switch sales?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Farsala said:

Farsala said:

For such high numbers I usually like to go math + comparisons to the highest selling consoles from each region. But first lets compare to your prediction.

As of October 1, 2020 (15 quarters)

Switch-

Japan: 16.1m (43%)

Americas: 26.5m (46%)

Europe: 17.7m (36%)

Other: 7.8m  (30%)

So from your prediction alone, it is lagging pretty far behind in Europe and Others for a chance. But the question becomes, is 15 quarters past its halfway selling point or not? The answer is usually a resounding yes in Japan and America, but less so in Europe. The reason being is late launches in territories not yet launched in, but the Switch has already launched in most territories.

Next lets compare to the top consoles at 15 quarters. Actually I can only find data for 14 quarters, so Switch gets a handicap. And for others I cannot find good data.

Japan (DS, 14 quarters): 22.38m (72%)

America (Wii, 14 quarters): 33.4m (79%)

Europe (PS2, 14 quarters): 24.79m (71%)

So while you predict it to surpass the top consoles, it is currently not on pace to do that.

Also as a side note, while I was searching for these numbers, I happened upon a PS2 thread discussing its final sales. All estimates put it between 159.2m and 161.9m. So I was a little high, my bad.

It has been one year, so I would like to update again. Sorry for the wall of text in advance.

As of September 30, 2021 (19 quarters)

Switch:

Japan- 22.06m (59.6%) +16%

Americas- 36.31m (62.6%) +16%

Europe- 23.60m (48.1%) +12%

Other- 10.89m (41.9%) +12%

Needs about 2.5 more years of peak sales to make it in Japan and America. 4-5 more years in Europe and Others.

Compare to top consoles at 18 quarters. (Switch still gets 1 quarter handicap.)

Japan (DS, 18 quarters): 26.39m (83.5%) +11%

Americas (Wii, 18 quarters): 41.18m (88.1%) +9%

Europe (PS2, 18 quarters): 31.41m (75%) +4%

Switch actually gained a little on the top consoles, due to having a later peak year, but it is still behind them.

@The_Liquid_Laser

Now @Ryng also predicted 170m and predicted 70m for Americas, it is now at 36.31m. He predicted year 5 to outsell year 4, but right now it is down YoY.

Disclaimer: I am not reviving this post to annoy or make fun of. I just find the Switch's sales trajectory quite interesting.

I also just realized that I didn't make a post about the actual thread last year, so I will do that now.

I am predicting quite early right now that the PS5 won't outsell the Switch or the PS4. Why? Because of Sony's actions. They want more profit, not Unit sales. I have been saying it for years. In addition, consoles are more front loaded these days, and with the limited supply of sensors, the sales potential is also limited.  PS5 might stay at $499 for years.

Do you think you could boil this all down to a single number?  How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?  If you want to break it down by region, that would be better, but really I am at least looking for one number.