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Forums - Sales Discussion - Before The Switch Launched, What was your sales prediction for the Switch?


Sales Prediction BEFORE Switch Launched:

<13Million 0 0%
13-25M 3 3.95%
25-40M 7 9.21%
40-60M 14 18.42%
60-80M 22 28.95%
80-100M 15 19.74%
100M+ 15 19.74%

At the bottom of this post is a link to a blog post I made August 25, 2016.  In it I predicted the success of the Nintendo Switch (or NX).  I also spent a lot of time explaining how the PS4 Pro (Neo) and XBox1 X (Scorpio) wouldn't do much.  There was a common narrative at the time that Switch would fail, because of the other companies' upgrades, and I was dispelling this myth.

I didn't give a number at the time, but I probably would have said in the 100m-120m range.

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Way too low.

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I think I said that I would be satisfied if they manage to make it around 50M-60M. Which is a target that will be beaten in less than 4 years.

But I was also a mild salty gamer who thought the Switch needed to be a powerful home console like PS4 Pro and believed Super Metal Dave as the 2nd coming of Christ on YouTube.

Oooh, I changed so much since then ...

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I never had a solid prediction but I thought 60-70m was the bare minimum needed to not be considered a failure because the Switch would be absorbing the install bases for the 3DS, Wii U and Vita. Even now, I predict 135-140m but wouldn't be surprised if the Switch exceeds that and proves me very wrong.

No idea. I'm sure we had a thread, though. Just dig that thing up.
Personally I skipped all of the NX threads. Didn't even look at them. I hate "unconfirmed rumors". Once they announced the Switch, however, I had total faith in Nintendo and pre-ordered the second the option was available. Maybe I tossed a sales figure out there but I'm really really really really bad at predicting things.

Twitter: @d21lewis

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I thought it could do somewhere between 120-150m assuming Switch Lite and TV would sell similar numbers to the hybrid platform.

This was also back wheb Pokemon Stars was rumoured and I imagined a truly modern feeling Pokemon RPG.

When I saw the October reveal trailer, I knew the Switch would be around for a long time and would be a massive success. It was the natural evolution of Nintendo's Handhelds and Home Consoles in one, so yeah I thought this would be a 100M seller at least. They get to have all their teams on one device and that really helps with software output and I still don't think we've seen the full extent of this just yet.

Last edited by Ljink96 - on 07 June 2020

350 million

 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Despite lacking the horsepower of a home console, Switch is the default handheld left. And at that, it's a very powerful one. In my very pessimistic moments, I acknowledged the possibility that the Switch would do almost as bad as the Wii U, or right around the GameCube. But I barely thought that way. I thought early on that it could at least approach the lifetime sales of the NES.
After launch, I started to think it would likely outsell the 3DS. And I've gradually gone up in the last year. Now, I think it will outsell the Wii by at least a few million units (also matching or surpassing the PS1).
So I voted 60-80 million.

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

NightlyPoe said:
javi741 said:

Along with the fact that the Nintendo Switch Presentation really gave me vibes that Nintendo didn't really learn from the mistakes of the Wii U by trying to appeal to a casual market with focusing on motion controls and games like 1-2Switch

I'd like to point out that in that Switch Presentation was every game of the 2017 lineup (except the Pokken Tournament port).  A near-legendary lineup that, by the end of the year, received universal acclaim for its depth, quality, appeal to all levels of gamers, and variety and was regarded as perhaps the best launch year in the industry's history.

So... yeah.  Sometimes you just can't please everyone.  Especially on the internet.

I never said the Switch would be fully casual, there were hardcore games on the Wii as well but most people who brought a Wii didn't buy it for the hardcore games. While I knew the Switch would have hardcore games on it, I didn't think it'll be enough because we've seen hardcore Nintendo games on the N64 & GC but they both still sold under whelmingly due to a lack of 3rd Party support. And I felt like Nintendo trying to appeal to the casuals again would've tarnished the system's image to more hardcore gamers as being a casual BS console like the Wii U.