I was initially sceptical about the Switch. But in early 2017 (either shortly before or after the launch), when some people said the "highly optimistic" target for Nintendo would be to sell as much as Wii U + 3DS combined, I argued Nintendo should instead aim at DS level sales (150m units) and I remember multiple posters arguing against me when I cited business books to prove the Switch had the potential to achieve that goal. I still stand by that prediction: If Nintendo focuses on a mainstream audience and produces high quality games for the mass market they can sell 150m+ Switch units.

The whole 3DS + Wii U comparisons is just doesnt make sense to me. Like I have 2 3DS and 1 Wii U = 3. While I have 1 Switch = 1. 

I called the wiiu a flop before it flopped and started the idea of the switch outselling anything in my generation prediction thread

So, I went over some of my old posts and couldn't find a concrete 150m prediction before launch. However, in this thread from May 2017 I argued the Switch would sell very well to women once the right software hit the market and said the Switch would sell more than the Wii. In February I said people who doubted the Switch would sell more than 20m units lived in fantasy land. And in February 2017 I said it was "entirely possible" for the Switch to outsell the Wii if Nintendo played their cards right. In general, right from the start I argued Nintendo should focus on the mass market, needed women to buy the system and had the potential to beat the Wii. So I feel pretty good about this  I also said 1-2-Switch and Labo didn't look like mass market smash hits to me, which I also feel pretty good about

Yeah but there can be an equal amount of people that bought 1 3DS for a whole family or 1 Wii U to succeed their Wii and instead got 2 switches for whatever reason. Personal anecdotes don't really mean much to me. All consoles have multiple ownership.

The 3DS+ Wii U comparison is simply because Nintendo decided the Switch was a hybrid.

You missed his point he has a 3DS and a WiiU which a significant number of people would also do, that's 2 units while that same consumer this time round would only get 1 Switch so if even half the WiiU owners had a 3DS that would mean 7m consumers who would only buy one unit of hardware this time round instead of the same group of consumers generating 14m last time.

That's a nice find, indeed! The crazy thing is I remember both of us arguing almost the same things back in 2007 when the Wii had just launched. 

You actually predicted more than 100M in my thread (in January 2017), something that holds up pretty well today:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8247626

Again I don't really care about the personal anecdotes. Sure there are people out there with 2 3DS and a Wii U and only 1 Switch. There are also people out there with 5 3DS, 2 Wii Us and 1 Switch. But the reverse is true too. My friend has 2 Switch 0 3DS and a Wii U.

It doesn't really matter to me, because it could never be measured.

The 3DS+ Wii U= Switch comparison, does not literally mean that I expect each consumer of 3DS and Wii U to buy a Switch. A Switch owner is a Switch owner, and that is that.

It is just an arbitrary number that I expected the Switch to beat, and that is all.

Wow. I can't believe I chose 10-20 million lifetime in the poll. I don't remember why I chose that one. Maybe I was basing it on Wii U sales? Or I chose that hoping to be wrong about the prediction? Either way, I'm glad the Switch doing great!