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Forums - Sales Discussion - Before The Switch Launched, What was your sales prediction for the Switch?

 

Sales Prediction BEFORE Switch Launched:

<13Million 0 0%
 
13-25M 3 3.95%
 
25-40M 7 9.21%
 
40-60M 14 18.42%
 
60-80M 22 28.95%
 
80-100M 15 19.74%
 
100M+ 15 19.74%
 
Total:76
Mnementh said:

I made a poll asking for the sales back in january 2017. More than half of voters expected less than 50%. Less than 10% of voters choose '>100M'.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224679

I myself was expecting 50M.

There's the poll I was thinking of.

I reckon a fair few folks are not owning up to their wrong predictions. ;)



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:
Mnementh said:

I made a poll asking for the sales back in january 2017. More than half of voters expected less than 50%. Less than 10% of voters choose '>100M'.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224679

I myself was expecting 50M.

There's the poll I was thinking of.

I reckon a fair few folks are not owning up to their wrong predictions. ;)

I'm surprised how well Rol's prediction holds up. And also that quite some Nintendo-fans were pretty pessimistic, myself included.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [1], [2], [3], [4]

Mnementh said:
curl-6 said:

There's the poll I was thinking of.

I reckon a fair few folks are not owning up to their wrong predictions. ;)

I'm surprised how well Rol's prediction holds up. And also that quite some Nintendo-fans were pretty pessimistic, myself included.

In our defense, it was hard not to be pessimistic after the hellish extended shitshow that was 2011-2016. :P



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
Mnementh said:

I'm surprised how well Rol's prediction holds up. And also that quite some Nintendo-fans were pretty pessimistic, myself included.

In our defense, it was hard not to be pessimistic after the hellish extended shitshow that was 2011-2016. :P

Yeah, Nintendo lost a lot of trust even from fans with the WiiU.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [1], [2], [3], [4]

I was initially sceptical about the Switch. But in early 2017 (either shortly before or after the launch), when some people said the "highly optimistic" target for Nintendo would be to sell as much as Wii U + 3DS combined, I argued Nintendo should instead aim at DS level sales (150m units) and I remember multiple posters arguing against me when I cited business books to prove the Switch had the potential to achieve that goal. I still stand by that prediction: If Nintendo focuses on a mainstream audience and produces high quality games for the mass market they can sell 150m+ Switch units.



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Ljink96 said:

When I saw the October reveal trailer, I knew the Switch would be around for a long time and would be a massive success. It was the natural evolution of Nintendo's Handhelds and Home Consoles in one, so yeah I thought this would be a 100M seller at least. They get to have all their teams on one device and that really helps with software output and I still don't think we've seen the full extent of this just yet.

An actual post of yours from March 2017 had you predict 50-60m lifetime.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8359338

While this may look like I am specifically picking on you, you merely happen to be a concrete example of a guy who posted in this thread and has a memory that differs from reality (multiple old threads got bumped today and your old post happened to be in a stack of quotes on the final page of the thread I lifted your post from). The topic that people may be misremembering their own predictions has been brought up in this thread here and I am sure you aren't the only one. Hence why the poll in this thread doesn't seem representative of reality at all.

Your 50-60m prediction looks bad in hindsight, but at the time you made it, you were still on the optimistic side of the spectrum, so there were a ton of people who made worse predictions.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Farsala said:
>3DS+Wii U is all I expected since Nintendo decided to replace them both.

So 86m+, which happens to also outsell the 360, PSP and PS3.

The whole 3DS + Wii U comparisons is just doesnt make sense to me. Like I have 2 3DS and 1 Wii U = 3. While I have 1 Switch = 1. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

I called the wiiu a flop before it flopped and started the idea of the switch outselling anything in my generation prediction thread



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

So, I went over some of my old posts and couldn't find a concrete 150m prediction before launch. However, in this thread from May 2017 I argued the Switch would sell very well to women once the right software hit the market and said the Switch would sell more than the Wii. In February I said people who doubted the Switch would sell more than 20m units lived in fantasy land. And in February 2017 I said it was "entirely possible" for the Switch to outsell the Wii if Nintendo played their cards right. In general, right from the start I argued Nintendo should focus on the mass market, needed women to buy the system and had the potential to beat the Wii. So I feel pretty good about this  I also said 1-2-Switch and Labo didn't look like mass market smash hits to me, which I also feel pretty good about



Jranation said:
Farsala said:
>3DS+Wii U is all I expected since Nintendo decided to replace them both.

So 86m+, which happens to also outsell the 360, PSP and PS3.

The whole 3DS + Wii U comparisons is just doesnt make sense to me. Like I have 2 3DS and 1 Wii U = 3. While I have 1 Switch = 1. 

Yeah but there can be an equal amount of people that bought 1 3DS for a whole family or 1 Wii U to succeed their Wii and instead got 2 switches for whatever reason. Personal anecdotes don't really mean much to me. All consoles have multiple ownership.

The 3DS+ Wii U comparison is simply because Nintendo decided the Switch was a hybrid.